What's the range of intensities Orlando could likely see?

[anjou]

I know there are a lot of variables but am wondering your reasonable worst case Orlando's likely to see out of Ernesto? Thanks.

[Scorpion]

Perhaps 30 mph gusts.

[NFLnut]

More like 40-50 gusts, based on CURRENT predictions.

[Incident_MET]

NFL nut. That is a good estimate.

[acidus]

35 to 40 mid morning
40 to 50 in the afternoon
45 to 55 in the evening

...according to the current forecast:

http://580wdbo.com/weather/

[wxman57]

NFL nut. That is a good estimate.

I agree. Just about any squall can produce a 40-50 mph wind gust. But when the center of Ernesto passes, its max sustained wind inland will be 20-30 mph. Any wind of 35 mph or greater will be out over the water in squalls well east of the center.

[EmeraldCoast1]

What is the threshold (in mph) for closing the major theme parks, i.e. Disney, Universal and Sea World?

[skysummit]

In Orlando, I don't think it would be much more than the regular afternoon thunderstorms that you all are used to...it'll just last longer. Probably 35 - 45mph, but only in a few gusts. I agree with wxman57. Pretty much anything over 35mph will be over the water and in a few squalls.

[otowntiger]

What is the threshold (in mph) for closing the major theme parks, i.e. Disney, Universal and Sea World?

I'm not sure what their official criteria would be, but remember they closed the parks a little early just a few hours before Charley came through at about 9:00 at night and amazingly they were open the very next morning right on time. I suspect they will not change anything based on the arrival of this storm, because the conditions here aren't excpected to be any worse than a typical afternoon thunderstorm.

[otowntiger]

35 to 40 mid morning
40 to 50 in the afternoon
45 to 55 in the evening

...according to the current forecast:

http://580wdbo.com/weather/

It surpises me that they would think we would get that kind of wind from a tropical storm that will have over 200 miles of land to traverse before it gets here. I think they incorrectly base it on the fact that the NHC doesn't weaken the storm all that much because they expect the strongest sustained winds to be offshore. The 50 mph forecast for winds when the storm is in this vicinity is for what will be out in the water, not inland, so I'd be real surprised if we get anything more than 25-30mph in a squall or two.

[Incident_MET]

otown tiger/skysummit I think you are underestimating the winds in this situation. Remember that this storm will be moving into an area of S Fl that has not shown rapid weakening of storms (everglades) with 50 mph central winds and the core moving over the central FL area. I wouldnt be surprised to see sustained 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts over 50 in the afternoon Wednesday in Orlando.

[Furious George]

According to this, you have about a 63% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds and 4% chance of hurricane force winds. If this is just computer genarated, I wouldn't put a whole lot ot faith in it. But if the NHC didn't think it was at least somewhat plausable, why would they publish it?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml

[otowntiger]

otown tiger/skysummit I think you are underestimating the winds in this situation. Remember that this storm will be moving into an area of S Fl that has not shown rapid weakening of storms (everglades) with 50 mph central winds and the core moving over the central FL area. I wouldnt be surprised to see sustained 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts over 50 in the afternoon Wednesday in Orlando.

Thanks Incident Met. I appreciate all the professionals such as yourself on this board taking your time to keep us informed. I may be underestimating the winds a bit, but I'm sure if this storm doesn't strengthen any more than it is right now than I really don't think we'll get much of anything other than some much needed rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In Gabrielle, which was a 75mph storm at landfall, Orlando saw 45-55mph gusts during the peak. With Ernesto it looks to be a weaker storm and it will spend much more time over land. OIA will probably only pick up top gusts in the lower 40s from Ernesto (similar to what they got during the far outer bands of Dennis). Not much to worry about really (unless Ernesto rapidly strengthens). It will be similar to a normal Orlando T-storm...just lasting longer.