A Major Mistake.

#1 Postby **OuterBanker** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:51 pm

I know no one is supposed to criticize the NHC but I believe that downgrading Ernesto was a rather large mistake. Mainly because it gave the east coast a sigh of relief. The 11 am 5 day took the OBX out of the cone so quite literally everyone is going on their merry way. Meanwhile, Ernesto is looking better than ever before, the eastern half of NC is blowing up with tstorms and heavy rain (after last nights storms). If Ernesto does shift east to Wilmington or Cape fear it will have enough time over very warm water to become a minimal hurricane. In short I think everything from Raleigh east could be in for a rude awakening. As well as north through VA, NJ, etc. I really hope I will be eating crow Saturday, I really don't want this to happen at all. But I have a gut feeling that we are in for it. Just my 2 cents worth.

Thunder44 · #2 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:53 pm

NHC downgraded Ernesto because it no longer had sustained TS force winds. If people want to let their guard down because it's a TD, that their fault. There are TS Warnings issued, and NHC needs to do nothing more.

Stratusxpeye · #3 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:56 pm

Thunder44 wrote:NHC downgraded Ernesto because it no longer had sustained TS force winds. If people want to let their guard down because it's a TD, that their fault. There are TS Warnings issued, and NHC needs to do nothing more.

Stated perfectly. And I also highly doubt ernesto will be anything more than 50mph to at most pushing it 60 mph once it reaches nc or sc. IMO

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:07 pm

I'll go on a higher end.. I think maybe 55-65..

#5 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:49 pm

FWIW, I think it could at the least become a minimal hurricane before the next landfall.

huricanwatcher · #6 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:56 pm

My 2 cents worth. is.....

WE ARE WAY OVERDUE FOR A NASTY A$$ CANE IN EASTERN NC....

<<<<<off my soapbox now

(edited for bad words... sorry)

#7 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:57 pm

Hey I agree, not about the NHC but the fact people up and down the coast are sighing with relief. Wally world is not busy, plenty of supplies and everyone is going about their merry way here as well. This is definitly not being taken serious since the downgrade. Even the local mets here are saying, remember CHarlie, this will be a little less. There will be no shelters opened for this event here i Horry county. They did say the operation center is open, had a reporter there, and the place was empty. I just hope they have not let their guard down too soon.

#8 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:59 pm

well the governor here in NC did activate the National Guard along with 21 SWIFT water rescue teams...so at least he is getting ready

huricanwatcher · #9 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:01 pm

brunota2003,

SWIFT WATER? OMG we have that here in NC... oh yeah only Pitt county has that slow crawling mud hole of what you call a 'river' .......

Eyes2theSkies · #10 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:03 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:My 2 cents worth. is.....

WE ARE WAY OVERDUE FOR A NASTY A$$ CANE IN EASTERN NC....

<<<<<off my soapbox now

(edited for bad words... sorry)

And it is not going to be this one :-)

huricanwatcher · #11 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:03 pm

WOW!!!!!!!! IM A CAT 3 NOW... hehehe busy day

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:05 pm

huricanwatcher, yep...the SWIFT water teams are getting prepared or are already ready...heard it on the radio (95.1 FM) oh, and the Neuse River here in Craven is slow...but Slocum creek is pretty rough even when it doesnt flood...

Stratusxpeye · #13 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:06 pm

brunota2003 wrote:well the governor here in NC did activate the National Guard along with 21 SWIFT water rescue teams...so at least he is getting ready

If you can get his cell number ring him up and let him know to not waiste the money on getting anything ready. Put the money into the kids education or something.

My 2 cents (Again on ernesto)

huricanwatcher · #14 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:11 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:well the governor here in NC did activate the National Guard along with 21 SWIFT water rescue teams...so at least he is getting ready

If you can get his cell number ring him up and let him know to not waiste the money on getting anything ready. Put the money into the kids education or something. My 2 cents (Again on ernesto)

ya deserve 4 cents for that post...... (hey..... where is all the NC Education Lottery money going anyway) NOT IN THE SCHOOLS..... oh ..... another new church down the road.. lol

obxicane · #15 Postby **obxicane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:17 pm

I'm not overly concerned, more about minor flooding than the wind. Hopefully we'll have a very peaceful three day weekend here.

O/T - The NC Education lottery is a sham. Only 35% of the money goes to education. That's just not right.

huricanwatcher · #16 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:21 pm

obxicane, OK that explains the principal of my sons school getting a 100% raise this year......

Im hoping for a nice 3 day weekend here.... but something just telling (gut feeling) that I am going to be too tired from being up all night thursday into friday ... to enjoy it

obxicane · #17 Postby **obxicane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:26 pm

Yeah, more for the buraucrats to spend.....

We're still getting rumbles of thunder after probably 2 to 3 inches of rain this afternoon. And that was after some horrendous storms last night. I know of two houses that were hit by lightning and blew holes in the roofs.

Of course, it has been pretty dry up to this point here.

RevDodd · #18 Postby **RevDodd** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:29 pm

We had one round last night, another this afternoon and more popping up in Moore County now.

It's not too late for everyone to hunker down at South of the Border.....

#19 Postby **ncbird** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:35 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:well the governor here in NC did activate the National Guard along with 21 SWIFT water rescue teams...so at least he is getting ready

If you can get his cell number ring him up and let him know to not waiste the money on getting anything ready. Put the money into the kids education or something. My 2 cents (Again on ernesto)

Well seeing we are getting heavy rains of 5 in/hr in some places in NC today and already have flood warnings from a weather system that has nothing to do with E, I would have to say our governor is looking out for the welfare of his people. If I could get his cell phone number I really think I would much rather tell him thank you for having the wisdom to prepare ahead of time. You never know... just maybe the 21 SWIFT water rescue team will save the life of a kid so he has a chance to have an education. Just My 2 cents

obxicane · #20 Postby **obxicane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:39 pm

I've got no problem with the Governor doing what he thinks he has to. After Katrina, I would expect most politicians to play it safe with these types of decisions.

OTOH, I could go on all day about the lottery.

A Major Mistake.

A Major Mistake.

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