let this be a lesson....

[hurricanedude]

when the next invest pops up and the models runs come pouring in.....to not take them seriously until a center has formed.....i guarantee....if the next invest model runs show it moving into the caribean..everyone will be screaming NO or TX....and the other half...well...will be yelling florida, let ernesto remind you all.....a tropical system can do....what it wants....everthing that could go wrong with ernestos track and intensity forecast did just that...went wrong.....when the next system forms...lets watch and take it hour by hour...not 5 days out. I was very disappointed in many of our members treating fellow members the way they did...and i hope the next storm you folks..and you know the ones im talking about....act sensibly!

[Zardoz]

Good advice certainly, but as a newbie around here, let me say that I've dropped by many Internet forums, and I've seen precious few where the members are as mannerly, reasonable, and respectful as they are on this one.

There's very little kid stuff here, thankfully.

[Wx_Warrior]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance.

[ROCK]

The METS on here, did a great job keeping us informed during the insanity with Ernie's track. They should be commended as we all know they have day jobs and don't have to share their expertise. Also like to add that there is no reason that I can see to call a MET out if their particular forecast is off. I saw that numerous times on here the past week and I hope that will stop. Just my two cents.

[GeneratorPower]

Man, that was a good post. I have had to force myself to remember that lesson the past week or so. I was sitting on this board on Thursday last week listening to Derek Ortt and wxman57, the Pro-Mets, talk about how Florida was out of the picture for Ernesto and it was a Texas or maybe west Louisiana threat.

Even the best meteorologists at the NHC were wrong on this one, too. We were all made fools of. So next time I won't believe anyone who says they know where this is going, even if they are just implying it.

[GeneratorPower]

Rock, and everyone, I'm not calling them out. Their time is appreciated. But the facts are that the Five-Day cone was a bust for everyone on Thursday last week and that fact should remind us to keep on our toes.

[bayoubebe]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance.

I guess you missed all the Floridians -removed-?

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

Hurricanes are exciting to watch, not so fun being hit by them.

I do thank GOD and have been praying and will continue to pray for a safe hurricane season.

[StormWarning1]

when the next invest pops up and the models runs come pouring in.....to not take them seriously until a center has formed.....i guarantee....if the next invest model runs show it moving into the caribean..everyone will be screaming NO or TX....and the other half...well...will be yelling florida, let ernesto remind you all.....a tropical system can do....what it wants....everthing that could go wrong with ernestos track and intensity forecast did just that...went wrong.....when the next system forms...lets watch and take it hour by hour...not 5 days out. I was very disappointed in many of our members treating fellow members the way they did...and i hope the next storm you folks..and you know the ones im talking about....act sensibly!

Not really, there is nothing wrong with trying to analyze where a devloping system is going to track and what its intensity will be 5 or even 7 days up the road.
Tropical systems don't do what they want. No need to go any farther with this.
All that happened with Ernesto is everybody missed the ULL that formed over the bahamas and its influenece over both track and intensity.

[bayoubebe]

Man, that was a good post. I have had to force myself to remember that lesson the past week or so. I was sitting on this board on Thursday last week listening to Derek Ortt and wxman57, the Pro-Mets, talk about how Florida was out of the picture for Ernesto and it was a Texas or maybe west Louisiana threat.

Even the best meteorologists at the NHC were wrong on this one, too. We were all made fools of. So next time I won't believe anyone who says they know where this is going, even if they are just implying it.

In their defense this was a very tough hurricane to call.

Some of you seem to want to put the pro mets in an impossibile situation.

You want to push them for their opinions and thoughts on every little thing, then when they do, if they are proven wrong, some seem to get sick pleasure out of it.

Give them a break. Ernesto was a crazy little storm with a mind of its own.

[ROCK]

Rock, and everyone, I'm not calling them out. Their time is appreciated. But the facts are that the Five-Day cone was a bust for everyone on Thursday last week and that fact should remind us to keep on our toes.

I agree GP.....not an easy storm to track since it never had time to get going. Weak TS are probably the hardest to forecast given that they tend reform there center, highly suseptible to shear etc etc.

[Wx_Warrior]

I dont predict storms nor do I guess where they are going and WILL NOT do so. I am not trained to do so, my brother (KFDM MET) yes, me no. I know what it feels like to get hammered (RITA).

Yes, very thankful nothing worse has come about but flooding is awful.

[jlauderdal]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance.

I guess you missed all the Floridians -removed-?

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

Hurricanes are exciting to watch, not so fun being hit by them.

I do thank GOD and have been praying and will continue to pray for a safe hurricane season.

floridians dont need to wishcast jack, they come here against all odds as was proven by ernesto and now we are in florida time sept-oct.

[VeniceInlet]

Man, that was a good post. I have had to force myself to remember that lesson the past week or so. I was sitting on this board on Thursday last week listening to Derek Ortt and wxman57, the Pro-Mets, talk about how Florida was out of the picture for Ernesto and it was a Texas or maybe west Louisiana threat.

