threat to carolinas

[NCgreenhead]

The real questions is of course how much of a turn to the east will there be after the 8am thur plot assuming of course that it is where the storm will actually be. IF the high is stronger or the front slower/weaker then this thing could come right into central to upstate SC/ or worse IMO get right on the coast then follow it up to Cape Fear thus wacking both Charleston and Myrtle Beach then coming ashore and staying over the coastal NC counties putting the OB in the wrong side of the storm.

It is usually hard for storms in this setup to strengthen to much after coming off Florida however I do want to stress usually. Also I am a little fearful it may miss Florida althogether and that may increase it strength and if the storm is a deeper, larger, stronger system it may react to the high more than the front thus a more west track.

All things consider it just goes to show how little we understand these things 5 days ago if you had told me Ernesto was going to maybe miss Florida to the EAST and head up to my neck of the woods I would have laughed convinced this would be a problem for Mexico, Texas or central gulf at the furthest east.

[MBismyPlayground]

Well, after reading Derek's analysis, http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88984

I am becoming a little more concerned....time to stock up now, just in case before Wally World gets crazier.

[SCMedic]

Yeah, I would start loading up too... I'm currently debating on how much wieght to put into the current models and forecast... I have some famiy here in Mount Pleasant that might need to take a roadtrip.. Especially if it gets off of Cuba today, and ends up missing florida...

A few local mets now have made comments about it riding the coast from Charleston to the Myrtle Beach, before stalling...

This could, and I stress, COULD, end up as a big time event for the Carolina's..

Personally, I hope it goes poof and I can go to Charlotte for the weekend.

[HurricaneJim]

If you take a look at the SSTs running up past Hatteras, I'd say hit Wally World now before the masses figure out what's coming. This little creature seems to morph at will in order to stay over it's "Food Soruce" and it's about to clear land and head into a "Horn of Plenty."

The way it's been acting with regards to keeping itself in touch with warm water, I'd say that it will enjoy the Gulf Stream right about now immensely.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[UpTheCreek]

All things consider it just goes to show how little we understand these things 5 days ago if you had told me Ernesto was going to maybe miss Florida to the EAST and head up to my neck of the woods I would have laughed convinced this would be a problem for Mexico, Texas or central gulf at the furthest east.

Agreed, I would shrugged that off in a heartbeat! Just never know....

[Lowpressure]

Yeah, I would start loading up too... I'm currently debating on how much wieght to put into the current models and forecast... I have some famiy here in Mount Pleasant that might need to take a roadtrip.. Especially if it gets off of Cuba today, and ends up missing florida...

A few local mets now have made comments about it riding the coast from Charleston to the Myrtle Beach, before stalling...

This could, and I stress, COULD, end up as a big time event for the Carolina's..

Personally, I hope it goes poof and I can go to Charlotte for the weekend.

I live in Charlotte and my family planned a vacation this weekend in Myrtle Beach, we have not had a vacation in almost three years due to having our own company, wouldn't you know rolling the dice on Labor Day at the coast may bite us.

[HurricaneJim]

They are creatures of the sea. A strange incest between troubled columns of air and liquid that want's to rise. They come from it and bear it up into the sky.

Watch the water and that's where they'll go if they have the slightest chance. At least that's what's been panning out the last few years. When planning a chase I hardly ever look at atmospherics anymore unless they're a really, really strong feature and can't miss exerting pressure on them.

Katrina and Rita both were water hounds and they pushed almost everything out of their way to get at what they wanted. So was Wilma. And look at the what happened when Charley took that big 'ole hit off the liquid crack pipe last minute. Hit those loop currents like fiends and came rolling on in.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[MBismyPlayground]

If there are any kind of warnings issued in this area and the local mets pick it up, it will be one crazy time here. There are over 3500+ golfers in town for the World Am golf Tournament. So even the torrential rains will have an impact.
I have missed anything on the stall but, several from here did notice it. The real kick in the butt here is that Horry County has closed several of the evacuation centers this year for one reason or another. The very closest center is in Conway.Aprox 20 miles in on Hwy 501. Wonder what they would do if this actually hit us???

[krisj]

Our local guy today at noon, said something about ernesto stalling just off the SC/NC coast, probably south of Cape Fear, and then doing a little ophelia type loop before being forced west into the Charleston area... That's a scary scenerio, because it would just sit right over the gulf stream....

Who was that? I watched Channel 2 and he said that the Vipercast had it west of the NHC predicition at 11am and so that would bring it closer to us. I'd like to see if I couldn't find the loop scenario on an online video or at least watch that station this evening.

