Well . . . it's official. Forecast to become minimal hurricane
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
EXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND
OF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA.
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
KRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN
THAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Kristy in EPAC
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301431
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER
SATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD
PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KRISTY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
SHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ42 KNHC 301431
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER
SATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD
PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KRISTY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
SHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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bombarderoazul
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 186
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146154
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
509
WTPZ42 KNHC 310236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM
1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.
ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48
HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN
2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES
SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS
THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 310236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM
1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.
ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48
HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN
2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES
SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS
THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
CentralFlGal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 573
- Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 9:32 pm
- Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM
WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE. T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB...
4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT
AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT
0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING
UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5. KRISTY AND HURRICANE
JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE.
AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE. IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE
KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT
ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND
SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26
CELSIUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KT. BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM
WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE. T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB...
4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT
AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT
0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING
UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5. KRISTY AND HURRICANE
JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE.
AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE. IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE
KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT
ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND
SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26
CELSIUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KT. BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146154
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
858
WTPZ42 KNHC 311439
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT. ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BANDING
THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS
DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN
TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE. BASED ON
THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST
IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL. THE
DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT
THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND
ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW
THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD GIVE
KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT. OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS
EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER
INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ42 KNHC 311439
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT. ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BANDING
THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS
DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN
TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE. BASED ON
THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST
IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL. THE
DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT
THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND
ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW
THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD GIVE
KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT. OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS
EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER
INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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AnnularCane
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cycloneye
- Admin
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WTPZ42 KNHC 010259
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM
2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE
CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE. DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER
AMORPHOUS. DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED
AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT
KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION
OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7. MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A
FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY
HURRICANE JOHN. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE
MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME. THUS
THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT
POSSIBILITIES.
AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED.
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID
THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM
2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE
CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE. DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER
AMORPHOUS. DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED
AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT
KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION
OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7. MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A
FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY
HURRICANE JOHN. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE
MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME. THUS
THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT
POSSIBILITIES.
AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED.
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID
THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Looks like she got a new name, though 
WTPZ42 KNHC 012055
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
SMALL TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN. DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
AND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. KRISSY IS VERY NEAR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL WESTWARD
DRIFT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK SO ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TO UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 118.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.2N 118.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z 19.2N 121.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ42 KNHC 012055
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
SMALL TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN. DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
AND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. KRISSY IS VERY NEAR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL WESTWARD
DRIFT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK SO ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TO UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 118.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.2N 118.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z 19.2N 121.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
fact789 wrote:LOOK AT THE 11PM GRAPHIC haha look at the movement.
Yeah, I haven't seen that in a long time...if ever.
The funny thing is, Tropical Storm Kristy is still alive. She was suppose to die over 24 hours ago but didn't, instead Kristy strengthened. I hope Kristy can continue for as long as possible at TS strength....need to rack up some more ACE!!
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