any wind threat to the carolinas

[NCHurricane]

It's not being treated as a huge threat because it's not exceptional. The storms will be no worse than your typical thunderstorm that can happen during any school day.

I do believe this is a very ignorant quote. I don't see tropical storm warnings, flood warnings, and whatever else for your "typical thunderstorm".

Be prepared for anything. 1000mb over land, and 20 hours or so over 85 degree water could make for a big suprise, especially since MB will be on the eastern side if it comes in in Awendaw like they're saying.

Now Medic, in all fairness, granted this probably will not be a Hurricane by the time is reaches your coast or mine, but it's not a Florida coast or Gulf Coast area, so of course it's not exceptional. Even if it was a Cat 3.

Chuck Copeland
NCHurricane.com

[millibar]

I fully expect this system to be quite a bit more than your everyday thunderstorm. And flooding is a very big deal whether you live in Down East SC or NC...or the Piedmont areas for that matter.

I'm certainly not hyping this sucker, but I am worried that Ernesto is being looked at as "just" a depression. Baroclinic interaction with the approaching cold front alone makes me very nervous. This system has not truly "acted" tropical for nearly it's entire lifespan. Ernesto has successfully "stumped the panel" quite well, and I'm not sure whether or not he will do so again before he "exits stage left"!!

So, my fellow Carolinians, keep your guard up for the next 36 hours or so...

Regards,
Millibar

[brunota2003]

hmmm...a Tropical Storm and thunderstorm the same? not...sure you may have a couple minutes of sustained winds in the low 40's in a thunderstorm, but that pales in comparision to a TS where you receive those same winds for HOURS on end. The rain is different also...you typicially receive an inch or 2 from a regular thunderstorm at MAX, yes I know you can receive alot more than that from a thunderstorm, just ask some of the folks who are here in NC, however for typical t-storms, not slow movers, but typic ones, you only receive 2 inches at most...in a TC you can receive 5-8 inches of rain with local amounts to 10+ inches. When you add that to an already filled up river or creek, it can easily lead to disaster, not to mention that even in only a 40 MPH TS those tree roots soften up and can get easily pushed over, another thing you typicially don't see in t-storms. T-storms knock out power to an area for a few hours, weak TS's knock them out for a day or so...as for the kids, school buses are high profile vehicles, and on a Wind Advisory/High Wind Warning (which ironicially is set at 35-45 MPH sustained I believe) what does it say? To use extreme caution as high profile vehicles can easily be blown over...why risk 100's of children/teens lives when you can just make the day up later? Not to mention that the TS can strengthen right before landfall...Also, there are inland warnings, for a landfalling system you typicially see Inland Hurricane Warnings and Inland Tropical Storm Warnings...just my $0.02

[BensonTCwatcher]

Guard is up. Folks not from NC probably never heard of a town called Princeville, and they did not see the water up to the 264 bridge during Floyd. The interaction with the front and rain is the killer. I don't see much going on though. I did hear a few things on the radio later this evening from the EOC etc.

[NCHurricane]

hmmm...a Tropical Storm and thunderstorm the same? not...sure you may have a couple minutes of sustained winds in the low 40's in a thunderstorm, but that pales in comparision to a TS where you receive those same winds for HOURS on end. The rain is different also...you typicially receive an inch or 2 from a regular thunderstorm at MAX, yes I know you can receive alot more than that from a thunderstorm, just ask some of the folks who are here in NC, however for typical t-storms, not slow movers, but typic ones, you only receive 2 inches at most...in a TC you can receive 5-8 inches of rain with local amounts to 10+ inches. When you add that to an already filled up river or creek, it can easily lead to disaster, not to mention that even in only a 40 MPH TS those tree roots soften up and can get easily pushed over, another thing you typicially don't see in t-storms. T-storms knock out power to an area for a few hours, weak TS's knock them out for a day or so...as for the kids, school buses are high profile vehicles, and on a Wind Advisory/High Wind Warning (which ironicially is set at 35-45 MPH sustained I believe) what does it say? To use extreme caution as high profile vehicles can easily be blown over...why risk 100's of children/teens lives when you can just make the day up later? Not to mention that the TS can strengthen right before landfall...Also, there are inland warnings, for a landfalling system you typicially see Inland Hurricane Warnings and Inland Tropical Storm Warnings...just my $0.02

Chuck Copeland
NCHurricane.com

[UpTheCreek]

Encore! Encore!

