Ernesto Forecasts (Forecast 13 Posted)

[ncweatherwizard]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


From Nencweather.com

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable always first consult
and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This
forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional
source of information except nencweather.com.

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /five.html

It took awhile for me to decide what to do with this one. This forecast is a compromise of potential solutions and will most likely turn out to be wrong.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /five.html

I went ahead with 35kts for this forecast, assuming that we either have no good center of circulation, meaning that the forecast won't verify anyway, or that a center is underneath the western edge of convection and we have a healthy tropical storm, which seems very possible looking at visible--but it's difficult to tell by high clouds. Track forecast is fairly simple--how far north or south will depend largely on intensity.

Scott

[Jim Hughes]

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /five.html

I went ahead with 35kts for this forecast, assuming that we either have no good center of circulation, meaning that the forecast won't verify anyway, or that a center is underneath the western edge of convection and we have a healthy tropical storm, which seems very possible looking at visible--but it's difficult to tell by high clouds. Track forecast is fairly simple--how far north or south will depend largely on intensity.

Scott

Heading is misleading. This forum is a stickler for rules. Surprised they let you keep it at TS 5. May end up being legit at 2pm but it's not now. Nor has it been overnight.

[Stephanie]

Editted title. If it was a Tropical Storm it would be named.

[ncweatherwizard]

I understand your concern, but with all due respect, I prudently maintained the system as "Five", and it is misleading to label the title as Tropical Depression Five when I start at 35kts, and furthermore explain myself in my post.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 3:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

This is a very skim analysis. I do note that CONU bends the storm north but has a slower track due to widespread global guidance. Forecast does show a Category 3 in the GOM in 5 days. Everybody keep a close watch.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 4:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

This is one of the hardest forecasts I have ever had to do...confidence is low.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 6:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Once again, land interaction makes this forecast exceptionally difficult. Also initializing the center and the storm's motion is difficult; track and intensity will depend on each other to some extent as well, further complicating the issue.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 7:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Another tough forecast; we'll see how much of the center remains intact in a few hours, and then we can go from there. Also, it's tracking to the east of most guidance.

Scott

[2cyprus]

http://www.caribbean-weather.org/florid ... &Update=Go
10 day weather florida

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Tropical storm for Florida unless an LLC gets its act together really quickly--which is not completely out of the question. Strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane for Carolinas. Flow ahead of troughing to the west of the storm could aid outflow of Ernesto which in combination with the Gulf Stream would help intensify it if it emerges over water. Could be a big rainmaker also for the mid-Atlantic if the trough does not pick it up.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

No hurricane predicted; although, it's possible that it could briefly become a minimal hurricane before making landfall in Florida, and if it tracks farther east after emerging from Florida.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

I forgot to post the new forecast earlier...nothing much new tonight.

Forecast 10:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 11:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 12:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Since center is intact, I bring it up to 50kts at landfall with favorable environmental flow, warm waters, and baroclinic interaction all going in favor of Ernesto.

Scott

[ncbird]

Thank you for sharing your work. I really enjoy reading your forecasts and having another well written source to explore.

Keep up the great work!!

NCBird

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 13:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... nesto.html

Cat 1 hurricane for SE NC. Conditions favorable for intensification--see forecast; I'm rushing around right now.

Scott