threat to carolinas

[emeraldislencguy]

what are the new predictions for the coast of south and north carolina--this is a busy holiday week end and need some guidance from the experts.

[Brent]

Right now I'd say effects similar to Charley, but that's highly dependent on it's strength when it's near SE FL(or whether it goes over it or not). If the storm doesn't strengthen and remains weak there will just be a lot of rain.

But I'm not an expert. That's just the interperation of the NHC track.

[chicagopizza]

I don't know about NC, but hope this statement I found from the Charleston office helps:

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>051-282200-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...
STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON...PEMBROKE...
FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
648 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA TODAY AND MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A HURRICANE. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
BE POSITIONED OFF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A HURRICANE.

BASED ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WIND SPEEDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...PARTICULARLY THE COASTAL AREAS...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON...SAVANNAH AND
BEAUFORT METRO AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS...WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...COULD ALSO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA.

THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK...STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ERNESTO SO NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE
ACTION PLAN.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND FORECASTS AS WELL AS
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON. THIS
CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR
LOCAL NEWS SOURCE.

[Bane]

i would think the effects could end up being much greater than charley since ernesto is forecast to b moving much slower than charley.

[gtalum]

That coul dbe a disaster with tourists piling into the Carolina coasts for Labor Day weekend oblivious to the storm threat.

[Bane]

if the storm intenisifies and heads this way, evacuations will stop any tourist influx.

[SCMedic]

I work for a coastal county EMS system here, and they have already started the hurricane plan preps for us. Mandatory recall sucks!

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks for all the imput--
I live about a half black form the ocean and have a business on the beach--thjs is our last big week-end--it doenst look good right now--the track is getting very close to us--

[Steve]

Could be the biggest impact anyone in the US sees from Ernesto. Sometimes storms riding up the east side of troughs can bring a ton of rain with them. It's gonna depend. Some of the models have previously hinted at some bombing off the NC Coast. But we gotta get it trough/over/by Florida first. Stay tuned.

Steve

[vacanechaser]

if it comes in as strong as forecast right now, and on the track that is forecast, that could pump a big surge from the pamlico sound into the area.... will be watching and waiting to see what happens... mark is heading to florida and todd and i will wait here for the weekend.... mark and james will then try to make it back here for the carolina landfall if possible...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[GTStorm]

Are we likely to see the "eastward shift" that has been going on since Saturday night? Hope so....

[UpTheCreek]

Since the media as a whole were talking about a Gulf region hit over the weekend, they seem fairly quiet about it since it's shifted eastward. If it were to head up to NC, it would coincide with all the folks heading out to the beaches for the last big weekend of the summer. That could make for some busy evacuations if it comes to us with any strength.

Emeraldislencguy, do you suppose they'd prevent non-locals from coming on the island as early as Thursday, possible to avoid a messy evac if it were necessary?

[BUD]

Have any of the local mets say anything about this thing stalling off the coast???Ours have said something about a stall out over the coast.

[MBismyPlayground]

I work for a coastal county EMS system here, and they have already started the hurricane plan preps for us. Mandatory recall sucks!

Here in Myrtle they have began hurricane preps as well... OPCOM 04 or something like that. Even though we only got the back end of Charlie last year, it definitly did some damage here. I cannot even imagine the economical impact here if we do not have our labor day tourists as the summer season has been SLOW.
Our local forecaster,Ed P. has put this up on the local web site, "One more point to make. Over the years, we've had several storms in Ernesto's position take a similar track eventually moving inland, over or just to our east and not one of these has ever been a major problem for us. These "East Coast Sliders" as they are often called, typically don't have tons of time to strengthen and often parallel the coast never making a direct hit. You still can't take it lightly, but this is not the "big one"!

[bzukajo]

What are the chances of this thing having an large impact on new England over the weekend? Or doe it go out to see from NC?

[emeraldislencguy]

I think they are just waiting to see what might happend in the next few days--but if there is a hurricane off the coast on thursday I cant imagine allowing people to come down for a holiday weekend--esp with the high bridge that crosses bogue sound.

[SCMedic]

We just went to OPCON 4 this morning too... The current path keeps it just off our coast...Any deviation to the left could be very bad news..

[btangy]

I think the big threat in the Carolinas will be the amount of rainfall. The GFS is showing a Rex block type scenario with an area of high pressure sitting to the N of Ernesto allowing Ernesto to sit over the N Carolina/Virginia region for days and days dumping tremendous amounts of rain. I am very concerned that this is more of a threat than even landfall in S FL right now.

[SCMedic]

Our local guy today at noon, said something about ernesto stalling just off the SC/NC coast, probably south of Cape Fear, and then doing a little ophelia type loop before being forced west into the Charleston area... That's a scary scenerio, because it would just sit right over the gulf stream....

[Hurritrax]

The NHC track keep moving ever so slightly to the east. Looks like it depends on where Ernie exits off Cuba and how much further east he tracks......The Florida Straights are warm and if it gathers steam there and then tracks east of Florida and up the east coast along and thru the extemely warm Gulf Stream, we may be in for a major storm by the time is gets to the Carolina's.....this is definitely one to keep an eye on.