Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
OFF AFRICA. A 1011 MB LOW HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE WAVE NEAR 11N.
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY BROAD AND ELONGATED BUT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS
AND A FEW SFC OBS HELP LOCATE IT. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WITH
AN INVERTED V-PATTERN OBSERVED ON INFRARED IMAGES. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS STILL DISORGANIZED BUT IS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 33W-38W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO this is the one to watch.

[tgenius]

IMO this is the one to watch.

That one looks 3-4 times the size of the other one!

[ConvergenceZone]

That looks like a Carib system for sure, should it gets its act together...I wonder what's causing the convection to explode today? I'm not giving any forecasts whether I think it's going to develop or not though. My ego has taken a bashing too much already this season.

[SouthFloridawx]

The Ridge is going to build Eastward and keep the ridge on top of this wave.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[tgenius]

If this would be a player for CONUS, how long are we talkin.. a week?

[jhamps10]

The Ridge is going to build Eastward and keep the ridge on top of this wave.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

meaning what now? is that good for development or not?

[SouthFloridawx]

If this would be a player for CONUS, how long are we talkin.. a week?

More than a week as it would be towards the Islands in 4 days.

[Patrick99]

Don't look now but there's that little swirl to the NW of the bigger wave, firing some evening convection over the center. Only to fizzle again come morning, most likely.

I can't take this little spin anymore....it is doomed to disappoint me.

[gtsmith]

just curious but what else needs to happen for one of these to become an invest?

[Sanibel]

The African wave train looks like it has a few showing hints of curved shape.

[ConvergenceZone]

Don't look now but there's that little swirl to the NW of the bigger wave, firing some evening convection over the center. Only to fizzle again come morning, most likely.

I can't take this little spin anymore....it is doomed to disappoint me.

I know, there's something annoying about that little swirl NW of the wave we are watching. I don't know why, but it annoys me for some reason, lol..I think it's because it's so easy to spot, yet it doesn't do anything.

[jhamps10]

man that don't annoy me, I love being able to track not 1 but 2 waves at the same time. who knows maybe we will have Florence and Gordon being tracked at the same time, and in a close area to each other. that would be cool.

[SouthFloridawx]

The Ridge is going to build Eastward and keep the ridge on top of this wave.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

meaning what now? is that good for development or not?

Wow that was a crappy sentence I wrote. What I meant was, The ridge is going to keep this wave moving westward. As the trough along the east coast pulls out we'll see the ridge build back west and keep the wave under it.

[jhamps10]

[/quote]
Wow that was a crappy sentence I wrote. What I meant was, The ridge is going to keep this wave moving westward. As the trough along the east coast pulls out we'll see the ridge build back west and keep the wave under it.[/quote]

OK, now I get ya. Yeah i would have to agree that this would keep moving west, and ANY chance of this being a fish has gone out of the window IMO.

p.s. both waves seem to be getting their act together this evening, could we have a new invest tomrrow?
Opinions please.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB forecast calls for a general wnw track to the Caribbean in the next 72 hours...

[SouthFloridawx]

It's also forecasting development of a more organized low behind it.

[gatorcane]

something tells me things will get cranking in the next week:

I just saw the latest TWO: slow development is possible

[gatorcane]

the wave continues to look better and better. at this rate we will have an invest in the next 24 hours, and maybe florence by sunday or monday.

Florence is also the CV storm of the year that I thought would be a long-tracker.....

It just has a "cape verde" ring to it for some reason....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 31, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave located about 700 miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands has changed little in organization this evening.
Slow development is possible over the next day or two as the system
moves westward about 10 mph.