Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
Saharan Air Layer not as much of a factor right now. This system has as much potential as any other wave that is out there during Hurricane Season.

GFS spins something up around the 31st.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... urrent.png

As does FSUMM5
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 12/12.html

[cycloneye]

762
ABNT20 KNHC 292103
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLAND. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM..IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[skysummit]

Yup...it looks like this train has two engines pulling it!

[HURAKAN]

If we could combine both disturbances then we could have a system. One disturbance lacks what the other has.

[dwg71]

They dont sound too bullish on either system...

[ROCK]

Nice up close and personal view of this wave. I do see turning within it. Also notice the wave (that had no covection earlier) to its north fired off some convection right over the COC.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[ConvergenceZone]

They dont sound too bullish on either system...

Personally I don't care if the models are bullish or not, they've been wrong so many times, but being that it's September, they should be bullish, because if nothing forms now, when will it? I'm just sick and tired of sloppy frustrating storms like Ernesto/Debbie and Chris...

[curtadams]

Both those areas have a little convergence-divergence going on. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. THIS NEW POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE LOW-MID
CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES. IN ADDITION...GFS HAS A WAVE
LIKE FEATURE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS WAVE WAS MORE
CHALLENGING TO LOCATE YESTERDAY AS IT WAS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON
TROUGH...NOW IT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING ITSELF AND BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SPREAD OUT ALONG
THE WAVE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 21W-36W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[Hyperstorm]

Watch the vortex near 12N 29W. Should it blow up during the nocturnal maxima, we could have imminent development.

August 29...

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased in the wave axis and there is a hint of turning.If it persists tonight invest 98L may be up tommorow.

[tgenius]

Are there Dvorak readings for that wave yet?

[rnbaida]

could it develop?

[cycloneye]

Are there Dvorak readings for that wave yet?

Not yet.

[tgenius]

Are there Dvorak readings for that wave yet?

Not yet.

Luis..what does it typically take to get DVorak readings? Is there a minimum criteria?

[Buck]

could it develop?

It's most definitely something that we need to keep our eyes on.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

tgenius at link above you will find the whole explanation about how this dvorak thing works.

[curtadams]

They dont sound too bullish on either system...

Personally I don't care if the models are bullish or not, they've been wrong so many times, but being that it's September, they should be bullish, because if nothing forms now, when will it? I'm just sick and tired of sloppy frustrating storms like Ernesto/Debbie and Chris...

Love this year - it's great. Lots of potential storms to look at, lots of interesting analysis to determine what they are and what they're doing. Not many deaths and not much property damage. Sounds perfect to me. Let's hear it for the marginal tropical storms!

If you just *have* to have big majors to get thrilled, we've already had Daniel, a beautiful long-tracking annular storm. Ioke, possibly the most intense storm in Central Pacific history, is currently plowing towards (evacuated) Wake island. John has just become a popup major. Long-trackers, annulars, surprise majors -what's not to like?

[calculatedrisk]

Here is the Meteosat-8 view:

[jhamps10]

i don't think that they do divorak until we have an invest.