let this be a lesson....

[crazycajuncane]

i hear ya jin... It's hard not to when all the media sources are acting the fool too lol.

Sometimes you just gotta sit back and chill for a minute. If I freaked out all weekend about a possible Louisiana hit... I would be pretty aggrivated to see Ernesto boy hitting Florida... sometimes ya just gotta relax.

Hype the little storms and when the big one comes.... you know people been saying it all day and they are 100% correct. When the big one comes they'll look back to the hyped storms that did nothing. It may not be in 2006 or 2007... might not be till 2010 when we see a Cat.3 or 4 hitting a big city. We have to be careful not to jump the gun everytime something is spinning.

[jinftl]

i totally agree....it is so easy to get caught up in the frenzy.....i know when i read that quote from the NHC on Monday morning, it was quite a way to start the week! So I think alot of us just kept assuming that even though the storm was off of cuba today, that it was going to blow up before it hit florida....after all the NHC was saying that was possible, so much so that they put us in a hurricane watch.

But I would say having access to all this information is ultimately a good thing....i have learned alot from so many folks here....and us south florida people have a thing for our hurricanes saviness!

[kenl01]

I knew personally there was no way this thing would be a cat 2 or 3 any time soon. That was a crazy statement ! The structure looked terrible yesterday morning, and even on visible satellite imagery, this thing looked like nothing but a small blob of convection. Gosh, I've seen thunderstorms bigger than that in summer ! Land interaction over Hispanolia really took a bite out of this storm.
In addition, there were discussions of dry air to the north of the system, and even mid level shear - so there's no way this system could have gained strength so quickly, given the poor structure !
For me, it was common sense.
IF it had been already a strong cat 1 or 2 (lets say 80 to 100 mph), then I would have bought that statement.
Bottom line: Believe it when you see it already occurring ! If it's nothing but a weak TS, don't buy into the hype (or maximum model intensity) until there are very clear signs of rapid strengthening, improving structure, size, and organization.

[DanKellFla]

kenl01, not buying into the hype is good advice, but sometimes it is too late to prepare once you see that "signs" happening. Ideally, food, water and some fuel should be on hand already. But there is still stuff to bring in from around the house, panels to be put up if you don't have accodians and yes, a quick run to the store and to top off the tank of gas in the car.

I didn't know that it wasn't going to be a cat 2 or 3. Even the remotest possibility put me in "fully prepare" mode. My opinion was that it was going to be nothing that big, but I am not a met. And, over the past 15 years that I have been tracking hurricanes, the NHC has gotten much better at predicting the path. I still think a 5 day track is amazing. So, this time the path and model aggrement was low. So they are not perfect. But we have gotten so used to the paths being so good that sometimes we forget that weather is a difficult beast to predict.

[kenl01]

kenl01, not buying into the hype is good advice, but sometimes it is too late to prepare once you see that "signs" happening. Ideally, food, water and some fuel should be on hand already. But there is still stuff to bring in from around the house, panels to be put up if you don't have accodians and yes, a quick run to the store and to top off the tank of gas in the car.

I didn't know that it wasn't going to be a cat 2 or 3. Even the remotest possibility put me in "fully prepare" mode. My opinion was that it was going to be nothing that big, but I am not a met. And, over the past 15 years that I have been tracking hurricanes, the NHC has gotten much better at predicting the path. I still think a 5 day track is amazing. So, this time the path and model aggrement was low. So they are not perfect. But we have gotten so used to the paths being so good that sometimes we forget that weather is a difficult beast to predict.

True, weather is difficult to predict. However, with this "particular system" I would have simply used common sense based on your own observations, plus there were discussions available on the analysis forums and elsewhere that conditions (due to current intensity,structure, dry air, shear, and time proximity to land) were not very good for rapid development.
The skill in intensity forecasts is still limited.
Based on those factors, the idea of this particular system reaching cat 2 or cat 3 in such a short time frame seemed very unrealistic, at least to me. People should remember, this year is not 2004 or 2005. Totally different conditions.

