Hurricane Warnings/Watches Earlier for NC/SC???

[artist]

I hear all over the news at the beginning of the season to get prepared now before a storm comes our way, there fore when a watch is issued - I am in stand by mode, but fully prepared other than a final check on all my supplies, and then wait to see if the warning is issued and if so leave or put up shutters.

The schools here don't make the decision to close schools the day after a storm hits until it has indeed doness so. I know that if it hits and it made a severe impact, schools will be closed. That is the reason for them waiting, I believe.

[windnrain]

Honestly, it's more the school system that I am angry at than the NHC, I have made this clear so many times... and now, with it moving slightly more to the east, I see this thing becomming a mid to powerful category one, if it doesnt landfall til the AM

[artist]

windnrain - if you are concerned, then just make plans to do what YOU think is best. Don't rely on someone else to make decisions for you and your family.

[windnrain]

Artist, I'm not concerned about myself, I live here in Louisiana, man. But it is facetious to think that the general public is as educated on these matters as we are, and with the mixed signals comming from the nhc, and more importantly, the school board, there are people who are too poor to leave from work, and their schools being open seem to hint that they shouldn't have to! These people should be at home preparing for a storm that DOES have the capability to cause loss of life and damage, not worrying about picking up their kids from school and dropping them off! There are people out there, that, believe it or not, know jack squat about hurricanes, and will not evacuate unless schools are closed and the government tells them to. Sadly, they seem to be the majority.

[southerngale]

For those complaining about the schools, why not just go pick your kids up? They are YOUR kids, not the government's, and you have every right to pick them up. If I had kids in public school, I wouldn't rely on anyone else to tell me when they should be out of school. I'd just go get them.

UpTheCreek...weather is not an exact science and to expect anyone to get it exactly right just isn't gonna happen. NHC has always alerted to the possiblity that it could be stronger, and has ALWAYS said that intensity is very hard to forecast. Prepare for the worst and expect the best. Most of all, use common sense and don't rely on someone else to tell you what to do.

[artist]

YOu don't listen to the schools - no matter what! You listen to the NHC, period. They have said a hurricane could arrive with issuing a watch!
3 years ago, our local officials did not take things seriously, even though the NHC had issued warnings - if I had listened to the officials, then we would never have been prepared. I, at the time, didn't have anything either, but I knew what I was hearing from the NHC and prepared as best I could BEFORE the county officials told me to. Money has nothing to do with it. If they don't have the sense to listen to the NHC, then what tells you they will listen to the schools??? I didn't expect them to tell me what the weather was going to do - they are not mets!

[UpTheCreek]

UpTheCreek...weather is not an exact science and to expect anyone to get it exactly right just isn't gonna happen. NHC has always alerted to the possiblity that it could be stronger, and has ALWAYS said that intensity is very hard to forecast. Prepare for the worst and expect the best. Most of all, use common sense and don't rely on someone else to tell you what to do.

I was trying to be nice, but the fact of the matter is that the NHC made some very poor decisions with concrete data that they had already. Not only that, it was compounded by the fact that they made a typo in their initial advisory at 2 pm. That is just plain SLOPPY work and a mistake that should NOT happen with something so important. A simple proof read is hardly rocket science. They have a tough job, but not much excuse for such sloppiness. Go ahead and defend them all you want, not going to sway my opinion much. I mean that respectfully, not trying to slam you.

[StormsAhead]

issuing a watch 12 hours in advance provides no public service or purpose.

Exactly.

The forecasters at the NHC are only human; everyone has their biases towards their own forecast. It's rather obvious (at least to me) that they would have had a warning right now if Avila had not cancelled the watches earlier. The amount that they would gain by the phrase "a hurricane watch was issued...and then a hurricane warning was issued..." in their post-season analysis seems to outweigh the fact that people may not be as prepared for a hurricane.

The bottom line is that many people are not going to be able to prepare for a hurricane in 12 hours. If Ernesto had never been downgraded to a depression, maybe people (i.e., the general public) would have kept watching it. For most on this board, a hurricane warning is not necessary to know that a hurricane is coming. But the general public will have no idea.

Regarding the so-called "bashing": The NHC, like every other agency, sometimes deserves to have its motives questioned. It's only fair that the agency that the public relies on the most can be criticized. The NHC is not perfect, and as stated before it does not control the weather. Therefore it should be perfectly normal for people to doubt their decisions. IMO, this knee-jerk reaction some people have to keep quiet about the problems of the NHC can only hurt our knowledge of the actual weather.

