any wind threat to the carolinas

[emeraldislencguy]

last night theywere talking about a wind threat and threat of high waves--it sounds like now that threat is not great--any thoughts from the board??

[Jim Cantore]

Ernesto I believe is forecast to reach 60mph again.

40-50mph can snap branches but the issue is going to be flooding.

[Lowpressure]

Looking for 4 inches of rain here in the Charlotte Metro area.

[NCgreenhead]

Well we have to wait and see how strong ole ernie gets once he gets back over water it looks like he may be moving off the coast fairly soon and the center is fairly broad but if it exit now and makes landfall around the NC/SC border he will have around 36-48 hrs over water. The NHC seems to think this is not long enough for him to get his act together so primary threat is rain.

However I am a bit bothered by the fact that IF he does strengthen faster than expected ( and there are some thing that would indicate some decent strengthing although they seem to blow it off at the 11 discussion) we would only have a day or so to prepare for something more than a weak TS so until he has been out over the atlantic for awhile I would not write him off at all.

[Brent]

I doubt it's going to strengthen much. Maybe up to 50 mph at most. It really isn't going to have enough time over water. If it couldn't strengthen before Florida then I don't see it.

[weatherwoman]

I think the hurricane center has written it off to soon. Until it is finished with all water they shouldnt do that. when it gets in the water again and heads up the gulf stream it could really build up again. Still think NC will get a cat 1 jb says about 60 miles east of cape fear, and thats about where i am. i'm stocking up on a few things anyway, cant be to save. i love my water to much to not have any for days. my sister works for a elect company and they have already told them they have to work all nite thrus and friday ccemc in morehead so be ready folks then if we dont need to be so what.

[storms in NC]

Well we have to wait and see how strong ole ernie gets once he gets back over water it looks like he may be moving off the coast fairly soon and the center is fairly broad but if it exit now and makes landfall around the NC/SC border he will have around 36-48 hrs over water. The NHC seems to think this is not long enough for him to get his act together so primary threat is rain.

However I am a bit bothered by the fact that IF he does strengthen faster than expected ( and there are some thing that would indicate some decent strengthing although they seem to blow it off at the 11 discussion) we would only have a day or so to prepare for something more than a weak TS so until he has been out over the atlantic for awhile I would not write him off at all.

You are very right. But I here not worried over the wind it is the rain. The Northeast Cape Fear River is only inder a 1/2 mile from my back door and the creek is about 400 feet And both full. I just hop Raleigh don't get much or we will have floyd over again

[UpTheCreek]

I agree with Brent, I don't see it giving us too much. You're NE of Cape Fear...and they are projecting it to go well west of us. Of course keep an eye on it, but I don't put a heck of a lot of stock in what JB says over the NHC. But that's just me!

[ncbird]

I am not ready to just count E out yet. I am not a met, but I have done a huge amount of study on the effects of tropical systems that affect NC both directly and indirectly. Even if he doesn't make hurricane status, he is forecast to be put down allot of rain. And lets not forget the high risk of tornado's. Then there is the matter of another weather system meeting up with E, which is forecast to slow things down and cause increased winds. All of these combined with the fact that most of our inland property damage and loss of life as a result from tropical systems in NC come from flooding and tornadoes. I for one am keeping my eyes open as E makes his progress North and plan on being prepared. If nothing happens.. nothing lost and I am ready in case another threat comes later, but if it does, well I'll be ready and not wishing I would have done more.

Be safe all
NCBird

[UpTheCreek]

I'll put most of my faith in what the NHC is saying.....but expect the worst and hope for the best. That's really all one can do. No need to get excited in my view.

I am guessing the thunderstorms of a couple weeks ago gave me more problems than this will. Speaking of thunder and lightning.....getting some now!

[krisj]

The projected amount of rain for NC is huge! I think that flooding might end up being a major issue for many.

