threat to carolinas

UpTheCreek · #41 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:32 pm

brunota2003 wrote:you almost are literally up the creek from me, except its a river...nice name choice We are prepared (excluding a few things)...ready for the worst, hoping for the best...

We're on Brice's Creek off the Trent actually.....hence the name. We have a long way to go on this storm and it's been pretty hard to forecast thus far. But like you, hoping for the best! I think we're prepared except fuel for the generator. Mainly worried about surge..... :eek:

SCMedic · #42 Postby **SCMedic** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:36 pm

http://tinyurl.com/nxlyu

You all may want to look at this..Latest GFDL.. Has it coming ashore in McClellanville, SC (of Hugo fame) with 100knt winds...

NCHurricane · #43 Postby **NCHurricane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:12 pm

I hope this forecasted rain event doesn't end up like the one 7 years ago, if it comes to fruition.

Who'd up here called Ernie's name anyway? He was headed west until then. :lol:

Chuck Copeland
NCHurricane.com

NCgreenhead · #44 Postby **NCgreenhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:57 pm

Well another big track jump so the question now is this it---I doubt it. So it went from being 60-75 miles south and east of me as a cane to a weak depression 37 miles west of me. Cant wait to see what the 11:00 track is going to look like but it seems as if a miss might be a little less likely now since the models shifted to the left. Hopefully this thing does not go for in between the last two runs cause that puts me in the bullseye.

It sure looks ugly for fellow Carolinians in SC at this point but you move that track 50-75 miles to the west and well all I can say is hello Ernesto.

SCMedic the GFDL has been pretty good this year, does anyone know how well it has handled Ernesto so far?

SCMedic · #45 Postby **SCMedic** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:06 pm

GFDL is one of the only ones that has been consistant with Ernesto as I understand. It was the only one that had it coming across eastern cuba instead of heading to the gulf..

#46 Postby **ncbird** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:06 pm

Hello UpTheCreek, nice to see you still here. Hello brunota2003 always nice to see more neighbors. I'm in New Bern, so just up the road from you a bit. I am keeping a close eye on this one also, but sent the hubby out for gas for the generator this afternoon. Even if it does do what the lasted track is showing and stays to the west of us, figure we will still get a good rain out of it, and sure enough out will go the power.

NCBird

UpTheCreek · #47 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:27 pm

ncbird wrote:Hello UpTheCreek, nice to see you still here. Hello brunota2003 always nice to see more neighbors. I'm in New Bern, so just up the road from you a bit. I am keeping a close eye on this one also, but sent the hubby out for gas for the generator this afternoon. Even if it does do what the lasted track is showing and stays to the west of us, figure we will still get a good rain out of it, and sure enough out will go the power.

NCBird

Good to see you too, ncbird.....we really need to stop meeting like this!

That's about all we need to do....gasoline. You bet the power will go out, seems to go out over here if you look at it the wrong way! Keep a good watch on this thing, I think it's sneaky! Good luck!

#48 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:28 pm

ncbird wrote:Hello UpTheCreek, nice to see you still here. Hello brunota2003 always nice to see more neighbors. I'm in New Bern, so just up the road from you a bit. I am keeping a close eye on this one also, but sent the hubby out for gas for the generator this afternoon. Even if it does do what the lasted track is showing and stays to the west of us, figure we will still get a good rain out of it, and sure enough out will go the power.

NCBird

I will be on the East side of storm and that is the bad of the storm

Sorry I missed up I ment east. I am just NE of Wilm

Bane · #49 Postby **Bane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:47 pm

actually, the eastt side is the worst side.

NCgreenhead · #50 Postby **NCgreenhead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:04 pm

North and east side is traditionally the worst spot to be in a hurricane. On the current track all of eastern NC would be on the east side however landfall is far enough south that it would not be all that bad, I would not expect winds over tropical storm force and then only in gust in greenville and on current track we would be within 35 miles of center. Of course they only have it as a weak cat 1 at landfall a stronger storm and any shift of track east at all would be very very bad news for coastal NC, however all you guys and gals downeast on the sounds should see northeast east winds fill up the creeks pretty quick.