[brunota2003]

Here is what Jeff Master had to say:

Ernesto is a more significant threat to the Carolinas
While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.

Source: Ernesto
For one I hope he is wrong...bad Ernesto...bad bad bad...and that would be a bad hairday for my family and I also...Nice to see so many folks from my neck of the woods though, was beginning to think I was one of the few here who was actually interested in weather...Hope all of my fellow Carolinians stay safe and are almost completely prepared for any threat from Ernesto And I also hope that our semi-new roof isn't effected, it was put on in May...
EDIT: edited "safe safe" to "stay safe"

[Brent]

I think this is becoming more and more likely... this could easily be a major hurricane if it takes the right track. Labor Day Weekend is looking ugly for the entire East Coast.

[NCgreenhead]

Not going to get to worried yet still a long time for the models to go offshore with this system and I am about 60 miles north/northwest as the crow flies from Morehead/Alantic Beach and about 80 miles due west of Cape Hatteras so on the current forecast track I most likely would only get tropical storm gust (last year Ophelia did not even give me that) so I would need to see a shift to the left to get in full oh oh mode. All you folks at the coast on the other hand better already be getting ready even if it is "only" a cat 1.

[Bane]

^we need the rain here, just not any destruction.

[UpTheCreek]

Nice to see so many folks from my neck of the woods though, was beginning to think I was one of the few here who was actually interested in weather...Hope all of my fellow Carolinians stay safe and are almost completely prepared for any threat from Ernesto And I also hope that our semi-new roof isn't effected, it was put on in May...

Back atcha, neighbor!

[brunota2003]

Not going to get to worried yet still a long time for the models to go offshore with this system and I am about 60 miles north/northwest as the crow flies from Morehead/Alantic Beach and about 80 miles due west of Cape Hatteras so on the current forecast track I most likely would only get tropical storm gust (last year Ophelia did not even give me that) so I would need to see a shift to the left to get in full oh oh mode. All you folks at the coast on the other hand better already be getting ready even if it is "only" a cat 1.

Other than putting light objects away/getting money and gas, we have been prepared since June 1st With you, unless it comes back west I wouldnt be to concerned yet...as for me...about 15 miles North-West of Morehead City, or about 8 as the crow flys...so for me it is a "oh da** I hope it changes or stays weak" and the fact here in my section of Havelock it is pretty wooded...these 5 day forecasts have been within 20-30 miles of me the last 24 hours and the fact that its still over me even after the G-IV jet data was entered into the models...

[brunota2003]

Nice to see so many folks from my neck of the woods though, was beginning to think I was one of the few here who was actually interested in weather...Hope all of my fellow Carolinians stay safe and are almost completely prepared for any threat from Ernesto And I also hope that our semi-new roof isn't effected, it was put on in May...

Back atcha, neighbor!

you almost are literally up the creek from me, except its a river...nice name choice We are prepared (excluding a few things)...ready for the worst, hoping for the best...

[Bane]

I'm less than 2 miles from the ocean.

[Eyes2theSkies]

It's my fault. I lived in Florida for 13 years, got hit by 4 hurricanes and 2 major TS. I moved here 2 months ago. I think I'm being followed...

[Stephanie]

Here is what Jeff Master had to say:

Ernesto is a more significant threat to the Carolinas
While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.

Source: Ernesto
For one I hope he is wrong...bad Ernesto...bad bad bad...and that would be a bad hairday for my family and I also...Nice to see so many folks from my neck of the woods though, was beginning to think I was one of the few here who was actually interested in weather...Hope all of my fellow Carolinians stay safe and are almost completely prepared for any threat from Ernesto And I also hope that our semi-new roof isn't effected, it was put on in May...
EDIT: edited "safe safe" to "stay safe"

CRAP! The TS wind speed cone through Day 5 has me in the 20% range. Yesterday the models had Ernesto rolling out to sea after raking the Carolinas.

I certainly hope we're not going to see the "new and improved" Labor Day storm.

[brunota2003]

new and improved in wrecking our tourist industry... Havelock not only depends on NADEP (Naval Aviation Depot) and Cherry Point, but a big percent is tourism also...think about it...everyone one who goes down Highway 70 to get to Morehead City and Atlantic Beach for anything, vacation, boat show, big fishing contest...all have to pass through Havelock and our shops/food places and maybe even take a look at our tourist center, which includes a boardwalk down by Slocum creek and the tourist center has quite a display, including several restored aircraft outside it and hanging up inside the building