Tropical Trouble for Mid September...GFS

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif

500 pattern below...Ugly for Gulf it this is true

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_384l.gif

[boca]

Funny I just posted that KFDM in another thread.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Man that 500 pattern looks just like last year for mid to late September.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Check out the one behind it though. That's trouble for the Western Gulf it this were to hold up.

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks for the REMINDER!

[crazycajuncane]

Not worried until I see something.

[Wx_Warrior]

Wish for fronts, wish for fronts, wish for fronts....hope models wrong, hope models wrong!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Heard that!!

[Johnny]

The Western Gulf? Boy if I had a dollar for evertime I have heard that this year.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

KFDM your sending out bad vibes, don't want to do the Rita thing again!!! But I am watching that second wave( the 4th, 5th and 6th also).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Way too early to tell. One general rule of thumb to keep in mind is that the first several tracks, are usually not the ones the storms (especially when they haven't even developed yet) eventually follow. Another thing I've noticed thus far this season, there has been a trend in the models of having the storms make landfall/track much further West than they have. Ernesto and Debby are two prime examples of said trend. As such if the models are saying Western Gulf 14+ out, I'd keeping my eyes on Florida/East Coast, or even out to Sea.

With the above stated. I guess we'll all see, soon enough.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Careful reading into that too much -- 384 hours is 16 days from now...

[SETXweatherwatcher]

I'm kinda new to this, but no GOM storms would be fine with me. Not wishing anything bad for the rest of the coastal areas. I have my plan if I need it, though. The way I understand it, it depends on what ULH or ULL are in place as the storm approaches the Caribbean and GOM as to what the track will be. And 16 days is enough time for all that to change from what is in place right now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

KFDM your sending out bad vibes, don't want to do the Rita thing again!!! But I am watching that second wave( the 4th, 5th and 6th also).

Those will be the ones to watch. 2nd and so on. I'm just looking at the pattern for September.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Most long range data is showing a different pattern for mid September.

[jhamps10]

yeah, that is true, I've been enjoying lowering gas prices because of lack of hurricanes in the oil fields of the GOM. Besides you guys have gone through too much for 2 years of 'canes. I think it's time for the east coast (no offense ec s2k'ers) but keep them out of the gom.

[Portastorm]

Actually Texas' populated areas have not experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1983. We are long, long overdue.

Last year Rita technically made landfall in the far southwestern corner of Louisiana but left severe damage in far east and southeast Texas. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Kenedy County and killed some cows and that was it. There have been several Cat-1s and borderline 2s ... but not a MAJOR since Alicia in 83.

[jhamps10]

Kfdm, what is your opinion on the waves we have out there right now in the central atlantic, about half-way between the cape verdes and the lesser antellies? Could one of these become our next t.d.?

[WeatherEmperor]

Most long range data is showing a different pattern for mid September.

what different pattern for mid-september are you talking about?

<RICKY>

[jusforsean]

is the model still showing an east coast hit in a few days??? Scary thought! I think I will leave my preperations in place:) Till November!!