Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[Acral]

Way early but I smell fish

[ROCK]

Needs to consolidate some and has some 20knt shear to contend with from the south.

LINK

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Hard to tell if it is pulling up to me...


EDIT: URL changed to link -- senorpepr.

[Grease Monkey]

Based on those plots, I don't know how anyone can conclude that it will be a fish.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like slow to develop, which spells westerly track for a while anyway.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8v4km.html

[wxman57]

anyone else think it is a fish?

I wouldn't be so sure it's a "fish". While the NAO is in the tank (strongly negative), it will come down to a matter of timing and intensity. The disturbance could become a threat to the eastern Caribbean Sea in 6 days. The BAMs may not be a good set os models to use in this case, as the Bermuda High is changing its position/strength significantly over the coming days.

So it's something to watch, particularly if you're in the NE Caribbean. As for the east coast, that's a LONG way out. Impossible to determine if it'll be a threat. Again, it'll come down to the timing of any development and speed of movement.

[Dynamic]

It's too early to think that this will be a fish. I really believe that this could be a threat to the Lesser Antilles.

[dwg71]

This is definately a Houston kind of storm...

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.4N 37.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 03.09.2006 13.4N 37.2W WEAK

12UTC 03.09.2006 14.4N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2006 17.1N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2006 18.6N 43.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2006 19.6N 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2006 19.7N 47.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2006 20.4N 49.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2006 21.9N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2006 22.7N 52.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2006 23.7N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



UKMET is way off in that initial plot as it starts more north and east of the currect low at 11n-38w.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

anyone else think it is a fish?

I wouldn't be so sure it's a "fish". While the NAO is in the tank (strongly negative), it will come down to a matter of timing and intensity. The disturbance could become a threat to the eastern Caribbean Sea in 6 days. The BAMs may not be a good set os models to use in this case, as the Bermuda High is changing its position/strength significantly over the coming days.

So it's something to watch, particularly if you're in the NE Caribbean. As for the east coast, that's a LONG way out. Impossible to determine if it'll be a threat. Again, it'll come down to the timing of any development and speed of movement.

I will definetely watch this one as the TAFB forecast calls for a future threat to us in the northern islands...

[clfenwi]

Visible shot of the area...note the dust to the north of the wave.

Also note that the BAMs show an 'inverted' situation with regards to track/intensity. They show a weaker system going further north (the shallow BAM puts it north of 20° by the end of the period) while BAMM and BAMD show stronger/deeper system going west (and after posting this, I see wxman57's wise word of caution regarding them).

[perk]

dwg71 please don't start up another Texas/Florida war. It is way too early for that.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree Wxman, I am just crystal balling based on a couple runs of the GFS and and a smattering of climo. I just wanted to get something out there for fun while this system is in the fun stages.

GFS has the high migrating back East and a couple troughs, and that looks about right this time of year.

[edited east vs west]

[gilbert88]

How can anyone say this one "looks like" a fish storm this far out? Please stop guessing, that kind of bogus information gets mixed up with the useful one.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah I have to agree Gilbert88 it is too far out to predict a fish storm. My thinking is wait
until more data is in and then decide whether it is a fish or not.

[dwg71]

dwg71 please don't start up another Texas/Florida war. It is way too early for that.

It was an attempt to add to the humor, calling anything during the first few minutes of an invest is a stretch. If it was near 15N or 20N, yeah it would be easier to call a fish, but not at 11.

[WindRunner]

The funny thing is that those model plots point towards the Caribbean or an east coast brush . . . neither of which is a "fish." The only one on the chart pointing fish is the UKMET plot for the wave behind this one.

[Derek Ortt]

UKMET is not off

It just develops the system behind this one

[DanKellFla]

Sushi storm.....
No
It's looks like a Miami storm to me.
No.
Surely, it is headed for New Orleans.
"Please don't call me Shirley."
No
The Tampa Force Field Generator needs more power. Scotty..... Scotty... we need more power.
No
We need more Data? Brent Spiner, Where are you?

[CronkPSU]

holy schnikes....LBAR is the model that actually looks like it makes the most sense...someone note this for future reference!

[CronkPSU]

The Tampa Force Field Generator needs more power. Scotty..... Scotty... we need more power.
No
We need more Data? Brent Spiner, Where are you?

where is that we need more recon gif of walken?