Ernesto Out To Sea?

[IsItComing]

Seems like they keep moving the track further and further to the east. I am in Broward County and am hoping that keeps going.

What do you guys think, will this thing turn up quikly and miss Florida all together?

[ConvergenceZone]

not likely....There's a ridge which will block it which is what a couple of the Mets alluded too here..I don't think it will move east again.

[IsItComing]

not likely....There's a ridge which will block it which is what a couple of the Mets alluded too here..I don't think it will move east again.

That is not what I was hoping to hear, the new NHC forecast track brings it in right at me.

[dwg71]

It very well could move east, the NHC cone has it as far east as the bahamas. The official track is only maybe 50 miles into florida. To think track cant move east 100 miles in two days or west for that matter is a pretty bold statement. Ernie could very well miss the pennisula.

[gilbert88]

It could move out to sea, but given the present conditions (that the Pro Mets have explained already) it shouldn't.

Time to stop speculating and prepare.[/b]

[ConvergenceZone]

yea, there is a chance, but it's extremely slim at this point......

[Noah]

not likely....There's a ridge which will block it which is what a couple of the Mets alluded too here..I don't think it will move east again.

That is not what I was hoping to hear, the new NHC forecast track brings it in right at me.

WEll it had it right at me yesterday and look what happened. Its hard to tell anymore.

[dwg71]

I dont think the chances are "extremely slim" that the forecast could shift 100 miles in 48 hours. The bahamas need to be prepared as well. Would you sound the all clear for the bahamas - I sure wouldnt.

[Stratusxpeye]

Not sure on this one. This could be a possibility though. I called for key largo yesterday but may be even further to the east. may just barely try to skirt the southeast nudge of the miami area or SE Florida. Or could barely brush the penisula at all. IMO 50/50 Not unlikely.

[Noah]

First Texas, then Alabama, then Florida panhandle, Then west coast, then east coast, maybe no coast.

Its like flipping dice.

Everyone I know here is thinking how are we supposed to believe anything or get prepared properly.

Like for example.. booking a hotel somewhere and then the storm coming that way.

This Ernesto has made such HUGE swings in direction. its like crying wolf anymore.

This is how people become complacent. I dont mean not being prepared with food, water ect. I am every year, but as far as planning evacuation ect.

Seems like every summer I should take Prozac!!!!! I am more concerned with the constant changing and pulling in directions, mind and body, then the actual storms. LOL

[Stormtrack]

not likely....There's a ridge which will block it which is what a couple of the Mets alluded too here..I don't think it will move east again.

I wonder where they got that. The models don't show it. If you go to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ and put in 48 hours, the ones that show the ridge don't show it being close to Florida. At 96 hours, some show Ernesto encountering the ridge farther north. They do seem to disagree on where in relation to Florida the storm will be.

[timNms]

First Texas, then Alabama, then Florida panhandle, Then west coast, then east coast, maybe no coast.

Its like flipping dice.

Everyone I know here is thinking how are we supposed to believe anything or get prepared properly.

Like for example.. booking a hotel somewhere and then the storm coming that way.

This Ernesto has made such HUGE swings in direction. its like crying wolf anymore.

This is how people become complacent. I dont mean not being prepared with food, water ect. I am every year, but as far as planning evacuation ect.

Seems like every summer I should take Prozac!!!!! I am more concerned with the constant changing and pulling in directions, mind and body, then the actual storms. LOL

With Ernesto, the models have given us some grief. A local Walmart store was out of gas not long after the model plots showed Ernie south of New Orleans. People were waiting in long lines to fill up autos and gas containers. I think Katrina was a wake up call to a lot of Mississippi residents.

My advice to those who are in or near the cone of uncertainty is to be prepared for the worst and pray for the best. All hurricane supplies should have been bought months ago. The only thing left to do should be to get out of harm's way if the orders come.