Developing El Ninos and Texas hurricanes

[Portastorm]

With all of the discussion about a developing El Nino pattern and a lack of tropical action in the Western GOM this season, I thought I would post these conclusions from a NWS study done in 1997.

Food for thought:

"Although there is a correlation between weaker and fewer tropical cyclones during El Niño events for the Atlantic hurricane basin in general, this may not be the case for the western Gulf of Mexico and Texas. Records show that the relative frequency of tropical cyclones affecting the Texas coast is greatest during the El Niño to neutral phase, and is closely followed by the El Niño phase, suggesting there may be an increased threat of land-falling tropical cyclones during these periods.

The highest percentage of all major hurricanes which have affected the Texas coast occurred when El Niño was present for at least part of a given year. Thirteen of the seventeen major hurricanes which affected the Texas coast occurred during El Nino or partial El Nino years. Some of the most significant hurricanes ever to strike Texas occurred during strong or very strong El Niño years, including the 1900 Galveston hurricane which killed over 8000 people. Some other notable storms which occurred during strong or very strong El Niño years include the 1915, 1919 (the strongest hurricane on record to strike the Texas coast), and 1941 hurricanes. The last major hurricane to strike the Texas coast occurred in 1983 (Alicia) and was associated with the strongest El Niño event on record.

Although this study appears to indicate a positive correlation between both an increased frequency and intensity of land-falling tropical cyclones on the Texas coast during El Niño/partial El Niño years, the results should be used with caution because of the relatively small data set which was investigated. A more comprehensive study would be needed to analyze the potential effects of El Niño and non-El Niño phases on hurricane climatology along the entire United States Gulf Coast. Further investigation may reveal meteorological factors responsible for the results found in this research.

Here is a link to the study: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd97-37.htm