Why Was Ernesto Weak?

[Sanibel]

Just look at EPAC and the two intense cyclones over there.

This is a good case of EPAC strong - Atlantic weak (though it isn't always a direct relationship).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just look at EPAC and the two intense cyclones over there.

This is a good case of EPAC strong - Atlantic weak (though it isn't always a direct relationship).

Perhaps some El-Nino-ish factors are making EPAC more active and the
Atlantic less. This is similar to 1997, although we do not have an El Nino
anywhere near as intense as we did in 1997.

[gilbert88]

2002 would be a much better analogy, I don't think the ATL season will end up as inactive as 1997.

[Thunder44]

Ernesto was weak because it interacted with landmass too much and the atmospheric environment wasn't as favorable for development as most models forecasted.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2002 would be a much better analogy, I don't think the ATL season will end up as inactive as 1997.

2006 will very likely be much more active than 1997, and above
normal, but with some minor El Nino-ish conditions having
minor effects on the activity in the Atlantic.

2006 will still likely be quite active. I agree, 2002 is a better analogy
than 1997 for 2006.

[Andrew92]

I agree that 2006 is an El Nino year, but more to the 2002 level than 1997. You look at 1997, and NOTHING was developing (except in July of course). You look at 2002, you got an occasional storm here and there, though they were all struggling. Of the two variations, we're getting the occasional struggling storm so far, although 2006 has had one hurricane so far, and by this time in 2002, we still hadn't had a hurricane.

Still, both 1997 and 2002 saw one hurricane make landfall in the United States. Heck 2002, saw several other weaker tropical storms as well. The best analog for this year is 2002, in my opinion.

Yes, Ernesto was weak because he interacted with a lot of land. But, when he wasn't interacting with land, except for in the Caribbean, he wasn't intensifying. It seems like there's more shear than the last couple years (a plus). Still, the fact that he even briefly became a hurricane at one point spills, to me, that we still have a little ways to go. I now predict 6 more tropical storms, 3 or 4 of them hurricanes.

If the Atlantic side isn't enough proof of El Nino, look at the Pacific. Oh I'm not discounting the fact that the WPAC has not been active as it should be. However, I'm noticing some characteristics in other parts of the Pacific that seem Nino-ish to me as well. Daniel becoming nearly a Category 5 hurricane is usually (though not always, look at 1998's Howard) a sign of an El Nino. Ileana got going early and while she didn't quite get as strong as I thought she would, the fact that she organized quickly *may* be another sign of El Nino. John is rapidly deepening, and I wonder if this may become a Category 5. Not saying it will, but it's VERY possible at this point.

And the icing on the cake that convinces me that 2006 is an El Nino year. The storm I have called "the most amazing storm of 2006 so far." That storm is, of course, Hurricane/Super Typhoon Ioke. This is our first long-tracking CPAC storm since at least 2002's Typhoon Ele, and will now have a longer life than that storm. It also has had the intensity of storms like Oliwa and Paka in 1997.

A little off-topic, I remember some posts earlier this summer about some people thinking next year would be the quiet, El Nino year. I disagree with that, I think the quieter, El Nino year is NOW. I know it's early to make 2007 predictions, but as of right now, I think 2007 could be a more active year than some people think.

This El Nino is probably what caused the shear that has kept storms at bay, even storms like Ernesto that were supposed to strengthen. However, this type of shear did not prevent one storm named Andrew back in 1992 from doing what he did. So keep your guard up just in case, because it still only takes one......

I'm not an expert on El Nino either by any means, but this year does seem Nino-ish to me, to 2002's level.

-Andrew92

[curtadams]

Good points that the hurricane seasons have been El Nino-ish in many ways. But I though the water led the air in El Nino and the water just started shifting to El Nino. How could we already be having strong El Nino atmospheric conditions?

[MiamiensisWx]

Good points that the hurricane seasons have been El Nino-ish in many ways. But I though the water led the air in El Nino and the water just started shifting to El Nino. How could we already be having strong El Nino atmospheric conditions?

I believe the low SOI and related factors (such as solar wind synoptics) may be contributing to the more El Nino-like atmospheric conditions, in tandem with the developing El Nino.

