Tropical Storm Kristy in EPAC

[Cyclenall]

We have a new invest in the Epac. This one looks heathly so far.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if it develops into a cyclone!

[bombarderoazul]

What's the next name after John?

[cycloneye]

What's the next name after John?

Kristy

[CrazyC83]

We are already on the back side of the Pacific season now...hard to believe!

[Scorpion]

This is ridiculous....K to E. EPAC killing us.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 291002
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM JOHN...CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...OR ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF TROPICAL STORM
JOHN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA ARE CENTERED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JOHN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[cycloneye]

KNHC 292230
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE JOHN...CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Cyclenall]

The NHC thinks it could become a Tropical Depression tonight, which is not a surprise since this system has looked very organized all day.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

30/0000 UTC 16.4N 114.2W T2.0/2.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean


Don't know why its not now?

[Cyclenall]

30/0000 UTC 16.4N 114.2W T2.0/2.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean


Don't know why its not now?

Exactly. I'm not sure how long this invest has already been one. Is everything there to meet a TD standard? If so, it should be one by 5:00 am EST.

EDIT: It's now a tropical depression on the NRL. It's hidden though, just click on "all" at the top of the page.

[Aslkahuna]

NHC has issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression TD12E.

Steve

[Cyclenall]

NHC has issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression TD12E.

Steve

Really? It's not even a treat to land at they are starting discussions. I don't remember this happening. It's nice to see them starting right away anyways.

[Aslkahuna]

Yes it's no threat to land but NHC puts the forecast advisories out for ALL EPAC storms regardless. I use Advisory in the old context that learned from using the JTWC products when I was in Asia.

Steve

[bostonseminole]

30/0600 UTC 16.3N 114.5W T2.5/2.5 12E

[Cyclenall]

Yes it's no threat to land but NHC puts the forecast advisories out for ALL EPAC storms regardless. I use Advisory in the old context that learned from using the JTWC products when I was in Asia.

Steve

No, I was talking about the time they put out the advisories and discussions, it was a special one meaning off the 6 hour mark?

[Cyclenall]

Can someone please change the thread title? This is now Tropical Storm Kristy according to the NRL. It's still 25 knots so I don't know how that's possible but oh well.

First % chance of Tropical Storm Kristy becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 96% (It should be one right now based off the NRL)
Hurricane: 25%
Category 2 Hurricane: 10%
Category 3 Hurricane: 2%
Category 4 Hurricane: 0.3%
Category 5 Hurricane: Almost 0%

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is your thread. You can change it!

[Cyclenall]

This is your thread. You can change it!

Oh yeah, I forgot about that!

When the NHC confirms that this has become a tropical storm, mods can you change the title? If it has not become a TS by the NHC, then change my title back to a TD title. Thanks!

[clfenwi]

NHC guidance suite has it as Kristy...

WHXX01 KMIA 300703
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY (EP122006) ON 20060830 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060830 0600 060830 1800 060831 0600 060831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 114.5W 17.1N 115.9W 17.9N 117.5W 18.7N 119.4W
BAMM 16.3N 114.5W 17.1N 115.9W 17.7N 117.4W 18.4N 119.3W
LBAR 16.3N 114.5W 17.2N 115.6W 18.3N 116.9W 19.6N 118.7W
SHIP 35KTS 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS
DSHP 35KTS 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060901 0600 060902 0600 060903 0600 060904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 121.3W 21.1N 125.2W 22.7N 128.6W 24.1N 131.8W
BAMM 19.1N 121.1W 20.2N 124.9W 21.0N 128.4W 21.4N 132.0W
LBAR 20.9N 120.6W 23.8N 124.0W 27.0N 125.8W 30.0N 124.9W
SHIP 71KTS 68KTS 60KTS 51KTS
DSHP 71KTS 68KTS 60KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 114.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 113.5W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 112.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 20NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM