Hurricane Warnings/Watches Earlier for NC/SC???

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Hurricane Warnings/Watches Earlier for NC/SC???

#1 Postby fci » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:20 pm

OK, we all flamed enough about whether the NHC should have issued Hurricane Warnings for NC/SC earlier (or even at all at this time; 1:00 PM Thursday).

Please try not to take comments as "BASHING" of the NHC!!!

They are a governmental agency and thus can be called to task if the general public thinks they handled something incorrectly.

In my opinion; their handling of Ernesto for South Florida, though ultimately an overreaction in hindsight; was fine.
There was the POTENTIAL for Ernesto to intensify to a Hurricane between Cuba and South Florida and they told us that .
The fact that it did not happen was great but not predictable.
Better that residents were safe then caught of guard.

Having said that , they seemed to gone the other direction in their handling of NC/SC.

A Hurricane Watch at 11 AM that states that they condition may arrive in 12 hours is, im my opinion; absurd!
Why be so careful for South Florida and not for NC/SC???

I think a Hurricane Watch should have been maintained from its earlier release on Tuesday at 5:00 PM. This gave ample notice to NC/SC and preparations could have been planned for this potential landfalling hurricane then.

This Watch should not have been dropped only to be reissued a mere 12 hours before anticipated landfall.

I think a Hurricane Warning should have been issued no later than 5 AM Thursday bringing the, what should have been EXISTING Hurricane Watch up to a Warning.

This would have allowed people a chance to take final precautions without having to first go to work and then pick up kids from school.

Please do not accuse me of bashing the NHC.
I am merely pointing out where I believe they did not handle this storm correctly

I welcome others to join in the discussion and not clog up the other topics.
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#2 Postby CajunMama » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:27 pm

Just remember this if you choose to post in here:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87189
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#3 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:27 pm

I be you they are going by the best info they have available just as they did with FL. IF indeed it gets stronger - then - you can say what you want - until then - I don't think it is appropriate. Remember they have guidelines and rulse just as any other governmentle agency. IF they cross them without data to back it up - then, they will be reamed if it does not come true. As well as overhyping never helps for the next situation to come - we wouldn't listen to them again. How often are they right versus not?
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#4 Postby NCWeatherChic » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:38 pm

Well, too bad more people don't know about storm2k or take such interest in the tropics or weather in general as we all do, therefore we are better prepared than the next person. I know I had to go to the store earlier to get items for soup...yeah...it's raining, therefore a homemade vinson soup day. Anyway, the store was really busy and it was pouring outside. Usually that is the best time to go. The elderly man who bagged my groceries said, "Man, it's been busy all morning...you would think a hurricane was coming". :roll: I asked him if he had watched the news lately and he replied, "Nope, don't care much for televsion". I politely informed him of what was going on and that Ernesto may be just rain, but a lot of it or wind and rain. He was happy I told him and said he would phone his wife on his break to get her to start moving things in from outside and he would pick up some necessities just in case the power goes out.

One thing about living way out in the sticks...if the power goes out, you are the last get them back on. :grrr:

Angela
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#5 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:44 pm

Well. I love the NHC. I must admit. Little surprised the watches haven't been changed to warnings with winds up to 70mph though. Wondering on why that hasn't been upgraded at 2pm
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#6 Postby fci » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:47 pm

Pebbles wrote:Well. I love the NHC. I must admit. Little surprised the watches haven't been changed to warnings with winds up to 70mph though. Wondering on why that hasn't been upgraded at 2pm


Perhaps when winds reach 74, they will upgrade the watch to a warning.
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#7 Postby windnrain » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:48 pm

This has nothing to do with personal attacks on NHC. This is real criticism, and not at all personal, because they have made big mistakes, and we were discussing the nature of these mistakes. If all we did was say.. "NHC sucks, I hate the NHC, why do they exist.." then yes, that is a personal attack. If we say, "these watches should be warnings, the warnings should have never been dropped because Ernie never lost his potential to become a hurricane, and the NHC has gotten the forecast wrong because the NHC has said x has happened, when instead, y has happened" is not a personal attack, it is criticism.
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#8 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:52 pm

could it be the NHC advisory was done BEFORE they recieved reports of 70 mph? As cycloneeye said - possibly they will be issuing an intermediate advisory of hurricane warnings, when they know for certain? It takes times to put reports together.
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#9 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:52 pm

I wonder if they were edgy after issuing the warnings for florida and then nothing happend. Then maybe they didn't want to issue it because the forecast did not call for hurricane intensity. Then again why did they not drop the watches for FL when the storm was not forecasted to be a hurricane 6 hours prior to landfall.