[NCgreenhead]

It look better on sat and radar and if anything appears to be getting better organized, the reson it did not get going before it hit FL was due to upper level condition more than anything else. From what I have read it appears to that conditions off the SE coast are better suited for development that said it would need to get going get over water and come in east of forecast track. A lot of storms have gone from weak TS to CAT 1-2 in less than 36 hrs so I do not understand everyone saying it is not going to have enough time, if the conditions are right and the storm can organize there is no reason why it could not make it back to a hurricane. I however at this time do not think it will but I may feel different later tomight after we see how it does back over water.

Look like most of central and east NC in for a rock and roll afternoon looks like widespread storms and we really do not need 1-3" of rain today with all we are expecting from Ernie.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

What concerns me for North Carolina is the amount of rain they're receiving TODAY - flood warnings/watches already out from the frontal boundary - add Ernesto rains on top of that and I think we're going to be looking at some major flood problems.

[UpTheCreek]

I may have to backslide on my previous comments......the thunderstorm we are having now is very severe with very heavy rain.

[monsoon]

Having lived in Raleigh and experienced first hand the effects of Fran and Floyd on Eastern NC, I am wary of any big rainmaker in that area. Fran hit Raleigh 10 years ago September 5.

[ncbird]

I think the best place to check on flooding and weather in general is your National Weather Service Forecast Office for your area. They can provide you with much information for your area. Here are the ones for NC. (note some of NC counties are listed under other state offices.. like Blacksburg, Va includes NW NC counties).

Blacksburg, VA. Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/

MorrisTown, TN Office
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/

Newport/Morehead City, NC Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/

Raleigh, NC Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/

Wakefield, VA Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/

Wilmington, NC Office
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/

The NHC and all the other weather services do the best they can to inform you, but they are not responsible for you. Stay Safe, Be Prepared, and remember the one who is really responsible for your safety is you.

[monsoon]

What concerns me for North Carolina is the amount of rain they're receiving TODAY - flood warnings/watches already out from the frontal boundary - add Ernesto rains on top of that and I think we're going to be looking at some major flood problems.

Raleigh received nearly 10 inches of rain in the two days before Fran hit. Fran brought 10 more inches and 80 mph winds. The result was catastrophic downing of trees due to saturated soil. Every home in my neighborhood was damaged by falling trees. Including the one that bisected our upstairs bonus room.

Looking at Nexrad, Eastern NC has received 1 - 4 inches of rain today, and it continues.

Your scenario frightens me.

[ncbird]

What concerns me for North Carolina is the amount of rain they're receiving TODAY - flood warnings/watches already out from the frontal boundary - add Ernesto rains on top of that and I think we're going to be looking at some major flood problems.

Yes this is concerning. There are some places that are getting 5 in/hr rain. Tornado warnings and flood warnings and the radar is full of color. Not the best thing with a tropical system heading this way. I know many of our northern counties have been in a drought, so can use a little rain, but do worry so much rain so fast will be more than the ground, creeks, and rivers can handle. No doubt flooding is going to be a big problem for some areas.

I don't think this will be another Floyd type flooding.. that was the result of 2 tropical systems (seemed more like 3 systems, Dennis, Dennis the sequel, and Floyd) that dropped rain on us for days and days, back to back.

A little something extra, just heard on our scanner a woman trapped in her car, sheriff came back and said he had chest waders but they wouldn't do any good. PLEASE, if you see water, don't try and drive through it. It really is easy, TURN AROUND DON"T DROWN

[Regit]

What concerns me for North Carolina is the amount of rain they're receiving TODAY - flood warnings/watches already out from the frontal boundary - add Ernesto rains on top of that and I think we're going to be looking at some major flood problems.

Well if you're in MB, I wouldn't be worried about just NC. A lot of NC's water flows down through the Waccamaw and Little Pee Dee. Floyd's flooding was horrible in NE SC.

[huricanwatcher]

oh Gov Easleys news conference this morning - to quote him....

WE have reports that the center of the storm will come between Wilson and Greenville ....

----------- thats my backyard ...... *******SIGH********