[HardCard]

yes, and having said ALL of that.. I believe 2006 is about to start winding down throughout the next 2-3 weeks..

Probably to the dismay of the fan boys who want to see 4 simultaneous cat 5's

[Jim Cantore]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

Aint it the truth, Fear for ratings. Thats why I couldn't help but chuckle when their doomsday storm made landfall as a 45mph TS in Florida.

[sunny]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance.

You can have all of 'em Trust me, I do not want to ever see another tropical system.

[Noah]

Good advice certainly, but as a newbie around here, let me say that I've dropped by many Internet forums, and I've seen precious few where the members are as mannerly, reasonable, and respectful as they are on this one.

There's very little kid stuff here, thankfully.

WE have great members..but our mods keep the BS down to a minimum

[CajunMama]

WE have great members..but our mods keep the BS down to a minimum

Well, we try! It can be quite daunting at times! Thanks for the compliment.

[O Town]

The proportion of people I disagree with for any spot seems roughly proportional to the number of coastal residents who haven't seen a major hurricane recently. Lots in TX and FL - some in NC/SC, and pretty few in MS/AL/LA.

What do you consider recently? Alot of people went through he!! in 2004 with 4 storms here , 3 that affected me directly. 1 was a cat 4, 2 were cat 3's, and 1 very slow moving cat 2 that flooded us all out. So I would not say we in FL have not been affected in recent years. And lets not forget last year with Wilma.

[Pebbles]

yes, and having said ALL of that.. I believe 2006 is about to start winding down throughout the next 2-3 weeks..

I'm very surprised to see this. You do know that the PEAK of the season isn't untill 2 or 3 weeks away right? It's no where near winding down yet but instead probably just starting to wind up.

[chadtm80]

hurricane dude it seems every post you make these days is to repramand members for not posting how you want them to.. And I mean almost EVERY post.. Maybe you just ignore what you dont want to hear and your life will be a lot smoother

[Zackiedawg]

In general these forums seem to be pretty reasonable. We are all weather enthusiasts. That means we enjoy following, observing, and tracking weather...even big deadly storms. Sometimes our enthusiasm in seeing something not often seen...a big cat 4 or 5 storm, amazing tight eye, super low pressure...can cause us to temporarily post an 'exciting' sounding post. And sometimes, those in the crosshairs get offended that this is insensitive and shows a lack of concern or care for others.

I honestly don't believe anyone who ever posted 'wow, beautiful, amazing' or the like for a storm like Katrina or Rita did so without caring about the people affected - they were just so rabidly following the weather phenomenon that they hadn't yet focused on the possible consequences.

As for those who ARE in the path of the storm, and post about how 'cool' it will be, or how 'wimpy' or stupid a storm was that didn't bring widespread destruction...many of them probably are younger folks who are excited about experiencing winds and rains and extreme weather, but don't have to deal with any of the financial consequences. I was once a boy who was excited about Hurricane David coming our way...and disappointed when it veered off. But once you own your own property, and pay your own insurance bills, you gain a new perspective on these storms. I am still an enthusiast...I still follow, track, and get a thrill out of seeing extreme weather. Even if I am in the crosshairs...there is an element of excitement. But it is also tempered with an element of respect, an element of fear, an element of hope that it doesn't cause damage. Because of that, regardless of how much I may enjoy watching a tropical system on a satellite or radar, or even how much the temporary thrill of feeling the rain bands and the wind pull the air from my lungs at 100+ MPH, I will always be hoping and praying that a storm drop in intensity or steer away from populated land.

As for the predictions...that's what the site is all about. That's what many of us amateurs are here for...we want to see what professionals are discussing and guessing...and we want to learn and participate in it ourselves, to increase our understanding and broaden our knowledge on how these systems work. Being 'right' or 'wrong' isn't important...it is the process of researching, observing, guessing, and then learning why your guess was wrong or right, that makes us more knowledgeable people and helps all of us to better understand how to react to and gauge the next storm to come along.

