Ernie may affect DE, PA, MD and NJ

[angelwing]

Here is a current Flash Flood Watch for Home (Philadelphia, PA) until 6:00pm, Sat
Sep 2 2006, from your local National Weather Service office.



NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
904 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL
DELAWARE...KENT DE IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE...DELAWARE BEACHES AND INLAND SUSSEX IN
EASTERN MARYLAND...CAROLINE AND TALBOT IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNE'S IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...
COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...SALEM AND SOUTHEASTERN
BURLINGTON IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS IN SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND
PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS TO AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF THESE EXCESSIVE TOTALS ARE
REALIZED. THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WITH ERNESTO ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MORE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND WILL ONLY
AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING FLOODING.

A FLOOD FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG
STREAMS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

[CrazyC83]

The key factor IMO is the ridge over northern Ontario and where it is aligned.

If it remains where it is now, then there is an open escape route for Ernesto, roughly the Interstate 81 corridor and northward from there up to dissipation or some subarctic low to absorb it.

If it drifts east or southeast over central Quebec or down into the St. Lawrence Valley, the escape route is locked up. That leaves Ernesto trapped and waiting for a trough or front to absorb it, or dissipate over the area.

If the ridge drifts even farther east - say to Atlantic Canada, eastern Quebec or northern New England, the escape flow speeds up as the ridge would steer it north.

[Jim Cantore]

We dont need rain we've had 5 inches since friday. So if this unfolds I fear there will be flooding.

[ohiostorm]

I have been hearing things about central and western PA but what about eastern OH? We need alot of rain but not all at once. A couple inches would be nice.

[terstorm1012]

If it drifts east or southeast over central Quebec or down into the St. Lawrence Valley, the escape route is locked up. That leaves Ernesto trapped and waiting for a trough or front to absorb it, or dissipate over the area.

.

BAD solution.....think AGNES.

for what it's worth the Susquehanna has risen a bit in the last day or so....interesting if a flood happens this weekend with all the festivities like it did over the 4th of July...it'll send my city's mayor into one of his queen fits.

[angelwing]

Oh geez, I forgot about Agnes, ack!

Speaking of rivers, I noticed the Delaware by the PA/NJ border was high also yeesterday PM and early this AM, will be leaving work early and taking another gander at it this afternoon to see if it's gotten any higher

[Jim Cantore]

has risen a bit in the last day or so....interesting if a flood happens this weekend with all the festivities like it did over the 4th of July...it'll send my city's mayor into one of his queen fits.

Thats not good, I've heard many Agnes horror stories.

[terstorm1012]

Oh geez, I forgot about Agnes, ack!

Speaking of rivers, I noticed the Delaware by the PA/NJ border was high also yeesterday PM and early this AM, will be leaving work early and taking another gander at it this afternoon to see if it's gotten any higher

how much rain did you get that way?

You might be seeing the effects of the tide backing up the river, with that easterly to southeasterly flow the tide gets backed up in Delaware Bay. Are you above Trenton where you cross?

[coriolis]

Don't say that "A" word. It was THE historic flood everywhere in this region. In my work, things are designed for the "100-year flood" Agnes was estimated at anywhere from a 200-year to a 500-year storm.

[bjackrian]

Not just DE, PA, MD and NJ, but WV, VA, and DC too:

1157 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY EXCEPT GARRETT
COUNTY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA

* THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE

* WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD NORTH
AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL REACH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...AND INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG EAST FACING
RIDGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
AND URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LONGER DURATION RIVER FLOODING WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH
AS THE SHENANDOAH...POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET AND LOCAL MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT.

[angelwing]

Agnes was a mess, my parents home got flooded out badly, I was 11 at the time and I remember the water coming under the door and the scrambling around to get things out of the cellar.

Hmmm....does anyone have any river stages links? Like to keep an eye on the Delaware and the Surekill rivers here as I have to drive by both, would appreciate it!

[terstorm1012]

start with this one, angelwing: http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index. ... ,1,1,1,1,1

[bjackrian]

Hmmm....does anyone have any river stages links? Like to keep an eye on the Delaware and the Surekill rivers here as I have to drive by both, would appreciate it!

I use: http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/current/river_flooding/Stages.shtml

It's text based and not pretty, but last year at least it updated pretty quickly.

[angelwing]

how much rain did you get that way?

You might be seeing the effects of the tide backing up the river, with that easterly to southeasterly flow the tide gets backed up in Delaware Bay. Are you above Trenton where you cross?

We've gotten anywhere from 4-7 inches here depending where you live, and yes I do go above Trenton to cross to go home to Philly, will be taking the Trenton Makes Bridge this afternoon as I'll need to see how bad it is by route 29 so I can figure out if I'll go that way tomorrow. When I drove over the Burlington Bristol this AM I noticed the water level was higher than normal. We'll see how it is later.

[angelwing]

Thank you both for the links!

[Jim Cantore]

Agnes was a mess, my parents home got flooded out badly, I was 11 at the time and I remember the water coming under the door and the scrambling around to get things out of the cellar.

Hmmm....does anyone have any river stages links? Like to keep an eye on the Delaware and the Surekill rivers here as I have to drive by both, would appreciate it!

here ya go

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phi

[terstorm1012]

I also found this site incredible during the June Flood http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc/

[angelwing]

Thank you all

[bjackrian]

They've put up some sandbags around my campus (George Washington University) today. They're definitely expecting some significant rain up here. Fortunately, the rain forecast has been pretty steady for the last few days so we've had some time to prepare. The only issue would be if strong winds extend further inland than currently forecast.

[angelwing]

Went over the Trenton Makes Bridge around 3PM, water level was unchanged, so will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow. Keeping fingers crossed