Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Stormtrack03]

356
URNT12 KNHC 291729
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/16:39:00Z
B. 23 deg 39 min N
079 deg 21 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 410 deg 039 nm
F. 138 deg 049 kt
G. 040 deg 037 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 397 m
J. 23 C/ 398 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 39 / 32N
LARGE 12 NM LGT/VAR WND CTR
;

[Thunder44]

[Bgator]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URNT12 KNHC 291729
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/16:39:00Z
B. 23 deg 39 min N
079 deg 21 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 410 deg 039 nm
F. 138 deg 049 kt
G. 040 deg 037 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 397 m
J. 23 C/ 398 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 39 / 32N
LARGE 12 NM LGT/VAR WND CTR

[Bgator]

What does the max temperature symbolize?

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 291732
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 34 KNHC
1722. 2303N 07926W 00398 5012 221 012 236 220 013 00398 0000000000
1723 2304N 07927W 00398 5012 215 011 232 232 012 00397 0000000000
1723. 2305N 07928W 00398 5013 216 011 232 232 011 00397 0000000000
1724 2306N 07930W 00398 5013 223 010 232 232 010 00397 0000000000
1724. 2307N 07931W 00398 5014 228 009 232 232 010 00395 0000000000
1725 2308N 07932W 00400 5014 221 010 236 228 011 00397 0000000000
1725. 2310N 07933W 00399 5014 219 010 236 224 011 00396 0000000000
1726 2311N 07934W 00396 5014 227 011 232 232 011 00394 0000000000
1726. 2312N 07936W 00400 5014 229 010 232 232 010 00397 0000000000
1727 2313N 07937W 00398 5014 227 009 234 230 009 00395 0000000000
1727. 2314N 07938W 00397 5015 227 009 236 230 009 00393 0000000000
1728 2315N 07939W 00399 5015 234 009 234 234 009 00395 0000000000
1728. 2316N 07940W 00398 5015 236 010 232 232 010 00394 0000000000
1729 2317N 07942W 00397 5016 244 010 234 234 010 00393 0000000000
1729. 2318N 07943W 00398 5016 250 009 230 230 009 00394 0000000000
1730 2319N 07944W 00399 5015 249 009 230 230 009 00395 0000000000
1730. 2321N 07945W 00397 5015 259 008 232 232 009 00393 0000000000
1731 2322N 07945W 00399 5016 259 008 232 232 008 00394 0000000000
1731. 2324N 07946W 00397 5017 265 009 236 226 010 00391 0000000000
1732 2325N 07946W 00399 5018 267 009 232 232 009 00392 0000000000

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND/OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Evil Jeremy]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. 45 kt

Strengthing!!!

[Bgator]

Waht does D stand for?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Waht does D stand for?

It's just a visual estimate, don't take it too seriously:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.txt

The flight meteorologist looks at the sea surface and can estimate how strong the winds are by what the sea looks like. At particular wind speeds, the sea begins to form white caps, then patches of foam, then some of the foam patches begin to appear green, etc. The key word here is "observed"; the meteorologist may not see the highest surface winds because of darkness, heavy rain or clouds, so often this number is lower than the maximum flight level wind.

[Thunder44]

AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 35 KNHC

1732. 2327N 07947W 00400 5019 244 009 230 230 009 00393 0000000000

1733 2328N 07947W 00398 5019 253 008 230 230 009 00391 0000000000

1733. 2330N 07948W 00394 5021 276 009 232 232 009 00385 0000000000

1734 2331N 07948W 00402 5021 274 010 234 226 011 00392 0000000000

1734. 2333N 07948W 00396 5023 271 010 232 232 011 00384 0000000000

1735 2334N 07948W 00399 5024 261 011 230 230 011 00387 0000000000

1735. 2336N 07948W 00400 5024 258 011 230 230 011 00387 0000000000

1736 2337N 07948W 00396 5026 266 011 234 228 012 00381 0000000000

1736. 2339N 07947W 00399 5027 255 008 230 230 009 00384 0000000000

1737 2340N 07947W 00398 5027 242 008 230 230 009 00382 0000000000

1737. 2342N 07948W 00398 5028 231 008 230 230 009 00382 0000000000

1738 2344N 07948W 00398 5029 213 009 230 230 010 00381 0000000000

1738. 2345N 07948W 00398 5030 206 012 216 216 013 00379 0000000000

1739 2347N 07948W 00400 5029 210 012 224 224 013 00382 0000000000

1739. 2348N 07950W 00396 5031 213 011 228 228 011 00377 0000000000

1740 2349N 07951W 00398 5032 216 011 230 230 011 00378 0000000000

1740. 2349N 07953W 00398 5033 226 007 226 226 009 00377 0000000000

1741 2350N 07954W 00398 5033 234 006 224 224 006 00376 0000000000

1741. 2351N 07955W 00397 5034 270 008 230 230 009 00374 0000000000

1742 2352N 07957W 00398 5036 300 011 228 228 012 00374 0000000000

[Bgator]

You say take it lightly but they said that this is usually lower than what the winds actually are...

[Thunder44]

2pm NHC position included.

[otowntiger]

Wow! I don't get it. The satellite image keeps improving but the winds are minimal and the pressure rises 3 millibars? Amazing. This is one odd little storm. (emphasis on little and also weak- so far not at all deserving of the hype.)

[x-y-no]

H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 397 m
J. 23 C/ 398 m

Well, that's pretty pathetic.

Strange, though. It's looking better on sattelite, and looknig pretty decent on long range radar. Hard to say why there would be an absolutelyl flat temperature profile like that.

[Thunder44]

768
URNT12 KNHC 291756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/17:42:50Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
079 deg 55 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 15 kt
E. 150 deg 062 nm
F. 213 deg 014 kt
G. 150 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 23 C/ 395 m
J. 23 C/ 397 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 150 / 62NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

[WmE]

768
URNT12 KNHC 291756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/17:42:50Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
079 deg 55 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 15 kt
E. 150 deg 062 nm
F. 213 deg 014 kt
G. 150 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 23 C/ 395 m
J. 23 C/ 397 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 150 / 62NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

Pressure dropped 2 mbar. Bad Temp. though.

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 291752
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 36 KNHC
1742. 2353N 07956W 00403 5038 295 007 224 224 009 00377 0000000000
1743 2355N 07956W 00394 5041 271 003 224 224 005 00364 0000000000
1743. 2356N 07955W 00400 5042 150 011 232 232 018 00370 0000000000
1744 2357N 07954W 00398 5038 136 018 228 228 021 00371 0000000000
1744. 2359N 07955W 00398 5038 121 016 228 228 018 00372 0000000000
1745 2400N 07956W 00397 5037 121 014 230 230 014 00372 0000000000
1745. 2401N 07958W 00398 5036 125 011 230 230 013 00374 0000000000
1746 2402N 07959W 00400 5036 129 009 232 232 009 00375 0000000000
1746. 2403N 08000W 00397 5038 117 010 234 234 012 00371 0000000000
1747 2405N 08001W 00397 5038 112 012 230 230 012 00371 0000000000
1747. 2406N 08003W 00399 5038 110 014 230 230 015 00372 0000000000
1748 2407N 08004W 00399 5039 101 016 232 232 017 00371 0000000000
1748. 2408N 08005W 00397 5039 094 020 232 232 020 00370 0000000000
1749 2409N 08007W 00399 5038 089 021 234 234 022 00373 0000000000
1749. 2410N 08008W 00396 5035 071 020 226 226 022 00372 0000000000
1750 2411N 08009W 00398 5035 050 025 204 204 029 00374 0000000100
1750. 2413N 08010W 00402 5034 057 029 198 198 030 00379 0000000100
1751 2414N 08012W 00395 5031 049 030 222 222 030 00375 0000000000
1751. 2415N 08013W 00400 5029 052 024 216 216 025 00382 0000000000
1752 2416N 08014W 00397 5028 040 023 224 224 024 00381 0000000000
NNNN

[Thunder44]

This is very strange the last fixes where far apart in about a hour and NHC positions are off from the recon fixes.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wow! I don't get it. The satellite image keeps improving but the winds are minimal and the pressure rises 3 millibars? Amazing. This is one odd little storm. (emphasis on little and also weak- so far not at all deserving of the hype.)

The hype is based on the storm's potential, given the very circumstances you find so interesting and odd. It would be hype if there was no justification for concern, though if it does not strengthen I expect lots of Monday morning quarterbacking on here directed at NHC