[artist]

you are supposed to be prepared at the beginning of the season - not when storm is bearing down on you!

[StormsAhead]

you are supposed to be prepared at the beginning of the season - not when storm is bearing down on you!

OK, then let's not issue warnings at all. But if you wait for a warning to act, as the NHC/NWS tells people, you're in trouble in a scenario like this.

[southerngale]

UpTheCreek...weather is not an exact science and to expect anyone to get it exactly right just isn't gonna happen. NHC has always alerted to the possiblity that it could be stronger, and has ALWAYS said that intensity is very hard to forecast. Prepare for the worst and expect the best. Most of all, use common sense and don't rely on someone else to tell you what to do.

I was trying to be nice, but the fact of the matter is that the NHC made some very poor decisions with concrete data that they had already. Not only that, it was compounded by the fact that they made a typo in their initial advisory at 2 pm. That is just plain SLOPPY work and a mistake that should NOT happen with something so important. A simple proof read is hardly rocket science. They have a tough job, but not much excuse for such sloppiness. Go ahead and defend them all you want, not going to sway my opinion much. I mean that respectfully, not trying to slam you.

Wow. And here I was thinking how some people were making much ado about nothing. They clearly stated in the advisory that it was nearing hurricane strength AND that the winds had increased to 70mph. It was quite obvious to me that the typo at the bottom where they said "repeating..." was an error. Big deal.

[fci]

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS

Doesn't that let people know they *could* receive hurricane conditions? Just expect them and if you don't get them, great!

True, but what do we think, beyond the textbook definition; that a Hurricane Watch's purpose is?
I think it is to let the public know that conditions COULD arrive within 36 hours and to start to prepare in case the watch is upgraded to a warning closer in to landfall if conditions appear to be imminent.

I know that when we get a Hurricane Watch it is publicly explained to us just that way.

Watch- get prepared to take action
Warning- take action

So, if my definitions are acceptable; then issuing a watch 12 hours in advance provides no public service or purpose. I would think/hope that it was not issued so that a post-mortem would reveal the thought that "well at least we told them it could happen within 12 hours; job well done"

They didn't "just" issue it.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

They clearly say that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 12 hours. It's not a hurricane yet, and may not be, so they don't want to say hurricane conditions are imminent. YET it *could* become a hurricane, so they say that hurricane conditions are possible.

It lets people know that they could experience hurricane conditions, so just expect them. If you don't get them, great. If you do, you WERE warned that you might.

I guess I just don't see the big gripe. Take personal responsibility and prepare when you see a storm might be coming...tropical storm or hurricane.
If I had waited on a hurricane warning to prepare for Rita, I would have been up poop creek without a paddle. I took responsibilty for myself and my family when I saw the POTENTIAL.

Yes, they did JUST issue the Hurricane Watch at 11 AM!!!!

You and I do not agree that all of the responsibility lies with the person.
They look to the NHC for guidance and I think it is apparent they were clearly late in issuing Hurricane Watches/Warnings
Especially in light of how they handled a similar situation 48 hours earlier.
And quite frankly, it was not even similar 48 hours ago, it was even weaker and yet they issued the watches WAY earlier.

You did have an early enough Hurricane Watch for Rita.
These folks had one, lost one and then had one about 12 hours in advance.
Meanwhile, they were at work and their kids at school.
And please do not be critical of parents sending their kids to school.
They did so when there was no Hurricane Watch present.
Just my point.....

So we do not agree, I believe that there IS a valid gripe.
And hopefully, a lesson learned and no one caught off guard while picking up a child or driving home from work.

[southerngale]

Regarding the so-called "bashing": The NHC, like every other agency, sometimes deserves to have its motives questioned. It's only fair that the agency that the public relies on the most can be criticized. The NHC is not perfect, and as stated before it does not control the weather. Therefore it should be perfectly normal for people to doubt their decisions. IMO, this knee-jerk reaction some people have to keep quiet about the problems of the NHC can only hurt our knowledge of the actual weather.

Care to explain further what you're implying here?

[stormtruth]

They probably just need more staff at the NHC. That is probably why they keep making so many errors and not issuing the appropriate warnings. You would think they would been given a massive budget increase after 2005 but I guess they weren't.

