Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

Sanibel · #101 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:06 am

Don't let your guard down west coast. NHC has underestimated ridge strengths recently.

cpdaman · #102 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:17 am

very true all the shifting east has sw florida feeling safe it is not

this could surprise just about anyone

#103 Postby **Noah** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:24 am

Sanibel wrote:Don't let your guard down west coast. NHC has underestimated ridge strengths recently.

Can you give example?

Sanibel · #104 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:36 am

They took Katrina into the Big Bend of Florida on first prognosis. It ended up hundreds of miles west of that in New Orleans.

This one is a little more sturdy though because the ridge is pinned by the approaching shortwave.

I wonder if it will continue to trend east?

gtalum · #105 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:41 am

From what I've seen on tv, the consensus seems to be that the track may move slightly east, but probably not west. But as noted, who really knows with Ernesto?

westmoon · #106 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:42 am

remember charlie, up until 3 hrs prior to landfall it was coming to Tampa Bay, you never know until it has happend.

#107 Postby **Noah** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:45 am

westmoon wrote:remember charlie, up until 3 hrs prior to landfall it was coming to Tampa Bay, you never know until it has happend.

Yes I know, but Ernesto has steadily moved east.

Charlie was going east as well and the made a sharp east curve, not in a different direction.

westmoon · #108 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:49 am

Point was we won't know for sure until it has happened, so much can change in just a few hours. I for one am not letting my guard down.

Loring · #109 Postby **Loring** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:08 pm

bcp wrote:I want to officially call out "Normandy" who essentially called "Josephine" an idiot for suggesting that a west coast Fla landfall, Now the NHC 5 day forecast track shows just that.

Where is Normandy??

x2

and whats with suggesting wfl be slammed for that forecast?

so much for synoptics, huh? :roll:

stormie · #110 Postby **stormie** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:14 pm

Noah wrote:
westmoon wrote:remember charlie, up until 3 hrs prior to landfall it was coming to Tampa Bay, you never know until it has happend.

Yes I know, but Ernesto has steadily moved east.

Charlie was going east as well and the made a sharp east curve, not in a different direction.

In the days prior, Charlie's projected path had toggled between the Punta Gorda area and the Tampa Bay area. I remember this because my boss at the time had a 2nd home in Punta Gorda, and we kept going back and forth worrying about her 2nd home or our ownselves here in Tampa...the cone always had both Tampa and Punta Gorda in it, so it was accurate all along and right up until the end in that sense.

Unfortunately, my point here is that, the only thing we should be really counting on is that it's going to go somewhere in the 3-day cone. That sounds so silly or obvious, but really...that's just it. IMHO, of course.

#111 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:27 pm

Good call Josephine96! I'll be looking for your gut feelings with future storms. Pretty impressive.

westmoon · #112 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:02 pm

Keep in mind the state of Florida is not that wide, to be off by 100 miles 36 or 48 hours out is not that uncomon.

Sanibel · #113 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

Track shifting back towards west coast.

Like I said before, don't let your guard down just yet on the west coast of Florida.

#114 Postby **Noah** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:32 pm

Sanibel wrote:Track shifting back towards west coast.

Like I said before, don't let your guard down just yet on the west coast of Florida.

I am not the only one who saw the west shift..ty

jenshops · #115 Postby **jenshops** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:39 pm

I don't think it matter which way anything shifts, it looks dead to me. I can't see this thing doing anything at all.

Ixolib · #116 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:41 pm

jenshops wrote:I don't think it matter which way anything shifts, it looks dead to me. I can't see this thing doing anything at all.

Over land? -- dead.

Over water? -- perhaps not dead.....

#117 Postby **stpeteweathergal** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:12 am

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Windswept · #118 Postby **Windswept** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:15 am

(Untrained eye here)

Looking at the various maps ( radar, water vapor, satelite, etc) it just looks like Ernie is still moving more west to me.

What is supposed to cause it to shift north and east? I see the upper level low ( I think) in the Gulf, but it seems far away and not exerting much influence on Ernie.

westmoon · #119 Postby **westmoon** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:16 am

starting to get concerned again here in tampa bay, if he doesn't turn soon to the east the west coast of florida could get it after all

#120 Postby **melhow** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:19 am

stpeteweathergal wrote:Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Did you hear this on the radio this morning? Station 97.9, I think? Where Steve J. was talking about how VIPIR had nailed Charley and a few other systems, and how it's still calling for a Tampa'ish landfall?

I only caught the tail end of the broadcast.

I also thought I heard him mention a "gut" feeling about strengthing. DId you catch that?

Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

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