To add to that note, Pacific subsurface and SST/atmospheric SOI patterns also support a borderline weak/moderate El Nino this winter. Pacific SSTs are now catching up with the SOI...

Current Pacific SST anomalies

Along with the other factors, Pacific SST (and subsurface) patterns are now showing a VERY CLEAR signal for an El Nino, as evidenced in that Pacific SST current map.

[Jim Hughes]

Good points that the hurricane seasons have been El Nino-ish in many ways. But I though the water led the air in El Nino and the water just started shifting to El Nino. How could we already be having strong El Nino atmospheric conditions?

That's because your going by what you have heard before and the community as a whole hasn't a clue how to predict the EL Nino. And it's the propaganda on this board that supports this nonsense.

I realize very well that posts like this irk some people but it also works the other way around. We need to quit patting people on the back when they fail. Even if the public thinks that these people "should " know better.

Results are what matter and Ernesto's tracking error should also be a wake up call here.

[windycity]

I have my reasonings for thinking it will be a below average year, its because the nature of science is a delicate balance. We had a record breaking year last year, therefore, this s eason is the oppisite. That is why we have cycles.

[Sanibel]

We are very analogous to 1934, the year following the previous record year of 1933. 1934 also had a limited number of weak systems compared to the all time record year preceeding it. I brought this up before this season started (but honestly I believed them about the warm SST's - which turned out to be bogus).

Right now when EPAC has strong cyclones nearby Atlantic is weak.

[WxGuy1]

Good points that the hurricane seasons have been El Nino-ish in many ways. But I though the water led the air in El Nino and the water just started shifting to El Nino. How could we already be having strong El Nino atmospheric conditions?

That's because your going by what you have heard before and the community as a whole hasn't a clue how to predict the EL Nino. And it's the propaganda on this board that supports this nonsense.

I realize very well that posts like this irk some people but it also works the other way around. We need to quit patting people on the back when they fail. Even if the public thinks that these people "should " know better.

Results are what matter and Ernesto's tracking error should also be a wake up call here.

Jim, I looked back through your recent posts, and didn't find any Ernesto forecast. I saw one 'after-the-fact' post about how you anticipated it was going to go east, but what about a forecast? Many of your posts that I've read regarding storms have been more 'after-the-fact' ("I could have told you this would turn unexpectedly because of this and that"). I'd like to see your 2-3+ day track forecasts, particularly when they are against the prevailing forecast... It'd help you establish credibility, and it would help us determine whether there's credibility to be established.

[Jim Hughes]

Good points that the hurricane seasons have been El Nino-ish in many ways. But I though the water led the air in El Nino and the water just started shifting to El Nino. How could we already be having strong El Nino atmospheric conditions?

That's because your going by what you have heard before and the community as a whole hasn't a clue how to predict the EL Nino. And it's the propaganda on this board that supports this nonsense.

I realize very well that posts like this irk some people but it also works the other way around. We need to quit patting people on the back when they fail. Even if the public thinks that these people "should " know better.

Results are what matter and Ernesto's tracking error should also be a wake up call here.

Jim, I looked back through your recent posts, and didn't find any Ernesto forecast. I saw one 'after-the-fact' post about how you anticipated it was going to go east, but what about a forecast? Many of your posts that I've read regarding storms have been more 'after-the-fact' ("I could have told you this would turn unexpectedly because of this and that"). I'd like to see your 2-3+ day track forecasts, particularly when they are against the prevailing forecast... It'd help you establish credibility, and it would help us determine whether there's credibility to be established.

First let me say that I see CapeVerdeWave has learned from some of my past comments/discussions from last year in relation to the IMF and solar winds. This is nice to know.

WxGuy1 this is not something that I can quickly get across and my time is limited. But I will point you in the right direction ..Even about Ernesto at the bottom of this reply.

If you do a search for either me or space weather , from last years posts, in this forum , Tropical Analysis and the Global Weather (Some threads were moved to global ... after the fact) . you will find specific details about my methodology and theories.

As for credibility. Just look at last years forecasts. Two biggies from last year...Rita would NOT go to Houston/Texas and would go to Louisiana. This went against everybody when she was well out in the GOM.

