Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:00 pm

Image

Don't discount this area of low pressure located near 18N 43W.

While conditions are not favorable for quick development right now, there are signs that the SAL is fading as it moves westward and upper-level winds could become marginally favorable during the day tomorrow. The GFS is forecasting the trough to the west and northwest to split into a HUGE upper-level low that covers the entire Western Atlantic and Caribbean. If that verifies, there should be favorable conditions through the next 48 hours for some development.

Yesterday, we saw puffs of thunderstorms developing near the circulation. Today, those puffs became more concentrated near the center of the low. This indicates that as the system moves slowly westward the dry air is not being as much of a factor. Keep in mind that this system already has an area of circulation, so any major increase in convection could bring this system to a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.

I'll keep an eye on it as it is possible an invest classification will be issued sometime tomorrow.

EDIT: CHANGE TITLE OF THREAD
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:04 pm

Great post Hyperstorm..This system has been showing a descent area of low pressure since it went off the coast(clearly seen in visible imagery)... Lets see what happens..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:08 pm

Hyperstorm,to not confuse the members as they see the pic and look at that area of convection around 30w-35w,let's clarify what area you are talking about .The area Hyperstorm is talking about is around 18n-43w.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Jam151
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:09 pm

#4 Postby Jam151 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:09 pm

Yeah i just notcied this myself, something to watch. We could have two systems in the next few days...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:43 pm

This system only needs an organized area of convection to be classified as a cyclone. The most important part is already there, a well-defined LLC.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#6 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:11 pm

Looks very much like a developing TC. What do the models forecast?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#7 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:52 pm

I posted this on another forum....from this closeup loop you can see that the tail end of this LLC tap into some moisture from the ITZC and brought it up into the COC. Look to the top of the page.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:10 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.


10:30 PM TWO for this low.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#9 Postby WindRunner » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:24 pm

ROCK wrote:I posted this on another forum....from this closeup loop you can see that the tail end of this LLC tap into some moisture from the ITZC and brought it up into the COC. Look to the top of the page.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


Once I looked all the way up at the top I finally saw it. If you know where you're looking, that's a very good loop to show the LLC and the convective burst.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5200
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#10 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:40 pm

this is looking pretty good to me now! Looks like the 2 areas have consolidated into one. This SHOULD be our next depression soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#11 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:41 pm

I really can't believe that discussion given how well it looks.
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#12 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:49 pm

Latest TRMM rain-rate product indicates that showers aren't terribly widespread (SEE HERE), and neither does AMSU imagery (SEE HERE).

AMSU precipitable water imagery indicates that there's quite a bit of dry air north of 15N, though south of that latitude is better (see HERE). SAR imagery from UWisc indicates that this cyclone-inhibitor shouldn't be a big problem.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#13 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:01 pm

I think it looks better than Ernesto to tell you the truth (not just a joke but I had to say it).... :P
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#14 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:I really can't believe that discussion given how well it looks.


Yes, there is a big round ball of convection, but this system is a long way from being a TD. The actual low level spin is well to the east of the convection. Also, please don't discount the models. Without fail, all the models show a very S-L-O-W development. I'm guessing that a TD WILL form from this cluster, but not until the weekend.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#15 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:03 am

ABNT20 KNHC 300924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:40 am

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 23N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.
A COUPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
42W-46W.


8 AM Discussion.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#17 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:29 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#18 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:50 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302058
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#19 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:This system only needs an organized area of convection to be classified as a cyclone. The most important part is already there, a well-defined LLC.


Looks like it might be getting it as we type. Good little ball of convection blowing up over the center the past few frames. No doubt there's a well-defined LLC there, either.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#20 Postby Bgator » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:11 pm

Dr. MAsters made a good point in his blogs, though right now SAL is not allowing for any convection, once it reaches the PR/Bahamas area, which it should it will be in a much better enviroment for convection flare ups, and it already has a LLC, so it is something to watch, many storms form over the bahamas, and if it formed near PR it would have a lot of time..
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Killjoy12 and 83 guests