Effects of a major hurricane into Miami?

[zlaxier]

If I remember correctly, a good chunk of key biscayne was covered in at least a couple feet of water during Andrew. I don't remember if it submerged the entire island.

[LeeJet]

It seems that these Wilma-esque storms happen quite often for South Florida, looking back at old tracks. On average, about two times a decade, if not more.

[Patrick99]

the 1926 hurricane was a surge hurricane, like what Katrina was, so I have to wonder what the statement that it wasn't very vulnerable to surge comes from...

It was a 15 foot surge from a category 4 storm...

I wouldn't feel safe on Key Biscayne in a repeat of 1926. As I understand it, storm surge did great damage during that one, along with the wind. Only place I'd feel safe is my first floor condo on the relative high ground of the coastal ridge.

At any rate, we will witness it again eventually, whether it comes from the east or the south. I doubt I'll ever see anything quite as intense as Andrew, though.

One storm I haven't yet seen in my lifetime is the big, lumbering rain-producing hurricane. Irene dumped some big rains, but it was out of there pretty quickly. Same with Katrina. I suppose the closest we've come to that in a while was Frances...but it sat offshore.

[JPmia]

the 1926 hurricane was a surge hurricane, like what Katrina was, so I have to wonder what the statement that it wasn't very vulnerable to surge comes from...

It was a 15 foot surge from a category 4 storm...

I wouldn't feel safe on Key Biscayne in a repeat of 1926. As I understand it, storm surge did great damage during that one, along with the wind. Only place I'd feel safe is my first floor condo on the relative high ground of the coastal ridge.

At any rate, we will witness it again eventually, whether it comes from the east or the south. I doubt I'll ever see anything quite as intense as Andrew, though.

One storm I haven't yet seen in my lifetime is the big, lumbering rain-producing hurricane. Irene dumped some big rains, but it was out of there pretty quickly. Same with Katrina. I suppose the closest we've come to that in a while was Frances...but it sat offshore.

The storm we haven't seen yet is the garden variety Cat 4 that tends to stroll in every so often (i.e., the 1940s) and pummel South FL. I can't imagine what South FL would look like after one of those hitting us. The consequences would rival New Orleans without a doubt.

[artist]

Hopefully not in my life time!

[NFLDART]

Remember Andrew was a very small and tightly compacted storm. Had he the size of Katrina or Floyd which was a cat 5 just off the coast the results would be unimaginable. Andrew arrived in the least densley populated area of dade county and spared broward pretty much all togethor

[NFLDART]

Just a little north of where he came ashore and the effects would have been much worse.

[Derek Ortt]

the least densely populated area of dade is where Betsy came shore. Thats the 18 mile stretch and Card Sound round, where only the small "village" of Card Sound is located

Andrew affected about 300,000 people, fairly densely populated and the population has grown significant since then, unfortunately

[jpigott]

Had Andrew come ashore a little futher north and his northern eyewall gone thru downtown, I'd imagine you would have seen some gutted skyscrapers and perhaps even a couple that had been knocked down all together

[NFLDART]

what IMO would be the worst case scenario would be a cat 4-5 entering between Miami- Lauderdale tracking NW across Lake Okeechobee into Orlando Metro and Out at Tampa.

[NFLDART]

the least densely populated area of dade is where Betsy came shore. Thats the 18 mile stretch and Card Sound round, where only the small "village" of Card Sound is located

Andrew affected about 300,000 people, fairly densely populated and the population has grown significant since then, unfortunately

True D.O. but the population above say Kendall Blvd. rises exponentially. Thats the point i was making. What is the Pop of FLorida City Homestead roughly now. I was in no way downplaying Andrews effects. I was simply stating that it could have been worse...

[LeeJet]

I wonder if all of Coral Gable's beautiful fauna would be detroyed? That would be terrible in such a green area (one of the few in Miami).

[hial2]

I am not sure, but I would be surprised if it was completely under water

Yes, boats went over Key Biscayne, according to historical record.

Ive seen historical pictures with ships,not boats,all over Biscayne Boulevard during the aftermath of that cane...

[StrongWind]

I would really hate to see a large size cat 4 Frances type storm that stalls closer to land.

We got lucky w/ that one because it's slow movement prior to Fl. landfall allowed it to get sheared down to a 2. W/o that shear it would have been

[Derek Ortt]

There's not much of a change in population these days south of Kendall Drive. Useless 1 is just as slow there as it is at the US 1, Rickenbacker Causeway, and I-95 intersect. Only difference is the high rises are not there

[JPmia]

the least densely populated area of dade is where Betsy came shore. Thats the 18 mile stretch and Card Sound round, where only the small "village" of Card Sound is located

Andrew affected about 300,000 people, fairly densely populated and the population has grown significant since then, unfortunately

True D.O. but the population above say Kendall Blvd. rises exponentially. Thats the point i was making. What is the Pop of FLorida City Homestead roughly now. I was in no way downplaying Andrews effects. I was simply stating that it could have been worse...

That area of the County is growing enormously within the last year and should continue well into the future considering that is an area where homes are still considered *affordable*. They are building entirely new communities down there in Homestead and Florida City. Take a drive down the Turnpike toward FL Keys and you will see what I am talking about.

[Jim Cantore]

I disagree with the NW moving system being the worst case

A NNE moving system, moving up the Florida Keys, then into the metro areas is probably the worst.

For one, the Keys residents usually wont evacuate. Wilma showed that they wont evacuate for a major hurricane. There could be large loss of life if that performance is repeated. Then, it would hammer all 3 of the metro areas, possibly harder than Wilma did if it were more intense than Wilma

That almost happened with Wilma, if it would of went further south it would have put Key West underwater.

[gatorcane]

South Florida/Miami gets hit more from the South than the east. The Wilma track is quite common.