Anyone Think Ernesto Will Become A Hurricane, Again?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm beginning to think it may...just a Cat. 1, but, to me, the system looks very organized and it's going to spend a decent amount of time over warm waters in the next day or so...

[Old-TimeCane]

It may, but I don't think it'll amount to much (wind wise at least) here. It's going to be a windy, rainy day tomorrow here. I live about 12 miles inland, but work about 1/2-3/4 of a mile from the beach. I'm planning on taking a trip down to the beach after work tomorrow just to have a look if conditions allow for me to. Last I looked, it'll be hitting near here around 8 PM, and I get off at 5.

[WxGuy1]

I'm beginning to think it may...just a Cat. 1, but, to me, the system looks very organized and it's going to spend a decent amount of time over warm waters in the next day or so...

I think it looked better around noon when it had a very solid, impressive-looking convective band in the southwest 1/2 part very near the center of circulation. The radar presentation looks quite a bit worse than it did earlier today, IMO. There is some strong convection to the north and northeast of the center, but overall coverage has dropped since mid-day. Of course, now that it's over water, we'll just have to wait to see what it does. There seems to have been some enhancement of daytime convection from greater instability owing to diabatic heating (i.e. sunshine allowed the surface temperatures to warm, increasing instability).

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm mainly looking at the very good circulation, right now, not really the precip. The circulation should pick up lots of moisture before next landfall, IMO.

[WxGuy1]

I'm mainly looking at the very good circulation, right now, not really the precip. The circulation should pick up lots of moisture before next landfall, IMO.

Yeah, but the circulation has looked pretty decent all day. Convective precipitation coverage and organization is a pretty good indication of the 3D circulation and organization of cyclones. I'm not sure of the effect of smaller areas of strong convection vs. larger areas of weaker convection, so anyone want to run a model so we can look at latent heat release patterns?

[HurricaneBill]

I think it's unlikely, but considering how Ernesto seems to like going against forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me.

[RevDodd]

Ernesto is finally free of the limitations that held him in check all of his life. Nothing but warm water, no shear to speak of and wide open spaces between him and our neck of the woods.

I'm not sure why some folks seem so intent on labeling Ernesto a slackicane, but given the circumstance before him today, he certanly could drop the mmbs and pick up the winds to regain 'can form.

[Bane]

it looks very possible right now. sustained winds appear to currently be between 55-65 mph as reported from recon.

[SCMedic]

I've said since yesterday that I thought it would, and I continue to think it will. Don't be suprised to see 65mph @ 11am.

[shaggy]

latest obs show a open eye 25 miles wide and flight level winds of 61knts

[Stormsfury]

I wouldn't be surprised to see steady strengthening, but there might be some baroclinic enhancement processes going on but high end tropical storm force winds are not out of the question, and a small chance of minimal CAT 1 status.

It does have another 12 hours over water. If we see another explosion of convection like yesterday when Ernesto was over Florida, then I'd really be concerned of a quicker rate of strengthening ...

SF

[Stormavoider]

latest obs show a open eye 25 miles wide and flight level winds of 61knts

Were is this open eye?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[nequad]

Yes...it will reach minimal CAT 1 status before making landfall near Cape Fear in about 12-14 hours.

[Josephine96]

show me proof this thing has an eye

[bobbutts]

Vortex Data Message
A. 31/11:02:10Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
079 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1398 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 233 deg 061 kt
G. 127 deg 023 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 16 C/ 1445 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2105A ERNESTO OB 28
MAX FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 10:55:00 Z

[Aquawind]

I think it can. This is a good example how the mountains do a real number on systems versus flat lowlands.. Be prepared Carolinians!

[shaggy]

if im not mistaken the recon message the letter L is where they show if the eye is open or closed and it says open on the NW side which means it DOSN"T have a closed eye .......yet ....it has an open eye or COC

[emeraldislencguy]

i think we will have a cat 1 by 2 pm tody--the satellite presentation is looking better every hour and the warm water of the gulf stream are ahead--storms coming from this direction are never good for the eastern part of nc--this will put us on the right side of the storm is it hits near cape fear--high tide is around 1 p.m. tonight--so it it hits in the evening it will be on a rising tide

[cinlfla]

I do, Looking at the visable loop I do think that ernesto will be a hurricane at landfall.

[Jim Cantore]

As of now I'm giving it a 35% chance, Depending on the 11am advisory I could move that number up or down.