Everyone should be as curious to learn, and knowledgeable about storms, as those amateurs here are. Anyone in the path of a storm would do themselves much better to come to a site like this and read these forums to learn about what a storm is doing, how it is forming, which way it is going, and how to prepare for it...than to get caught up in media hype.

I personally am very thankful I found the site. As an amateur weather enthusiast, I have increased my knowledge, broadened my weather vocabulary, and learned how to better read the data available to me from NOAA and NHC to determine a proper course of action in an impending storm. For Wilma, I read all the discussion in here, and came away thinking that Wilma was going to deliver a pretty solid Cat 2 blow all the way through and that I should really prepare for the worst hit since I've lived here...when my neighbors and others were following the media, some of whom were downplaying the storm having to come across all that land. During Ernesto, I followed this board and determined that there would not be any significant threat and that no preparation would be necessary at all - unlike the media who were relentlessly hyping this storm and the potential threat and damage it will bring.

Thank you S2K forums, and members, for the intelligent, interesting, and useful discussions and threads filled with more useful information than anything media will ever provide.

[bayoubebe]

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

The proportion of people I disagree with for any spot seems roughly proportional to the number of coastal residents who haven't seen a major hurricane recently. Lots in TX and FL - some in NC/SC, and pretty few in MS/AL/LA. Most seem to be teenage boys - and I understand the thrillseeking aspect of that age. I wouldn't mind an occasional one, it's just that there's so MUCH. It gets tiresome. I notice some "worrycasters" from the affected regions but not many and of course that's very understandable.

Actually, the people I disagree with from FL seem mostly disappointed or even upset they didn't get a major hurricane. It's pretty understandable - most people don't seem to fear hurricanes much until they experience them. My cousins were in Mobile for Frederic. They weren't too concerned, and were set up for a kind of family hurricane party with candles and activities. After Frederic - I can't do their descriptions justice - my aunt goes well inland any time there's a hurricane ANYWHERE in the Gulf. And he was "only" a 3, and Mobile's not right on the ocean.

ditto! You nailed it!

[ObsessedMiami]

I agree that I have learned a great deal from these forums over the past two years and for that I thank this community. I am disappointed, however, in the tone of these boards in the last month. Between Chris and Ernesto, a lot of the posters have found a voice of "authority", disparaging opposing points of view and even calling pro mets and the NHC "fools". There is a big difference between "I do not understand why the NHC still has a hurricane watch up for South Florida. Conditions do not favor development." and "Man, the NHC is blowing this big time! I have seen stronger seabreeze fronts! There is no way this is justified. I guess Max ought to retire now." I guess 2005 spawned as many experts as storms. The -removed- namecalling is just another nail in the coffin. Just my 2 cents.

[HurricaneJim]

Well, I think it goes to show that if you anywhere near a coastline you need to think about being prepared months out. These storms crop up and they go wherever it is that they're supposed to go and that's really the bottom line.

As we saw, even the pro's down at NHC were getting one curve ball after another thrown at them with this storm. It happens. The weather guys are human and they can only do what they can do and then it's pretty much in the hands of mother nature.

Don't get into a situation where you're one of those waiting in line last minute trying to buy sold out supplies and it really shouldn't matter where the track is at any given point.


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[Noah]

Thank you S2K forums, and members, for the intelligent, interesting, and useful discussions and threads filled with more useful information than anything media will ever provide.

Exellent post!

When you get even 2 people together they will have a difference of opinion.
We are all entitled to our opinion, but people are people and sometimes we want others to agree and think like us.
Others like the debate, and so it goes.

[sunny]

Well, I think it goes to show that if you anywhere near a coastline you need to think about being prepared months out. These storms crop up and they go wherever it is that they're supposed to go and that's really the bottom line.

As we saw, even the pro's down at NHC were getting one curve ball after another thrown at them with this storm. It happens. The weather guys are human and they can only do what they can do and then it's pretty much in the hands of mother nature.

Don't get into a situation where you're one of those waiting in line last minute trying to buy sold out supplies and it really shouldn't matter where the track is at any given point.


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Words of wisdom right here.

[HurricaneJim]

Have gun, uh, I mean Kestrel 2000...will travel!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html