NEW: Dr. Gray September Update: 2006 below decadal average

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Hyperstorm
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NEW: Dr. Gray September Update: 2006 below decadal average

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:59 am

The Weather Channel has reported that Colorado State University (Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach) has lowered their 2006 seasonal forecast from their August update.

September update:

13 tropical storms
5 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

If you recall, their August update was 15/7/3. Their original forecast was 17/9/5.

Be the judge...
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#2 Postby DelrayMorris » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:26 am

GOOD!! Now lets see if we can keep going in that direction!
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:41 am

ABSTRACT



Information obtained through 31 August 2006 shows that we have so far experienced only 18 percent of the average full season Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity. We significantly over-estimated August activity. In an average year, 33 percent of the seasonal average NTC of 100 occurs before the end of August.

Our September-only forecast calls for 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 59 which is slightly above the September-only average value of 48. Our October-only forecast calls for 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, 0 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 12 which is below the October-only average value of 18.

We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Niño-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific.



Above is the abstract of the outlook.

Link to the complete September Only Outlook.
:rarrow: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/sep2006/
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#4 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:56 am

This is like changing your bet at halftime of a football game . Dr Gray "predictions " border on simple observations.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:04 am

AtlanticWind wrote:This is like changing your bet at halftime of a football game . Dr Gray "predictions " border on simple observations.


So, do you have the same objection to the NHC issuing updated forecast tracks every six hours?

At what point does the obligation to ignore new information set in?
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#6 Postby kenl01 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:10 am

I'm not surprised whatsoever given the environmental conditions this year at all. In fact, my prediction back in May (thanks to a special analysis from Chuck) indicated approximately 13 named storms this year, 7 hurricanes and 3 major.

I even doubt the new numbers will materialize, although it's much closer to reality.
I have lowered my personal predictions to 11/4/2 a month ago based on the indexes such as AMO, El-Nino like conditions, presence of ULL's, shear, SAL, cooler overall SST's, and the fact that by end of July conditions were still unfavorable.
All those make conditions far less favorable than any of the last two years.
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#7 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:13 am

[/quote]
We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Niño-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific. [/quote]

Will these El Nino conditions be around next hurricane season?
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#8 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:22 am

meh...good to hear there will probably be less...but I'd say this season is statistically about average.
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#9 Postby stormtruth » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:23 am

Dr. Gray cautiously steps out into the sunlight. He sees his shadow! Six more weeks of hurricane season predicted.
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#10 Postby DanKellFla » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:43 am

For the last 10 years or so that I have been following Dr. Gray, he has been pretty good. I have a lot of respect for him. But this year seems to be puzzling everybody. Anyways, I am happy to hear the news. But, there could still be a storm out there for me. I am still shocked by Wilma in October. I never would have thought Halloween could have been screwed up because of a Hurricane.
Last edited by DanKellFla on Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:45 am

I only say it's average because of 1998, 1999 etc.

recall taht in 1998 Georges didn't pop up till mid September, and floyd was also a mid September storm as well.

We're right on schedule. September has only begun, and I think it'll surprise us.
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#12 Postby dwg71 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:55 am

WE may be on schedule or a little ahead of schedule regarding storm names, but regarding Hurricanes and hurricane intensity, we are well below normal. 6 hours of a minimal cat 1 through the first 3 months of the season is a whimper compared to what we are used to. And as far as named storms averages, you can through out anything before sats and recon.
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#13 Postby Javlin » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:00 am

x-y-no wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:This is like changing your bet at halftime of a football game . Dr Gray "predictions " border on simple observations.


So, do you have the same objection to the NHC issuing updated forecast tracks every six hours?

At what point does the obligation to ignore new information set in?


That is so true X-Y-O :D :D
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#14 Postby Swimdude » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:05 am

Hmmm strange. After everyone yelling, or rather, SCREAMING, lecturing, moaning and groaning - that this season would be above average... Could we possible be heading closer to average? NO WAY!
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#15 Postby Javlin » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:06 am

dwg71 wrote:WE may be on schedule or a little ahead of schedule regarding storm names, but regarding Hurricanes and hurricane intensity, we are well below normal. 6 hours of a minimal cat 1 through the first 3 months of the season is a whimper compared to what we are used to. And as far as named storms averages, you can through out anything before sats and recon.


I brought this up in another thread DWG that the ACE for the ATL. is way down while the ACE for the PAC. is doing quite well.Some how I think along with all the TUTTs and ULLs and maybe a little Nino started coming into play a month or so ago has given us a minor reprieve hopefully.
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Re: NEW: Dr. Gray September Update: 2006 below decadal avera

#16 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:12 am

Hyperstorm wrote:The Weather Channel has reported that Colorado State University (Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach) has lowered their 2006 seasonal forecast from their August update.

September update:

13 tropical storms
5 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

If you recall, their August update was 15/7/3. Their original forecast was 17/9/5.

Be the judge...



Still, 13 named storms is still above the average for the year. I believe (correct me if I am wrong), the avg for named storms in a year is 10.


Robert 8-)
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Re: NEW: Dr. Gray September Update: 2006 below decadal avera

#17 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:20 am

TampaFl wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:The Weather Channel has reported that Colorado State University (Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach) has lowered their 2006 seasonal forecast from their August update.

September update:

13 tropical storms
5 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

If you recall, their August update was 15/7/3. Their original forecast was 17/9/5.

Be the judge...



Still, 13 named storms is still above the average for the year. I believe (correct me if I am wrong), the avg for named storms in a year is 10.


Robert 8-)



The article I read said it would be "below" average based on his revision.
Oh well so much for Global Warming. :lol:
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#18 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:23 am

Whether the crystal ball says 5 or 50 hurricanes is inmaterial...all it takes is one..in 1992,for example..Let's not get our guard down just yet..No one knows for sure what'a ahead...JMO
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#19 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:24 am

x-y-no wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:This is like changing your bet at halftime of a football game . Dr Gray "predictions " border on simple observations.


So, do you have the same objection to the NHC issuing updated forecast tracks every six hours?

At what point does the obligation to ignore new information set in?




The Hurricane Center tells you their average error 5 days out is several hundred miles , perhaps Dr. Gray should put out a disclaimer also.

I do respect the research Dr Gray has done and he has shown some skill in predicting conditions for a given hurricane season, but to amend a prediction after 35 percent of the season is over seems to serve no point.

Now watch us have a hyperactive september and october ! ( I hope not)
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#20 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:19 pm

Well, looks like Dr Gray is on to something regarding all of the dry air and the dust that he mentioned....I woke up this morning expected to see an increase of the convection in the two Atlantic waves we've been watching, only to wake up and realize it was just a fluke AGAIN. The convection once again looks like crap....

I think if this keeps up, it will even be quite a bit lower than what he mentioned.
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