Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[craptacular]

VDM on the way.

636
SXXX50 KNHC 300535
AF300 1805A ERNESTO HDOB 52 KNHC
0522. 2512N 08022W 01519 0022 175 031 176 176 031 01550 0000000000
0523 2512N 08024W 01522 0027 173 029 180 180 030 01552 0000000000
0523. 2511N 08025W 01520 0030 181 027 182 170 029 01551 0000000000
0524 2511N 08027W 01522 0030 180 026 186 166 027 01552 0000000000
0524. 2511N 08029W 01521 0030 176 026 186 170 026 01552 0000000000
0525 2511N 08031W 01522 0032 177 026 186 170 026 01554 0000000000
0525. 2511N 08033W 01520 0031 180 025 186 176 025 01552 0000000000
0526 2511N 08034W 01521 0031 173 023 186 176 024 01553 0000000000
0526. 2511N 08036W 01522 0030 174 020 186 178 020 01554 0000000000
0527 2511N 08038W 01519 0030 171 020 190 178 022 01550 0000000000
0527. 2511N 08040W 01522 0030 178 016 188 180 017 01553 0000000000
0528 2510N 08042W 01519 0030 185 012 190 182 014 01550 0000000000
0528. 2510N 08043W 01523 0033 192 005 180 180 006 01557 0000000000
0529 2510N 08045W 01520 0035 233 002 180 180 002 01557 0000000000
0529. 2510N 08047W 01522 0032 317 002 180 180 003 01557 0000000000
0530 2511N 08049W 01522 0029 060 003 174 174 003 01552 0000000000
0530. 2511N 08051W 01519 0026 255 000 180 180 002 01546 0000000000
0531 2512N 08052W 01522 0018 001 000 186 176 001 01543 0000000000
0531. 2514N 08053W 01523 0021 058 004 180 178 005 01545 0000000000
0532 2515N 08054W 01520 0021 059 006 182 176 006 01542 0000000000

[craptacular]

855
SXXX50 KNHC 300545
AF300 1805A ERNESTO HDOB 53 KNHC
0532. 2516N 08056W 01521 0020 057 005 180 168 006 01542 0000000000
0533 2517N 08057W 01521 0022 046 006 186 160 007 01545 0000000000
0533. 2519N 08058W 01520 0031 050 009 186 170 010 01551 0000000000
0534 2520N 08059W 01523 0035 045 013 178 178 013 01559 0000000000
0534. 2521N 08101W 01519 0035 061 015 180 180 016 01555 0000000000
0535 2522N 08102W 01521 0027 063 017 182 178 017 01549 0000000000
0535. 2524N 08103W 01521 0032 068 017 180 180 018 01554 0000000000
0536 2525N 08104W 01521 0044 068 018 178 178 019 01566 0000000000
0536. 2526N 08106W 01521 0042 074 021 182 178 022 01563 0000000000
0537 2528N 08107W 01519 0051 077 023 182 170 024 01571 0000000000
0537. 2529N 08108W 01520 0055 075 026 178 170 027 01577 0000000000
0538 2530N 08110W 01520 0035 074 029 170 170 029 01556 0000000000
0538. 2532N 08111W 01519 0061 071 031 164 164 033 01580 0000000000
0539 2533N 08113W 01521 5018 066 031 174 174 032 01504 0000000000
0539. 2534N 08114W 01517 0016 069 031 164 164 032 01534 0000000000
0540 2536N 08115W 01523 0034 076 032 168 168 033 01558 0000000000
0540. 2537N 08116W 01523 0047 073 035 156 156 036 01572 0000000000
0541 2538N 08118W 01519 5013 056 035 158 158 036 01507 0000000000
0541. 2539N 08119W 01518 0001 054 032 152 152 033 01520 0000000000
0542 2541N 08120W 01525 0016 057 028 146 146 029 01542 0000000000

[craptacular]

Bye bye recon. Still waiting for the final VDM.