Katrina...east of N.O and she would weaken. It took me nine months to find out how much she did weaken.

Last September...Based on space weather ....La Nina should form in the future....February 06 NOAA says we have a La Nina finally ....I then say that it is probably over....Looks like the opposite is starting to occur in the Pacifc (Because of the stratosphere)

Now Storm2k's policy forbiddens me from starting threads in the Talkin Tropics Forum in regards to the space weather effect upon tropical systems. So this is why I no longer start discussions or make forecast comments around "here".

I also just finished writing up a research discussion recently based on a theory called the PET Cycle. This has taken up allot of my time lately.

So I have to carefully pick and chose my comments around this place. Everyone should know that 90% of my recent comments around here have been about the developing El Nino and how this would effect the 2006 season.

Well most people are not willing to admit that I am right (And some other people also mind you) but they sure have lowered their outlook totals recently. So what does this tell you?

Okay Ernesto....Once again Storm2k policy forbids links to other forums. This is not my fault.

So you will have to look for this at another forum. easternuswx.com

The thread is currently on page 5...soon to be page 6. ( Please read thr whoe thread please. )

I will give you specifics and I would be shocked if you can not find it within a couple of minutes.


This dealt with my reply to a gentleman by the name of Harry, who was the poster of this discussion, in regards to the thread titled " Ernesto's Track Something worth mentioning Why it may not make landfall in Florida."

My first reply was posted at 9:51am Sunday morning. I think you could also give me another 30 minutes considering the write up.

Ernesto's track was still no where as far east as it is now. The cone still had it making landfall along the western coast of Florida and going across it.

You will see where I explain the reasoning behind my thoughts (Same as last year and some MET's use to argue about this even though it came true) and also as to why it shifted North and east over the weekend.

As for my El Nino comments last winter. They are over there also. I can dig up that thread also.

[CrazyC83]

2002 would be a much better analogy, I don't think the ATL season will end up as inactive as 1997.

I agree, with some shades of 1996 as well (a followup to an explosively active year, although 2005 beat everything). I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an insane 2007 in the Pacific if an El Nino indeed forms.

[Sanibel]

Once Ernesto got away from the Caribbean where it is closest to EPAC it got stronger with good full-blown solid convection around perfect symmetry.

Atlantic isn't perfect, but Ernesto didn't bloom until it got up into a pocket free from this influence.

[Jim Cantore]

Ernesto was weak in Florida because

1. He got ripped up by cuba and needed time to recover.
2. Conditons weren't great.

[Sanibel]

What I'm trying to convey is a general negative atmospheric that breeds category 4 hurricanes in nearby EPAC inhibits them in the Atlantic. This has been said many times before that when EPAC is favorable Atlantic can be unfavorable (but not always).

You can see Ernesto had excellent form and fully deep and symmetrical convection only when he got away from this prevailing atmospheric.

[jdray]

As an amatuer astronomer, I can sorta follow what you say Jim.

Its defintely a theory to look at in more detail.


REMEMBER people, a good scientist tries to come up with a theory, and then tries to disprove it later on.
Most scientists (pro or amatuer) have a tendency to attack something that goes against their own methods and teachings.

As far as your reply to that other forum, you were right.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... L0506W.GIF was the forecast track and you called it more on the NE side of the cone. A lot of people were still thinking mid gulf at that point.

Hats off to you.

[Frank2]

I sometimes think a good indication of an El Nino is activity in the Central Pacific, since it usually lacks any tropical cyclone development, and, a year with activity (such as this week's Super Typhoon Ioke) is perhaps a good indicator that we are in an El Nino pattern.

In fact, some might recall the Central Pacific's Hurricane Iniki (1992) - that took place during an El Nino period...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iniki

[Jim Cantore]

I sometimes think a good indication of an El Nino is activity in the Central Pacific, since it usually lacks any tropical cyclone development, and, a year with activity (such as this week's Super Typhoon Ioke) is perhaps a good indicator that we are in an El Nino pattern.

In fact, some might recall the Central Pacific's Hurricane Iniki (1992) - that took place during an El Nino period...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iniki

When Iniki formed, the El Nino had dissapated.