[brunota2003]

oh...and BTW:

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

I dont think 4-8 inches of rain with maximum amounts of up to 12 inches, yes a foot of rain, between now and saturday is something to sneeze at...but as someone who has watched flood waters sweep peoples things down stream, it is still only my $0.02

[ncbird]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT
AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-310400-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
848 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS POISED TO EMERGE BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. CHARLESTON AIRPORT CLOSURE
INFORMATION AS WELL AS INFORMATION CONCERNING THE PORT OPERATION
LEVEL FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...
LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND
CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CAROLINA....INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM
THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND
DORCHESTER COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...OR VERY NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY
MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNEST IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR BULLS BAY IN NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY AROUND 4 PM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE
BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT
ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE
LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE
AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL
843-549-5632.

THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT
OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT
11 AM EDT THURSDAY.

THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND
OUTBOUND IN HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO
CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME.

FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL
DISTRICT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING
THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE
BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD
STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE
BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS.

FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS.

...WINDS...
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE
STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS
ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BEAUFORT
AREA TO CHARLESTON...AWENDAW AND MCCLELLANVILLE.

...INLAND WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER
THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF
SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST
OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW
GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO
CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND
PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS
THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS
AND POSTED SIGNS.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON
COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 AM...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND
IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

$$

ST

[Regit]

actually there are inland wind advisories in place. 4-12" of rain is also not your typical thunderstorm.

Coastal SC is flat. All you'll get is river flooding after the event and some minor to moderate urban flooding.

this statement is pretty callous. if you own property along the rivers or areas prone to flooding, this is a big deal.

Wind advisories don't go into effect until 5PM, well after school is over.

As for the "callous" part, my point was that it has absolutely nothing to do with school closings. They don't close school because the river is going to flood in 2 days. The post was about emergency planning, not damage assessment.

Regit,
I would suggest that you check out Derek Ortts tropical analysis for his latest forecast... He is much respected on the boards.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89181

Thanks, but I don't need schooling on board members. I've been here for three years. Furthermore, I see nothing there about Derek's suggesting schools close. And schools are bound by the NHC forecasts, they can't close because one forecaster thinks it'll be stronger.



And I agree with what others said, that school buses have no business out during a 50-mph wind event. Luckily, those winds are not forecast for anywhere in Horry County during school hours Thursday. Just because you will have strong winds overnight doesn't mean you close school on Thursday. As I pointed out above, the wind advisories go into affect at 5:00 PM.

If Ernesto does indeed strengthen AND speed up, then Horry will be justified in sending kids home at noon. If either of those events happens on a dramatic scale, a decision to close will be made at 5:00 AM tomorrow.

[NC George]

As to the rain amount and river condition so far here in Greenville, the river matched the incoming tide for the first time in more than a week this evening, so it's on the way up. It is still only 4.5 feet deep. Ity was 2.5 feet deep at low tide 2 days ago - the lowest I've ever seen since I've been keeping track. Only a quarter of an inch of rain measured at the river station for today. The rain was really spotty all night, though, so I am pretty sure other parts of the county got more. We have only had 3.5 inches of rain all month (seems hard to believe considering some of the downpours we've had this month - but all 3.5 inches came in basically 3 events.

Just a side note, I saw a news team (NBC-12) from Erie, PA refueling at a Greenville station while I was at work tonight. They sure gave them a nice truck to ride in, too - a mid 90's Subaru Legacy! (I used to have one - probably good for Erie in the snow.) Pretty sure they are heading to the coast.