132
SXXX50 KNHC 300556
AF300 1805A ERNESTO HDOB 54 KNHC
0542. 2542N 08121W 01521 0027 064 031 150 150 035 01549 0000000000
0543 2543N 08123W 01518 0034 059 032 148 148 035 01553 0000000000
0543. 2544N 08124W 01521 0004 047 030 158 158 030 01525 0000000000
0544 2546N 08125W 01522 5005 047 031 166 166 032 01518 0000000000
0544. 2547N 08126W 01521 5020 046 030 166 166 030 01501 0000000000
0545 2548N 08128W 01522 5027 047 030 168 168 031 01496 0000000000
0545. 2549N 08129W 01520 5032 048 030 166 166 031 01489 0000000000
0546 2550N 08130W 01520 5037 048 030 168 168 030 01484 0000000000
0546. 2552N 08131W 01521 5034 047 028 170 168 029 01488 0000000000
0547 2553N 08133W 01617 5024 046 026 164 164 027 01595 0000000000
0547. 2554N 08134W 01827 5008 047 025 148 148 026 01820 0000000000
0548 2556N 08136W 02060 0015 051 024 144 144 025 02077 0000000000
0548. 2557N 08137W 02313 0031 053 025 130 130 025 02347 0000000000
0549 2558N 08139W 02569 0049 054 023 116 116 023 02622 0000000000
0549. 2559N 08141W 02816 0068 057 025 098 098 026 02888 0000000000
0550 2600N 08142W 03083 0091 051 023 082 082 024 03179 0000000000
0550. 2602N 08144W 03384 0109 048 026 064 064 028 03498 0000000000
0551 2603N 08146W 03640 0126 056 028 050 050 030 03772 0000000000
0551. 2604N 08148W 03862 0142 056 035 040 038 037 04011 0000000000
0552 2605N 08149W 04093 0162 055 035 030 028 036 04259 0000000000

[craptacular]

Pressure shot up from 1003 to 1008.

URNT12 KNHC 300554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 30/05:28:50Z
B. 25 deg 10 min N
080 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1491 m
D. NA kt
E. 0NA deg 000 nm
F. 172 deg 041 kt
G. 087 deg 043 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 18 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1522 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.03 / 6 nm
P. AF300 1805A ERNESTO OB 27
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 04:44:00 Z

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO MAKES SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST
OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[craptacular]

Last VDM

1008 mb
05:29 25'10"N 80'45"W

should be pretty much right on the coast of the mainland now

moved 15 degrees (NNE) at 8 mph

Good night.

[Colossus]

Last night during a teleconference call at the Emergency Operations Center, all that was essentially said was that it will be a crappy day here in the Tampa Bay area. Emphasis was noted for Law Enforcement and Fire/Rescue to prepared to probably have a lot of traffic accidents (since schools are not expected to close). The Bay Area situation is going to be evaluated at the 9:00 am call in, but they anticipate gusty winds (the Skyway Bridge is closed to high profile vehicles when winds reach 45 mph), 2 to 6 inches of rain and not much else. Last night the original thought was that if the storm shifted at least 20 more miles westward, then they would go into panic mode in attempting to kick in last minute action plans. It is a hard storm to prepare for (other than the standard procedures) when it is so broken and dysjointed in it's form.

[Colossus]

Last night during a teleconference call at the Emergency Operations Center, all that was essentially said was that it will be a crappy day here in the Tampa Bay area. Emphasis was noted for Law Enforcement and Fire/Rescue to prepared to probably have a lot of traffic accidents (since schools are not expected to close). The Bay Area situation is going to be evaluated at the 9:00 am call in, but they anticipate gusty winds (the Skyway Bridge is closed to high profile vehicles when winds reach 45 mph), 2 to 6 inches of rain and not much else. Last night the original thought was that if the storm shifted at least 20 more miles westward, then they would go into panic mode in attempting to kick in last minute action plans. It is a hard storm to prepare for (other than the standard procedures) when it is so broken and dysjointed in it's form.

If anything interesting comes out of the 9:00 am EOC teleconference, I'll let you know...

[cycloneye]

138
WTNT35 KNHC 301145
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY NEAR LATITUDE 26.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE
WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO
RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT
ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL
STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 26.4N 80.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

203
WTNT35 KNHC 301739
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS ABOUT 60 MILES...95
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[storms in NC]

How old are these updates?Cause I know we get them early.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AT 5PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.6 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

AT 5PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A
FEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN
ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING
ERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.
BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48
HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 27.6N 80.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Josephine96]

Correct me if I'm wrong.. but the pressure has actually DROPPED several mb's today.. while this thing is over land mind you.. strange storm..

[CrazyC83]

Correct me if I'm wrong.. but the pressure has actually DROPPED several mb's today.. while this thing is over land mind you.. strange storm..

Ernesto has been one strange storm to follow...

[AnnularCane]

Ernie... I think you're a little mixed up.

[Josephine96]

He must like the Florida oranges or somethin

[JonathanBelles]

hes havin a citrus martini.

[Josephine96]

Can we have him investigated for steroids I know, cheap shot.. sorry

[CrazyC83]

He must like the Florida oranges or somethin

Yeah, at this point I almost think he could become a TS again with the center over land...