[artist]

you are supposed to be prepared at the beginning of the season - not when storm is bearing down on you!

OK, then let's not issue warnings at all. But if you wait for a warning to act, as the NHC/NWS tells people, you're in trouble in a scenario like this.

StormsAhead - what a silly statement! That is to let us know it is indeed time to make FINAL preparations! NOT to start from scratch!

[StormsAhead]

Regarding the so-called "bashing": The NHC, like every other agency, sometimes deserves to have its motives questioned. It's only fair that the agency that the public relies on the most can be criticized. The NHC is not perfect, and as stated before it does not control the weather. Therefore it should be perfectly normal for people to doubt their decisions. IMO, this knee-jerk reaction some people have to keep quiet about the problems of the NHC can only hurt our knowledge of the actual weather.

Care to explain further what you're implying here?

That they are issuing watches before warnings so that it looks good, as opposed to doing it to warn the public. Similarly, people accuse Accuweather of "hype" so they get more money from subscibers.

[fci]

issuing a watch 12 hours in advance provides no public service or purpose.

Exactly.

The forecasters at the NHC are only human; everyone has their biases towards their own forecast. It's rather obvious (at least to me) that they would have had a warning right now if Avila had not cancelled the watches earlier. The amount that they would gain by the phrase "a hurricane watch was issued...and then a hurricane warning was issued..." in their post-season analysis seems to outweigh the fact that people may not be as prepared for a hurricane.

The bottom line is that many people are not going to be able to prepare for a hurricane in 12 hours. If Ernesto had never been downgraded to a depression, maybe people (i.e., the general public) would have kept watching it. For most on this board, a hurricane warning is not necessary to know that a hurricane is coming. But the general public will have no idea.

Regarding the so-called "bashing": The NHC, like every other agency, sometimes deserves to have its motives questioned. It's only fair that the agency that the public relies on the most can be criticized. The NHC is not perfect, and as stated before it does not control the weather. Therefore it should be perfectly normal for people to doubt their decisions. IMO, this knee-jerk reaction some people have to keep quiet about the problems of the NHC can only hurt our knowledge of the actual weather.

You have said it very well.
- 12 hours is not enough to prepare
- NHC is accountable to the public and therefore questioning their handling is not simply "bashing".

Thank you for summing it up correctly.

[artist]

stormtruth - there budget was greatly increased after last season! Where is this type of stuff coming from, anyway???
Always wanting to blame anyone but ourselves! Jeeeeesh!

[fci]

Regarding the so-called "bashing": The NHC, like every other agency, sometimes deserves to have its motives questioned. It's only fair that the agency that the public relies on the most can be criticized. The NHC is not perfect, and as stated before it does not control the weather. Therefore it should be perfectly normal for people to doubt their decisions. IMO, this knee-jerk reaction some people have to keep quiet about the problems of the NHC can only hurt our knowledge of the actual weather.

Care to explain further what you're implying here?

Have not agreed much with you on this issue Southerngale; but I do here.
I have never questioned the motives of the NHC.
Just how they handled the situation.

[southerngale]

Yes, they did JUST issue the Hurricane Watch at 11 AM!!!!

You and I do not agree that all of the responsibility lies with the person.
They look to the NHC for guidance and I think it is apparent they were clearly late in issuing Hurricane Watches/Warnings
Especially in light of how they handled a similar situation 48 hours earlier.
And quite frankly, it was not even similar 48 hours ago, it was even weaker and yet they issued the watches WAY earlier.

You did have an early enough Hurricane Watch for Rita.
These folks had one, lost one and then had one about 12 hours in advance.
Meanwhile, they were at work and their kids at school.
And please do not be critical of parents sending their kids to school.
They did so when there was no Hurricane Watch present.
Just my point.....

So we do not agree, I believe that there IS a valid gripe.
And hopefully, a lesson learned and no one caught off guard while picking up a child or driving home from work.

I put REMAINS IN EFFECT in bold because I thought you had implied it had just been issued for the 2pm advisory.

I didn't need a Hurricane Watch for Rita though. I made reservations further north 5 days out, when it was forecast to hit MEXICO, just in case. I guess I just don't understand why more people don't take personal responsiblity, and then bash the NHC when they can't forecast with 100% accuracy.

And I was NOT critical of parents sending their kids to school. Where did you see that? I said they should go pick them up if they're worried about them being there and not wait for someone to tell them to.