Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here we go

[Sanibel]

Nothing on NRL about it.

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

Nothing on NRL about it.

I refreshed the page and it came up.

[ThunderMate]

I had a feeling they would wait until after ernesto was inalnd to look eastward and even think about putting up another invest. I got hit hard by ernesto and am already ready for the next one...amzingly i kept power?!? anyways back on topic. I think it has some potential based on models and NHC analysis.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Code: Select all

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060901  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060901  1800   060902  0600   060902  1800   060903  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.0N  38.2W   11.3N  40.5W   11.4N  42.5W   11.5N  44.0W
  BAMM    11.0N  38.2W   11.1N  40.1W   11.3N  41.6W   11.6N  42.6W
  A98E    11.0N  38.2W   11.1N  40.9W   11.3N  43.5W   11.2N  45.7W
  LBAR    11.0N  38.2W   11.4N  40.7W   12.1N  43.0W   13.1N  45.5W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          38KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          38KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060903  1800   060904  1800   060905  1800   060906  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.7N  45.1W   12.1N  47.1W   11.9N  49.7W   11.9N  53.2W
  BAMM    12.2N  43.5W   12.8N  45.5W   11.6N  47.6W   10.2N  50.2W
  A98E    11.2N  47.8W   12.0N  51.5W   12.9N  55.2W   14.4N  59.1W
  LBAR    14.0N  47.9W   16.2N  51.8W   18.4N  55.6W   21.0N  59.8W
  SHIP        47KTS          62KTS          69KTS          70KTS
  DSHP        47KTS          62KTS          69KTS          70KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  38.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
  LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  35.5W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
  LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  31.4W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Zardoz]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

Definitely getting interesting out there...

[rnbaida]

can someone display the forecast positions for this invest?

[Brent]

[rnbaida]

this looks like a fish....

[Sanibel]

Already starting to pull up.

[rnbaida]

anyone else think it is a fish?

[Blown Away]

this looks like a fish....

You can conclude fish out of those models??

[Brent]

anyone else think it is a fish?

Uh no. It may be a fish but I can't say with certainty right now. Give it a couple of days.

[rnbaida]

This will most likely be a fish... it needs at least 3 or more days to develop...

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed...Spoke with KFDM chief met on Thursday night...after the 1st week in Sept, the conditions will be ripe for our area if something develops....IF

Trough SE US will send stuff out that way until then...

[fci]

Over/under on the number of pages/threads 98L will generate on S2K???

[Cyclenall]

anyone else think it is a fish?

Nope, not at all. I don't think it will form for another 48 hours.

[rnbaida]

To anyone who doesnt know what a fish is.... it is a invest or system that curves out to sea...Like Debby

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow, fish calls on the first model runs

The Ridge trough forecast setup by the GFS looks like anything first week of Sept. that gains decent height, will be re-curved around the ridge. 50/50 fish storms or East Coast threats ( Islands too) is my call heh firmly on the fence I sit