I think there was a miscommunication somewhere along the lines and we will find out where as soon as the storm is over.
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#10 Postby southerngale » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:55 pm

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS

Doesn't that let people know they *could* receive hurricane conditions? Just expect them and if you don't get them, great!
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#11 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:56 pm

I posted in the other thread about NHC bashing, but as of the 2pm advisory I have to admit that now I'm stumped as to why the hurricane watch hasn't been upgraded to a warning. Perhaps there is forcast evidence that it will weaken before hitting the shore?
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#12 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:56 pm

Southflrodawx - I think there were so many factors affecting what could happen with FL which could have made the difference there. I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory issued if they see data that it will retain those winds at landfall.
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#13 Postby Okibeach » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:03 pm

I'm sure that if the NHC could do it over again they probably would change a few things. Hindsight being 20/20. I think almost all on this board agreed that "E" has been a very unusual storm. They do an incredibly tough job under tough circumstances, ie. so many agencies and local governents rely on their forecasts. So much emphasis is placed on preparation from the very start of the hurricane season. Those of us who live on the coast should have been mostly prepared for this storm regardless. I think the toughest battle for them sometimes is some of the media blowing things a bit out of proportion. Once "E" made Florida and was declared almost dead, those who are not as interested in weather as us, got complacent. NHC had always said that it would strengthen again once back over water. They have also always been very straightforward about their deficiencies in acurately predicting strength. Should they have kept the watch up? I think looking back on it that they would if they could do it again. But regardless of that, those that live here and are not prepared have only themselves to blame. As for the local governments, they will be blasted no matter which way they went and it will probably always be that way. I say Kudos to the NHC, as much as I love watching these storms, I would not want your job and overall you do an excellent job. :D
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#14 Postby fci » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:07 pm

southerngale wrote:A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS

Doesn't that let people know they *could* receive hurricane conditions? Just expect them and if you don't get them, great!


True, but what do we think, beyond the textbook definition; that a Hurricane Watch's purpose is?
I think it is to let the public know that conditions COULD arrive within 36 hours and to start to prepare in case the watch is upgraded to a warning closer in to landfall if conditions appear to be imminent.

I know that when we get a Hurricane Watch it is publicly explained to us just that way.

Watch- get prepared to take action
Warning- take action

So, if my definitions are acceptable; then issuing a watch 12 hours in advance provides no public service or purpose. I would think/hope that it was not issued so that a post-mortem would reveal the thought that "well at least we told them it could happen within 12 hours; job well done"
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#15 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:17 pm

The NHC does the best they can.......no matter how much equipment they use.........they cannot control the nature aspect of the weather..at times it will fool us all and do what it wants...that is nature..and the last time i looked we have no control over it.
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#16 Postby southerngale » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:27 pm

fci wrote:
southerngale wrote:A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS

Doesn't that let people know they *could* receive hurricane conditions? Just expect them and if you don't get them, great!


True, but what do we think, beyond the textbook definition; that a Hurricane Watch's purpose is?
I think it is to let the public know that conditions COULD arrive within 36 hours and to start to prepare in case the watch is upgraded to a warning closer in to landfall if conditions appear to be imminent.

I know that when we get a Hurricane Watch it is publicly explained to us just that way.

Watch- get prepared to take action
Warning- take action

So, if my definitions are acceptable; then issuing a watch 12 hours in advance provides no public service or purpose. I would think/hope that it was not issued so that a post-mortem would reveal the thought that "well at least we told them it could happen within 12 hours; job well done"


They didn't "just" issue it.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

They clearly say that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 12 hours. It's not a hurricane yet, and may not be, so they don't want to say hurricane conditions are imminent. YET it *could* become a hurricane, so they say that hurricane conditions are possible.

It lets people know that they could experience hurricane conditions, so just expect them. If you don't get them, great. If you do, you WERE warned that you might.

I guess I just don't see the big gripe. Take personal responsibility and prepare when you see a storm might be coming...tropical storm or hurricane.
If I had waited on a hurricane warning to prepare for Rita, I would have been up poop creek without a paddle. I took responsibilty for myself and my family when I saw the POTENTIAL.
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#17 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:30 pm

I hear all over the news at the beginning of the season to get prepared now before a storm comes our way, there fore when a watch is issued - I am in stand by mode, but fully prepared other than a final check on all my supplies, and then wait to see if the warning is issued and if so leave or put up shutters.
Last edited by artist on Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:30 pm

I emailed the school superintendent a few hours ago and actually got a response from him 15 minutes ago. He said they are in touch with emergency management and NWS and will soon decide whether they will close schools tomorrow altogether or have a delay! It's soon going to be 3 PM and we have about 5 or so hours until landfall. Decision should have been made this morning in my opinion.

I would think these decisions would've been made much earlier had there been a better forecast. Higher powers seem to have been caught flat-footed. But it is what it is. Do I believe NHC could've done a better job? Yes, I do. Do I think they are infallible? Of course I don't, but seems to me they dropped the ball between Florida and here.
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#19 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:31 pm

southerngale wrote: They clearly say that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 12 hours. It's not a hurricane yet, and may not be, so they don't want to say hurricane conditions are imminent. YET it *could* become a hurricane, so they say that hurricane conditions are possible.

It lets people know that they could experience hurricane conditions, so just expect them. If you don't get them, great. If you do, you WERE warned that you might.

I guess I just don't see the big gripe. Take personal responsibility and prepare when you see a storm might be coming...tropical storm or hurricane.
If I had waited on a hurricane warning to prepare for Rita, I would have been up poop creek without a paddle. I took responsibilty for myself and my family when I saw the POTENTIAL.


Great post! They always say you should prepare for a storm 1 category higher then it's projected, in this case you should prepare for a cat 1 Hurricane. If you don't you can't blame the NHC for it.
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#20 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:35 pm

Better safe than sorry
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