Even the best meteorologists at the NHC were wrong on this one, too. We were all made fools of. So next time I won't believe anyone who says they know where this is going, even if they are just implying it.

If I've learned anything from being in Florida during the past two insane hurricane seasons, it's that you should never trust anything more than three days out. If I find myself in the sights of a five day track, I thank my lucky stars because I know I won't be in it two days later.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

You won't see any -removed- - Rita was enough!! Personally I would like to see Ernie be the only named storm for the rest of the season!!!

[VeniceInlet]

If we only knew at this time last year what was yet in store. We were only up to "K" and we thought that was more than enough. Hope the rest of 2006 is a dud.

[curtadams]

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

The proportion of people I disagree with for any spot seems roughly proportional to the number of coastal residents who haven't seen a major hurricane recently. Lots in TX and FL - some in NC/SC, and pretty few in MS/AL/LA. Most seem to be teenage boys - and I understand the thrillseeking aspect of that age. I wouldn't mind an occasional one, it's just that there's so MUCH. It gets tiresome. I notice some "worrycasters" from the affected regions but not many and of course that's very understandable.

Actually, the people I disagree with from FL seem mostly disappointed or even upset they didn't get a major hurricane. It's pretty understandable - most people don't seem to fear hurricanes much until they experience them. My cousins were in Mobile for Frederic. They weren't too concerned, and were set up for a kind of family hurricane party with candles and activities. After Frederic - I can't do their descriptions justice - my aunt goes well inland any time there's a hurricane ANYWHERE in the Gulf. And he was "only" a 3, and Mobile's not right on the ocean.

[fci]

Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance.

I guess you missed all the Floridians -removed-?

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

Hurricanes are exciting to watch, not so fun being hit by them.

I do thank GOD and have been praying and will continue to pray for a safe hurricane season.

Well, you apparently have a technique to "selectively read" posts.
There is just as much, if not more; -removed- by the Texas group as the Florida group.
And the LA group has calmed it down from prior years since they were tragically savaged by Katrina last year.
And those in NC/SC and VA do their share.

For my money, those along the GOM seem the loudest as it seems like EVERY storm is said to be a "GOM'er"!!!

See how ridiculous I sound???

That's because most S2K'ers enjoy the chase of the storms and the adrenaline rush of thinking that "this storm or Invest" will be theirs.
Not that they want it. But they want the chase that inevitably ends up not coming to them. And they are thankful that it does not come to them.

-removed- is a by product of following the Tropics.
If every storm were a fish only a few would follow them.
If every storm went to the GOM only those on the GOM would follow them, except for the few who truly just want to watch and follow them.
And so on and so forth

Morale of the story???
PLEASE STOP ACCUSING MEMBERS OF -removed-!!!!

Everyone does it in some manner so please stop accusing any select group of doing it as it is not exclusive to any specific group.

(climbing off of soapbox)

[MBismyPlayground]

I agree with Hurricane dude and several others on here and their opinions. Our Pro Mets here are the very bestest!! But... lets not forget the MODS and the wonderful job they are doing, trying to police ALL of this and still try and stay informed.
As for predicting where a cane will go when it is so far out, I think I would do better with my magic 8ball.

[crazycajuncane]

I told everyone on Friday to wait until Monday before getting their panties in a twist.... Look at how much the track changed over the weekend! I wasn't the least bit surprised on Sunday when the track shifted east, but for it to shift all the way to another side of the gulf was crazy.

And I wish for one that people wouldn't hype up stuff so much. It's bad enough the media hypes it up and we got people on here calling for a Cat. 3 to hit Florida after it's shown to be weakening in Cuba.... oh no, but last year.... hey guys it's a totally different year. Last year was something we may not see for a long time.... Any and everything developed and everything seemed to blow up in a few hours.

There is a lot that goes into forecasting a storm, not just what history says. We're several years from even getting a forecast down 4 days out, much less 5.

Ernesto proved many people wrong. Just like Chris. So many people were confident Chris was going to beat the odds and come out as a Cat. 3... yeah we get it already.

The best thing to do is to relax. Don't get caught up in all the hype. I know it's hard for some, but in the end.... what was it all worth? Now if I woke up tomorrow and there was a Cat. 3 in the middle of the gulf... I'd be going nuts, but some of you freak out over a Tropical Storm.... relax!

Everyone enjoy the rest of the week and be ready for whats to come. Things may get interesting, but don't get worn out before then.

[jinftl]

agree with you on the 'hype' factor, but in all fairness, the National Hurricane was calling for Ernesto to possibly become Cat 2 or 3 hurricane when approaching florida as late as the Monday morning advisory....when the storm was a tropical storm over land:

THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

i am totally with you on the hype problem, but when you read something from the NHC, it might skew you towards hyping, even when the storm is not a hurricane yet....in other words, people kept buying into that statement, even though it is almost 48 hours old...but that is a pretty powerful statement for the NHC to write, hence the willingness to believe it.