Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[cycloneye]

[ConvergenceZone]

luis, what's your opinion on the direction of this wave?

[cinlfla]

I was just going to ask that ?.....I can't wait till they make this an invest and put out the first model runs for it

[Extremeweatherguy]

this one looks impressive!

The question now will be...how long does it take to develop? If it can't get going before 50W, then it may make it into the Caribbean, and if it does get going before 50W, then it will likely be a fish or east coast storm.

Fish storms are fun as long as they develop well(unlike boring Debbie).

From birth to buzzsaw yep, that's what I want to see....

Debby may have played a role in clearing a lot of the Saharan dust...

Yea, that's a good point. The SAL is extremely dimished compared to what it was earlier. Perhaps that's why this wave has got it going so quickly. This is the first wave where convection has blown up THIS quick.
I don't want to say too much though, as we'll have to see if it will sustain itself.

yes, persistance is the key. As we have seen many times this year, these waves can seem to go "poof" at the blink of an eye.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I would be very surprised if the NHC does not mention the system shortly on their TWO...

[calculatedrisk]

As we have seen many times this year, these waves can seem to go "poof" at the blink of an eye.

Yes, but most of the waves went "poof" between 20W and 30W. This wave is getting stronger at 30W.

On page 2, I posted a Sat image of the then future Ernesto at about 40W - it was just starting to reappear. That wave was fairly impressive when it exited Africa, and then mostly disappeared (or was buried in the ITCZ) until 40W.

This wave seems much more impressive.

[ConvergenceZone]

As we have seen many times this year, these waves can seem to go "poof" at the blink of an eye.

Yes, but most of the waves went "poof" between 20W and 30W. This wave is getting stronger at 30W.

On page 2, I posted a Sat image of the then future Ernesto at about 40W - it was just starting to reappear. That wave was fairly impressive when it exited Africa, and then mostly disappeared (or was buried in the ITCZ) until 40W.

This wave seems much more impressive.

Yea, that's a good point, and this has come along way just since today.

[ROCK]

and more aggressive means more lat in the short term if that ridge is not firmly in place. Good post EWG....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look at the steering flow over the next 2 days:

Initial - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml
Ridge to the north should keep it on a westward path for tonight.

24 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
Wave should continue west.

48 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
Wave signiture looks to be right east of the leeward islands and the ridge should continue to push this west.

Based on this I think a rapid motion W or WNW should be the case over the next 48 hrs. Beyond 48 hrs. it should slow down with a less certain path. I will be watching this one for sure..

Thanx Extreme for posting these...What name is after Florence by the way?

After Florence will be Gordon.

[Scorpion]

Wow this wave is looking great. Time to turn our attention east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

As we have seen many times this year, these waves can seem to go "poof" at the blink of an eye.

Yes, but most of the waves went "poof" between 20W and 30W. This wave is getting stronger at 30W.

On page 2, I posted a Sat image of the then future Ernesto at about 40W - it was just starting to reappear. That wave was fairly impressive when it exited Africa, and then mostly disappeared (or was buried in the ITCZ) until 40W.

This wave seems much more impressive.

oh, and I completely agree. I just do not want to get overly exited in this one just to watch it fall apart like Chris and to some extent Ernesto (as well as the countless invests). I am trying to learn by the many lessons of 2006. If this can hold it's own for the next 12-24 hrs. though, then I agree..the will be GAME ON! IMO, I think this has a pretty good chance of becoming Florence at some point in it's life.

[ConvergenceZone]

guys, what's that feature just above this wave(to the north northwest) ? Will that feature shear the storm or keep it moving westward? What type of impact do you think that will have? I haven't looked at the maps yet, as my computer's having ab it of a problem right now...Just look at the satellite luis posted or the link below.... There's obviously a feature just to the northwest of the wave...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[emeraldislencguy]

this is one of the most impressive ones of the year--an invest should be up in 24 hours

[gatorcane]

yep great looking wave all you long trackers may have one here....

[Scorpion]

I really hope this is mentioned in the 10:30 TWO.

[bostonseminole]

looks good

[sma10]

guys, what's that feature just above this wave(to the north northwest) ? Will that feature shear the storm or keep it moving westward? What type of impact do you think that will have? I haven't looked at the maps yet, as my computer's having ab it of a problem right now...Just look at the satellite luis posted or the link below.... There's obviously a feature just to the northwest of the wave...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

That's a surface low that has been tracked all the way from the African coast. It's embedded in very dry air and has no hope of developing in the short term. I guess development would be possible further west in a more moist environment if it can attain some convection, but this scenario does not have any model support.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

[gatorcane]

NHC not gunhoe on it at all...

amazing..

[jhamps10]

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

I'm sorry, but this thing is developing very strong convection some grays on the IR sat. I do not agree with NHC, I think that this will develop a little bit faster than they think. Just look at it over this evening, That's all I got to say on this one.