Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

West winds in the lower levels is developing...With a LLC at around 12 north/38.5 west. Convection looks to be placed over it...Another wave or sharp wave at 10/34 west.

So its worth watching...

[WindRunner]

UKMET is not off

It just develops the system behind this one

Yeah, I know it's not off - I'm just saying that the only blue line (UKMET line) on that map is the one for the system behind 98, and since that is the only plot that remotely points towards a fish, then it should be ignored as it is not for 98L and 98L (at this point in the game) will most likely NOT be a fish.

[Rainband]

Agreed...Spoke with KFDM chief met on Thursday night...after the 1st week in Sept, the conditions will be ripe for our area if something develops....IF

Trough SE US will send stuff out that way until then...

With all due respect..You have got to be kidding me. You guys had me convinced that Ernesto was going to the central GOM. Look where he wound up. One thing I have learned from this experience is not to Listen to outlooks that are too far out. Ernesto was a lesson to all of us. Anything is possible and nothing is certain

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a surface feature spinning under that convection.

[Steve H.]

98L looking very good this evening, with large puffy cumulonimbus dotting the western side of a developing circulation. This should be our first bonifide hurricane. And Not a fish, though its ridiculous to bring that up now..

[Sanibel]

I'd wait for it to convect first.

[perk]

Rainband i could'nt agree with you more. Ernesto's initial track took it to Mexico, and we all know where it ended up. I'm gonna take all track info if this developes with a grain of salt.

[Cookiely]

Sushi storm.....
No
It's looks like a Miami storm to me.
No.
Surely, it is headed for New Orleans.
"Please don't call me Shirley."
No
The Tampa Force Field Generator needs more power. Scotty..... Scotty... we need more power.
No
We need more Data? Brent Spiner, Where are you?

No it will cross Miami, Short out Tampa's force field generator, shoot north Graze Pensacola, Bounce off New Orleans and ricochet into Houston. Where it will then interact with a trough, become extra-tropical and race off towards the north-east. Kind of like a giant GOM Pinball Game.
There I think should just about cover every body...

Hopefully that will satisfy everyone on the board. No favorites

[Rainband]

Rainband i could'nt agree with you more. Ernesto's initial track took it to Mexico, and we all know where it ended up. I'm gonna take all track info if this developes with a grain of salt.

I agree. I think, as I said before that Ernesto was a wake up call to Everyone. The fact that mother nature can throw a curve ball into everything..convinces me not to hinge on Model forecasts days out. The ULL threw a wrench into everything and it appears that we were all taught something this go around. None of the Models saw it and it made the forecast a crap shoot. Sobering but true.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeff Masters said this has the potential to become a TD by Sunday, and even mentioned that the SHIPS model takes it up to hurricane strength by that same point. He thinks it will probably be heading for the islands/caribbean. Here is the link to his blog:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200609

[fci]

This system isn't too exciting... I think the NHC just realized that we would soon be restless once again after Ernesto was history... So here we are with 98L... The previous 98L was much better.

Which one was the last 98L?

[bellavista2]

Out on a limb--
Greenland

Maybe the new rule is that it has to be next to an actual body of terra firma where human beings actually live before we get too fired up as a poster on page 3 suggested. (The folks in the big boats already know where it is)

The rain in Atlanta for the entire summer, including last night, is more impressive than this, ie, more inches of rain and more wind.
Of course we also had more rain and wind than most of Fl had from Ernie.

[wxman57]

I don't think that anyone can say that there is an LLC associated with this disturbance. There are no surface obs, and we cannot see the lowest-level clouds on IR imagery. You'd just be guessing based upon looking at mid-level cloud rotation. Remember that disturbance near the eastern Caribbean 3-4 weeks ago that looked like a TS (even to me) but recon found no LLC? You'll just have to wait for some observations to conclude that there is an LLC with a system this weak.

That said, I agree it has the potential to develop. Chances are exponentially high because I've worked 12 days at 12-15 hours a day and finally plan to have a weekend off!

[jasons2k]

This system isn't too exciting... I think the NHC just realized that we would soon be restless once again after Ernesto was history... So here we are with 98L... The previous 98L was much better.

Which one was the last 98L?

It was in the western GOM and was forming a LLC just as it was making "landfall" along the mid-Texas coast.

[cycloneye]

I don't think that anyone can say that there is an LLC associated with this disturbance. There are no surface obs, and we cannot see the lowest-level clouds on IR imagery. You'd just be guessing based upon looking at mid-level cloud rotation. Remember that disturbance near the eastern Caribbean 3-4 weeks ago that looked like a TS (even to me) but recon found no LLC? You'll just have to wait for some observations to conclude that there is an LLC with a system this weak.

That said, I agree it has the potential to develop. Chances are exponentially high because I've worked 12 days at 12-15 hours a day and finally plan to have a weekend off!

wxman57,the first chance to get observations will be from this bouy located at 14.6n-46w. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

And even then if the center passes south of that bouy we wont see the full data.You deserve a rest after many hours of work.But the break may not be too long.

[CrazyC83]

If this develops (right now I think it is 30% likely), it will NOT be , I agree. It is likely headed for the Caribbean or just north of there.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't think that anyone can say that there is an LLC associated with this disturbance. There are no surface obs, and we cannot see the lowest-level clouds on IR imagery. You'd just be guessing based upon looking at mid-level cloud rotation. Remember that disturbance near the eastern Caribbean 3-4 weeks ago that looked like a TS (even to me) but recon found no LLC? You'll just have to wait for some observations to conclude that there is an LLC with a system this weak.

That said, I agree it has the potential to develop. Chances are exponentially high because I've worked 12 days at 12-15 hours a day and finally plan to have a weekend off!

Well many times we have all said something like "It appears to be doing X based on satellite." Until there is some more evidence we can't be sure of a real LLC. One thing though...is this not the wave that came off Africa N of the CV islands with a 1200nm circulation. There was definite QS at that time and this looks like the same circ tightened up. I "believe" there is a strong circ there at any rate

{edit}
Man...Duh the circ to the NW of 98L was the one that I was talking about above. Still strong circ on both.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

8 PM Discussion.

[CrazyC83]

If it survives the next 24 hours, it is virtually out of the SAL completely.

[Zardoz]

There's definitely a surface feature spinning under that convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Is there also a second one just coming into view on the eastern edge of that image?