Epsilon_Fan · #51 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:20 pm

I'm in Charleston right now... as long as he stays at Charley-level or under I will be alright. I don't want any big ones however anytime soon... especially since Charleston floods with a damn rainshower

Marilyn · #52 Postby **Marilyn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:24 pm

Hello Everyone haven't posted in awhile, White Oak NC here one of the model shows it at like 79 kts or pressure of 971 right over us. i am not sure what 79 kts are in winds and i have a Garden Wedding in Hendersonville NC this coming weekend to go to. But If we get this I don't want to leave my home. i know i would be better off NW NC But i was leaving a 22 yr old son by himself with the animals to take care of and i am not going to leave him alone during a storm like that... lets pray that it will change paths and go further east out . My question is what is 79 knots??
Thank you, Mar

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Marilyn wrote:Hello Everyone haven't posted in awhile, White Oak NC here one of the model shows it at like 79 kts or pressure of 971 right over us. i am not sure what 79 kts are in winds and i have a Garden Wedding in Hendersonville NC this coming weekend to go to. But If we get this I don't want to leave my home. i know i would be better off NW NC But i was leaving a 22 yr old son by himself with the animals to take care of and i am not going to leave him alone during a storm like that... lets pray that it will change paths and go further east out . My question is what is 79 knots??
Thank you, Mar

79 kt is about 90 mph winds, or a strong Category 1.

Marilyn · #54 Postby **Marilyn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:29 pm

Thank you Brent.. If the path doesn't change i am staying Home..

#55 Postby **Hurritrax** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:32 pm

The track didn't change much from the 5PM to 8PM advisory, so it'll be interesting to see the 11PM info. I wouldn't pay to much attention to the intensity forecasts at this time because of the uncertainty in predicting how much this storm will intensify, but we definitely need to watch this. I haven't had a vacation all summer and was hoping to be at the Outer Banks this weekend enjoying the sun, surf, and suds.....looks like a washout right now for me!

UpTheCreek · #56 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:39 pm

Please folks, I am watching with anxiety as much as anyone........but we're talking at least 3 days out until we have any certainty whatsoever as to the direction of this thing.

I might cancel beach plans, but I would wait on cancelling your weekend, Marilyn, at least for a couple of days if you can.

wolfray · #57 Postby **wolfray** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:41 pm

Being a rabid NC STATE WOLFPACK fan, our first football game of the season is Saturday 6:00 PM in Raleigh. I do NOT want to see another storm like Dennis was. We played U South Carolina in '99 as TS Dennis rained thru. I have never seen it rain so hard at Carter-Finley stadium. There were white out conditions at times and you could hardly see the field of play. Don't remember how many inches Raleigh received that night but it was many........ I continue to hear something about a possible stall of Earnie as it reaches somewhere between the NC/SC and the NC/VA border. Any of you folks hearing the same? That would not be a good situation at all. I remember Floyd all too well...........

#58 Postby **ncbird** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:49 pm

They were just talking about this IPR (Dr. Jeff Masters link on formum... listen in its good) and I herd something earlier today about this possibility.

Ache .... I don't even want to remember Floyd... what a sad mess that was.

MyrtleBeachGal · #59 Postby **MyrtleBeachGal** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:56 pm

According to Dr. Lyons, Ernesto hasn't left Cuba yet and now it's up in the air where the track will take it. :eek:

#60 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:04 pm

Brent wrote:
Marilyn wrote:Hello Everyone haven't posted in awhile, White Oak NC here one of the model shows it at like 79 kts or pressure of 971 right over us. i am not sure what 79 kts are in winds and i have a Garden Wedding in Hendersonville NC this coming weekend to go to. But If we get this I don't want to leave my home. i know i would be better off NW NC But i was leaving a 22 yr old son by himself with the animals to take care of and i am not going to leave him alone during a storm like that... lets pray that it will change paths and go further east out . My question is what is 79 knots??
Thank you, Mar

79 kt is about 90 mph winds, or a strong Category 1.

I believe the formula is wind speed in knots multiplied by 1.15 to get wind speed in MPH.

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