Ernesto coming to Toronto? Not a stupid question, I'm asking

[conestogo_flood]

A special weather statement issued by WFO Toronto for southern Ontario at 514am EDT.

..THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO EXPECTED TO DELIVER A WET
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO..

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT
STILL RETAIN SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER INDIANA WILL STEER THE
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOMORROW. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND THEN ENVELOP MOST REGIONS LATER IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL TEND
TO LINGER ON SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE STALLS OVER THE AREA...BUT
WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4O TO 60 MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALES.
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40 GUSTING 60 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS ACCOMPANIED BY AUTUMNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
THE WINDS SHOULD ABATE ON SUNDAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTERACTION OF
ERNESTO WITH THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE REGION AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA. THIS INTERACTION WILL
DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS
WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENTS OF ERNESTO CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY.

[conestogo_flood]

It's not like this was a stupid question or anything, I just wanted to know if it really is. I've been hearing it isn't, and it is, and that there isn't too much certainty about what it is going to do. Does 2 to 4 inches of rain sound right for southern Ontario this weekend? Also, how bad could the wind be, EC says 25 mph to 38 mph. I haven't heard of any flood watches issued, I got my window open to hear the flood siren if one is issued. I live on a flood plain, and this is pretty concerning if anything is to happen.

[Brent]

Yes... you can expect a wet weekend. Wind shouldn't be much of an issue though it will be a bit breezy.

This is for Buffalo, NY just across the border from you.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=143

[conestogo_flood]

Alright, just heard the bulletin on the radio. The Grand River Conservation Authority is putting a flood watch out for the Grand River Watershed and low lying areas effective tomorrow morning at 500am. I guess this is reason for concern now. How worried should I be really, this area floods with 2 inches of rain, not major floods but the roads go under. I don't want a repeat of the July 2003 flood when we had 10 inches of rain across the area and there was 2 feet of water outside, and our basement flooded.

[jdray]

Some winds and rain. Think of an extended summer thunderstorm that drags on for hours without the hail and lightning....

[Steve]

Outside of your basement, it's probably not a big thing. By the time it gets to Buffalo, London or wherever, it's just going to be a rainmaker. You see stronger low pressures coming through there all the time. The only thing I'd worry about (and it was noted in your forecast discussion) is the possibility of some stalling. I wouldn't worry about it too much, but if you have access to sandbags or keep them in your basement, you should be fine if you ring off your area of water access.

Steve

[conestogo_flood]

Outside of your basement, it's probably not a big thing. By the time it gets to Buffalo, London or wherever, it's just going to be a rainmaker. You see stronger low pressures coming through there all the time. The only thing I'd worry about (and it was noted in your forecast discussion) is the possibility of some stalling. I wouldn't worry about it too much, but if you have access to sandbags or keep them in your basement, you should be fine if you ring off your area of water access.

Steve

The area has a levee system and mass drainage system, plus a siren. It's up to my parents if they want to get sand bags or not, but we do own as pump to get water out of the basement in the event. I'll be listening for the siren this weekend, if it sounds then the levee's will close and Shand Dam is thus opened fully. EC now says 30 to 60mm of rain, so I hope we are in the clear. Hurricane Dennis remnants dropped 112mm of rain on the county last year, all we had was flooded roads, so I hope this is no big potatoes. We usually don't get over 20mm of rain from anything. EC though now says winds gusting to 80kmh, so that could be a problem since my neighbourhood is still under construction. If we get big winds there is a lot of stuff blowing around, usually just light stuff though. But, we had a wind storm in 2004 that knocked over a house under construction, it was wild.

[Trugunzn]

Ernesto may not even arrive at toronto. Looks its riden up the coast

[CrazyC83]

I personally don't think so - the ridge over northern Ontario will hold it down.