Finally figured Ernesto out

[Downdraft]

After reading everyone's posts, professional mets, very smart amateurs and just plain old fashioned weather geeks I then went to the t.v. and listened to all the hype on it. I then read the NHC, Accuweather, Jeff Masters and everyone I could get my hands on. There is only one conclusion you can make and without stepping on some very big egos the bottom line is.................

NO ONE has a clue!

Like every other storm I've watched in almost 40 years it's educated guess work and if you get lucky you call yourself an expert and if you blow it you move on to the next one.

[CronkPSU]

not helping that this is the worst bipolar storm we have had in a while...only heightened by the bipolar nature of the message board

[Extreme Alde]

After reading everyone's posts, professional mets, very smart amateurs and just plain old fashioned weather geeks I then went to the t.v. and listened to all the hype on it. I then read the NHC, Accuweather, Jeff Masters and everyone I could get my hands on. There is only one conclusion you can make and without stepping on some very big egos the bottom line is.................

NO ONE has a clue!

Like every other storm I've watched in almost 40 years it's educated guess work and if you get lucky you call yourself an expert and if you blow it you move on to the next one.

LOL

This is one difficult storm to forecast huh?

[gatorcane]

great post and topic! Love it.

We have little clue what is going on with Ernesto. He certainly has a mind of his own.

[CrazyC83]

Ernesto kinda reminds me of a mini-Elena. Someone with a really bad headache and doesn't know what to do...

[redmosquito]

After reading everyone's posts, professional mets, very smart amateurs and just plain old fashioned weather geeks I then went to the t.v. and listened to all the hype on it. I then read the NHC, Accuweather, Jeff Masters and everyone I could get my hands on. There is only one conclusion you can make and without stepping on some very big egos the bottom line is.................

NO ONE has a clue!

Like every other storm I've watched in almost 40 years it's educated guess work and if you get lucky you call yourself an expert and if you blow it you move on to the next one.

Haha! Good call!

[westmoon]

Has a tropical storm or hurricane ever done what we thought it would? The only thing we know for sure is what has already happened.

[FritzPaul]

I wonder if the same environment that has prohibited development before Ernie ( i.e. June, July, and most of August) is also making it VERY hard to forecast his path?

[frederic79]

Speaking of the unpredicable nature of hurricanes and tropical storms,
I am posting a discussion on Katrina published August 25 of last year...

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS CREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS
KATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

The interesting thing here is, and the graphic showed this for several runs, Katrina was forecast to recurve back into the Florida peninsula right after entering the Gulf. This would be as a weak tropical storm. Here's the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml

I just thought it rather dramatically depicts the fickle nature of forecast models and just how quickly things can change in the tropics. Heck, Ernesto was first projected to end up in the Western Gulf and now may miss the Gulf altogether.

Just a footnote: Katrina was originally forecast to recurve early on due to a deepening trough over the Central US. Timing is everything however I think the NHC pretty much has Ernesto pegged...

[Downdraft]

I just looked at the floater and posted the tropical points. It shows a tropical storm approaching the south Florida coast and a category one hurricane INLAND. Now that's a neat trick if Ernesto pulls it off. Just another piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit anything. If I were the people in Rejkavik Iceland right now I would be boarding up my windows and getting ready.

[Annular Cane]

I just looked at the floater and posted the tropical points. It shows a tropical storm approaching the south Florida coast and a category one hurricane INLAND. Now that's a neat trick if Ernesto pulls it off. Just another piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit anything. If I were the people in Rejkavik Iceland right now I would be boarding up my windows and getting ready.

Urgent message: A hurricane watch is now in effect for... THE WHOLE WORLD!

Nobody can figure this guy out, so might as well play it safe.

[decgirl66]

I think Ernesto had one too many drinks on his journey!

[westmoon]

decgirl66,

I think Ernesto had one too many drinks on his journey!

Now i know why these stormes wobble so much

[Florida_brit]

I personally blame the Cuban Rum...

[Annular Cane]

Poor Ernie looks like he's been suffering a hangover all day.

[ishop]

Downdraft

I am a lurker learning my way through since --
since dear old Charley hit us here --down near Red Bug Lake Park



But I most say -it looks like we will be getting some of the action
just wont be getting that North East quad-- maybe the west quad --

Nobody seems to care much yet --I went down by Publix --didn't see many people preparing ...

[Stormtrack]

Florida likely won't even see rain. Every forcast the NHC has made with this storm has had a left of actual track error. No reason to believe this will not continue.

[Brandon007]

I've been thinking about it to, this storm is hilarious it has been forcast everywhere from texas all the way across the GOM and now its being forcast on the east coast! I mean why do we even bother forcasting past 24 hours. The thing is I know where Ernie is headed.......... CANADA!! lol Ernie clearly has a mind of his own my forcast is he will either disapate all to gether or he will make landfall in Canada

CANADA or Bust!! lol

[Downdraft]

Since I'm already in the warned area I have no choice but to be totally ready and I've done that. So now after careful analysis and consideration looking at troughs, ridges, ULL's. CDO's, LLC's and the cartoon channel I am ready to make my forecast.
I will forecast this....one, I will go to bed tonight and, two I will get up in the morning and deal with it then. Finally, one fridge is full of water and ice, the patio fridge is full of beer and hmmmmm beer. After 2004 I can say been there, done that (X 3) and Ernesto can come to the party or take the day off and go fishing.
By the way when I make these particular forecasts they always verify 100%.
Raincoat anyone? Perhaps a cold one instead........

[whereverwx]

Predicting where a hurricane will go is like estimating how many jelly beans are in a jar. You’re either off by a lot or really close (although you may accurately estimate it, it’s usually just luck […and I’m talking about the jelly beans {it’s almost impossible to accurately predict where a hurricane will go}]).