Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

There are 45 knot wind barbs in the area indicating west winds. Also, as I mentioned in another thread, the GFS has been consistent developing a system in that area...Ill be watching..

[Hyperstorm]

While there is nothing organized at the present time, this is an area to watch for any development in the next few days. We are right in the heart of the hurricane season which means warm SSTs, favorable upper-level winds, monsoon trough of low pressure, and even less SAL intrusions. The GFS develops something from this area of disturbed weather so there is potential if it persists for 24-48 hours.

While that satellite image is up, look at the impressive area of low pressure located just west of the Cape Verde islands. That is the HUGE circulation that came off the coast a few days ago, with pressures in the 1005-1007 range across western Africa. This one is located right in the heart of the SAL, so it will not develop in the near term. That being said, as it moves westward it will also have to be watched as it will be entering a moister atmosphere. Similar systems have developed in the past from huge areas of circulation that had no deep convection...Elena in 1985 comes to mind.

[jhamps10]

yeah, one we will really need to watch over the next few days, is the wave at 8N-35 W. there was some big convection on this low overnight, and I spot maybe a small bit of circulation on this one. It seems afwully low in the latitudes, but it also is still pretty far east. This needs to be monitered for further development, I'd expect a possible invest in a couple of days on this one if it contiunes.

[gatorcane]

While there is nothing organized at the present time, this is an area to watch for any development in the next few days. We are right in the heart of the hurricane season which means warm SSTs, favorable upper-level winds, monsoon trough of low pressure, and even less SAL intrusions. The GFS develops something from this area of disturbed weather so there is potential if it persists for 24-48 hours.

While that satellite image is up, look at the impressive area of low pressure located just west of the Cape Verde islands. That is the HUGE circulation that came off the coast a few days ago, with pressures in the 1005-1007 range across western Africa. This one is located right in the heart of the SAL, so it will not develop in the near term. That being said, as it moves westward it will also have to be watched as it will be entering a moister atmosphere. Similar systems have developed in the past from huge areas of circulation that had no deep convection...Elena in 1985 comes to mind.

Yeah I agree we'll need to watch this as the GFS has been very bullish on it....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z continues developing a low pressure area from that vicinity.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[bayoubebe]

Florence may be on her way soon.

[jhamps10]

The convection is starting to get into range of the central Atlantic sat, images, so we will now be able to get frequent satellite updates on this low, this afternoon as it is coming into view of central atl IR satellite, it looked like we had some circuation of the convection blob. Of course on IR it is very hard to tell, and I have not looked at a visable shot of it yet, but I'd REALLY expect an invest on this soon, and in a few days a tropical depression????? Maybe, we will see.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[BatzVI]

Cyclone....do you think we might need to worry about this next wave here in the VI....seems to be at the about the right latitude....just curious of your thoughts on it.....will start preparations anyway, especially since Africa seems to be getting more active....thanks

[Anthonyl]

I need some varification given that this thread has been established. I noticed that this area is not being initialised on the TABF surface charts as an actual wave. Are we really looking at a wave or something else though from all indication it looks like a wave.

[CrazyC83]

Another system that is just going to be going I think. That is, if it develops. It is so poorly organized right now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Look at how favorable is the SAL right now.. Looks like the area of low pressure now at 40W made environmental conditions more humid..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

[CrazyC83]

Look at how favorable is the SAL right now.. Looks like the area of low pressure now at 40W made environmental conditions more humid..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

Debby could have played a role too - we could nickname her Debby the Dust Buster...

[Florida_brit]

Africa/Cape Verde is certainly hotting up....

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[Zardoz]

Africa/Cape Verde is certainly hotting up...

Looks like four, or maybe five, potential waves lined up:

[Wx_Warrior]

Goodness...we'll deal with them when they become something....until now...

Andalay ERNESTO Andalay

[jhamps10]

it looks like a VERY healthy wave, too far out still to realize if we have a circulation or not. I don't really think fish on this one, the islands do need to watch this, even though it is probeley a week away from the islands. still a LOT of time, and the SAL is looking pretty good though, so well have to keep updated on this wave/low very closely, it has good size, and good convection going on all sides of it.

[Anthonyl]

In terms of direction given the synopyic set up , what progressive movemnet would qualify for this system. The ridge looks pretty well established.

[jhamps10]

well if you follow the blob on the central atlantic sat. it is moving almost due west, with a little jog to the north of west. It is looking really good now Central atlantic IR loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Another system that is just going to be going I think. That is, if it develops. It is so poorly organized right now.

I highly doubt that if this develops that it will go "fish". Now if it was going to develop within the next 24 hours, then it would be possible, but I don't see it close to developing yet, and as the mets here on tv said, every day that goes by means less of a chance of a recurve should this area develop...So a fish at this point would be highly doubtful...