Ernesto starting to take shape

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:12 pm

As we speak the overall structure of Enersto continues to improve. The envelope has expanded. Deeper convection has formed near the center and spotty but more numerous elsewhere. Ernesto is breathing and upon moving off the cuban coast has the opportunity to intensify at a rate that could bring this to Hurricane status in a very short period of time. The overnight hours are and will become very interesting.

Epsilon_Fan · #2 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:17 pm

it looks like it has just crossed the coast... but he does looks bad right now

bombarderoazul · #3 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:20 pm

I think it looks pretty bad, it will look better once it gets over water, but right now he looks more like a depression.

Patrick99 · #4 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:22 pm

I think you're right - and that this is why the NHC has been cautious. They recognize that it has the *potential* to intensify.

28_Storms · #5 Postby **28_Storms** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:24 pm

The storm just looks terrible now.

cheezyWXguy · #6 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:24 pm

Well im listening to the IPR thing with Mike Watkins and Jeff Masters and Mike just said that while we could be looking at a weak storm tomorrow morning, theres a chance that we could be looking at a comletely different Ernesto

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

"completely different?"

cinlfla · #8 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:29 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Well im listening to the IPR thing with Mike Watkins and Jeff Masters and Mike just said that while we could be looking at a weak storm tomorrow morning, theres a chance that we could be looking at a comletely different Ernesto

Yep thats what he said I'm listening now

#9 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:32 pm

I'm going to assume that statement means that while we could have a weaker storm on our hands, there's an equal chance we'll have a stronger storm on our hands....??

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:34 pm

That's why I asked the question :lol:

Waters are in the mid 80's ahead of it.. Maybe it'll rapidly strengthen while approaching Miami and the Keys..

Lifesgud2 · #11 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:54 pm

I beg to differ with you as IMO I dont even think this storm will make it off the cuban coastline. WNW movement continues to put this storm over cuba atleast until 5am tommorow morning. Sure, South Fla will have some rain, but I dont think it will be a very big deal at all. As many of you know it needs to get off the coast, and I dont see that happening.

Thought welcome.

tampastorm · #12 Postby **tampastorm** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:59 pm

On bay news 9, they just said convection is firing up on the north side of Cuba, so who knows.

Damar91 · #13 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:02 pm

I really think he's done now. Just too much to overcome. Next.....

28_Storms · #14 Postby **28_Storms** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:04 pm

Most likely a TD by 11.

Tropics Guy · #15 Postby **Tropics Guy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:09 pm

Don't think so, covection will start wrapping around the COC and we will have a deepening TS by the morning.

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:09 pm

Still has warm water when he gets off Cuba.. too early to ride him off.

marcane_1973 · #17 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:10 pm

Yeah starting to take shape into nuttin but a depression or an open wave.

Damar91 · #18 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:10 pm

I disagree totally. Unless something strange happens. An open wave with rain showers in the morning!

Lifesgud2 · #19 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:43 pm

Tropics Guy wrote:Don't think so, covection will start wrapping around the COC and we will have a deepening TS by the morning.

gtalum · #20 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:44 pm

Half the group thinks it's dead, and the other half see a Category 3 monster. priceless. :lol:

Ernesto starting to take shape

Ernesto starting to take shape

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