Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[calculatedrisk]

Wave at 30W is looking better:

[chris_fit]

Let's see if it goes poof like most others....

[jhamps10]

i doubt it, it looks better than ernesto does. I REALLY expect this to be a TD by the weekend at the latest. Anyone want to disagree?

[calculatedrisk]

OLD SAT IMAGE. NOT REAL TIME. FOR COMPARISON ONLY.

For comparison, here is the wave that became Ernesto at 40W (and Debby coming off the Africa Coast):

[jhamps10]

and this looks better than that ernesto looked at that area. This one really has my attention big-time.

[ConvergenceZone]

hmmm, nice to see future Florence introducing herself

[LAwxrgal]

Well, it is getting close to September....so just about everything that forms has my attention. That said, I think Debby's purpose was to moisten the atmosphere for future waves, and that seems to be getting started now.

[Zardoz]

Well, it is getting close to September....so just about everything that forms has my attention. That said, I think Debby's purpose was to moisten the atmosphere for future waves, and that seems to be getting started now.

That conga line forming across Africa is another attention-getter. Is that unusual, or do you see that now and then?

[Stratosphere747]

The wave further west looks more impressive. Also the GFS develops them both into systems.

Good ol GFS...

[johngaltfla]

Here comes the September CV Train. I think that after the first couple do their thing, the H through K storms could really get interesting...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE 00 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W. THIS WAVE IS NOT VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A MONSOON TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE E
TROPICAL ATLC. HOWEVER BASED UPON HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
BETWEEN 21W-25W. IN ADDITION THE GFS MODEL DOES SHOW A WAVE LIKE
FEATURE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION.

8:05pm Discussion

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE 00 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W. THIS WAVE IS NOT VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A MONSOON TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE E
TROPICAL ATLC. HOWEVER BASED UPON HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
BETWEEN 21W-25W. IN ADDITION THE GFS MODEL DOES SHOW A WAVE LIKE
FEATURE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION.

8:05pm Discussion

Well not quite yet it has been introduced but it will at the 2 AM discussion.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Looks fairly impressive as of 23:45 or 7:45pm

[ConvergenceZone]

WOW, CHECK OUT THE LATEST!! It's blowing up even more now than 2 hours ago....Looks like an invest soon folks, what do you think??? Click on the below link. This has really exploded, no hype here!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

hey luis, do you think this will be in an invest this weekend. This is about the healthiest wave I've seen as far as convection is concerned. I mean it's really blown up in the last couple of hours. I think it may catch us all off guard, and we could have a depresson by the end of the weekend. I'm wondering if this develops sooner if it will head more northwest?? Check out the below image, very impressive!!! This will be mentioned in the next TWO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[jhamps10]

and he is in an area of very small shear at all, I think that it may be declared an invest later tonight, or tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

and he is in an area of very small shear at all, I think that it may be declared an invest later tonight, or tomorrow.

and what's funny is this almost looks better than Ernesto does right now... LOL.

I agree with you regarding the Invest. If this convecton holds, then an Invest will be issued tomorrow morning, and we could have a depression either late Saturday or Sunday. Again, the big key is IF the convection holds, but so far so good! I wonder if it's going to get close to South America like Ernesto did?

[sma10]

The GFS has been particularly bullish on this system and has consistently developed it over the past few model runs. In fact, it develops it and tracks it consistently toward Puero Rico and D.R.

The other models have not been nearly as consistent, but I noticed today that the 12Z UK appears to develop something in that area and the Euro is starting to show some action.

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFS has been particularly bullish on this system and has consistently developed it over the past few model runs. In fact, it develops it and tracks it consistently toward Puero Rico and D.R.

The other models have not been nearly as consistent, but I noticed today that the 12Z UK appears to develop something in that area and the Euro is starting to show some action.

wow, takes it as far North as PR huh? I figured it would be another south rider, but I guess something may pull it more towards that direction the closer it gets to the islands....I have a feeling this thread will be really busy come tomorrow and Sunday.

[sma10]

I wonder if it's going to get close to South America like Ernesto did?

Don't think so. It's early days, but I'm thinking if this becomes a problem for anyone it'll be more a Greater Antilles track than Lesser Antilles.