Okay it's September now what?

[Stormcenter]

Well folks we are starting the month of September and to my on personal shock we only have 5 named storms so far for 2006. I'm starting to have serious doubts this season will go past 15 named storms, if that. We are now in the peak month and I think we will see one or two whoppers in the month but not more. The key is will they affect any densely populated areas. Anyway lets hope we beat the odds and have a quiet September.

[Acral]

Well, we do show some good waves from Africa, we do see the potential for "explosive" development in the GoM and parts of the Atlantic. Having said that, we have dry air, shear, and all of that boils down to what looks like a normal season.

[wxwatcher91]

I'm not as surprised about only having 5 named storms. I'm more shocked that so far 2006 has had 6 hours of a 75mph category 1 hurricane and nothing more.

[Josephine96]

I could be wrong.. But aren't we actually above normal with 5 named storms..

[vbhoutex]

I could be wrong.. But aren't we actually above normal with 5 named storms..

Based on average normal seasons we are indeed above normal. Everyone needs to remember that 2005 was an anomaly we will probably never see again in our lifetimes(thank goodness).

[Ixolib]

Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
wake me up when September ends...

[Josephine96]

It's only September 1st.. we'll see some storms this month..

[HURRICANELONNY]

We will see storms this month but I think we will fall below expectation. In my view were in a weak El Nino and the Assui's pretty much changed there prediction.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... anim.shtml

[Frank2]

Still, as of 9/1/05, we were at the 13th named storm (Maria), and, were at 13/4/3 (if I'm not mistaken), compared with 5/1/0 (with the one hurricane barely that, and, perhaps the NHC will downgrade Ernesto after the data is analyzed more carefully), so, that's a big adjustment, thankfully, from last season.

I don't think anyone here or on the Gulf Coast is complaining...

Frank

[Thunder44]

Still, as of 9/1/05, we were at the 13th named storm (Maria), and, were at 13/4/3 (if I'm not mistaken), compared with 5/1/0 (with the one hurricane barely that, and, perhaps the NHC will downgrade Ernesto after the data is analyzed more carefully), so, that's a big adjustment, thankfully, from last season.

I don't think anyone here or on the Gulf Coast is complaining...

Frank

Why would NHC downgrade Ernesto from being a hurricane in Carribean? The pressure was little higher, but they found higher winds at flight level and surface winds with the drosponde as I remember it. There is more data to support hurricane strength in the Carribean than when it was off NC coast.

[Frank2]

Perhaps you're right, but, it in the end it might be a judgement call on the part of the NHC - I'll guess that at least they'll take another look at the data.

At the least, it'll go down as a "short-lived hurricane", so, the total is more like 5/1*/0...

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

Still, as of 9/1/05, we were at the 13th named storm (Maria), and, were at 13/4/3 (if I'm not mistaken), compared with 5/1/0 (with the one hurricane barely that, and, perhaps the NHC will downgrade Ernesto after the data is analyzed more carefully), so, that's a big adjustment, thankfully, from last season.

I don't think anyone here or on the Gulf Coast is complaining...

Frank

Why would NHC downgrade Ernesto from being a hurricane in Carribean? The pressure was little higher, but they found higher winds at flight level and surface winds with the drosponde as I remember it. There is more data to support hurricane strength in the Carribean than when it was off NC coast.

Cause he's Frank2...When the season is over there will be more than 1 Cane..5-6 is still on the agenda..

[SouthFloridawx]

Two words,

"Above Average"

[Hurricanehink]

This isn't unusual. It reminds me of 2001, a bit, which only had four storms and no hurricanes before September 1. However, like 2001, this year might have a big ending.

[kenl01]

I think it should be downgraded also - seems if this was a hurricane, it was a very weak short lived cat 1, if at all.............

[SouthFloridawx]

We are currently above average and I'm not sure why people are saying the season is slow.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85362

[Swimdude]

:lol: It's only September 1st.. we'll see some storms this month..

As I've been saying all season, these comments are going to start getting pretty amusing pretty fast... "Come on guys, it's ONLY Novem... Oh. Wait."

[Swimdude]

This isn't unusual. It reminds me of 2001, a bit, which only had four storms and no hurricanes before September 1. However, like 2001, this year might have a big ending.

Not like Allison wasn't big enough...

[Opal storm]

I've been tracking hurricanes long enough to know that 5 named storms by Sept 1st is average.Actually,if this was before 2004 and 2005 I would've considered this season above average so far.If you compare this season to last,then yes this is a very boring season.But most of us know that what happened in 2005 was like a once in a lifetime event.

[FrontRunner]

I don't understand people saying that it should be downgraded simply because it only barely made hurricane strength. That doesn't make any logical sense. This isn't really a subjective "judgement call" as to whether it was a hurricane. They upgraded based on data saying that, for a fact, it was a hurricane. There's really only a minute chance of a post-season downgrade, such as if they found the aircraft data to be faulty in some way, if there was an instrument malfunction measuring windspeed, or if they have proof that at that moment in the Caribbean, whatever flight level wind reduction factor they were using was incorrect. Those are the only possibly argument I could accept for a downgrade, and no one here is saying that. Post-season upgrades are more common because it's impossible for the recon to sample every square mile of the storm, so stronger winds can always exist somewhere that aren't discovered or reported until after the fact.

Bottom line: there's nothing that says that a storm can't just briefly reach winds of 65 knots for 6 hours and then dip back down. Such a storm was a hurricane, regardless of how long it was one.