FROG TAB

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Can I start my own thread?

he following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don’t like doing this now that it looks like this IS NOT going into the Gulf. . .

11AM prediction:

NW 10mph winds at 55. Track shift east.

I think it will be wise to start talking about the possibility that this thing stays just off short while trekking up the E. Seaboard as a hurricane.

The front now in the ATL. missed Ernesto and the timing of the front now in the Ohio Valley moving SE is paramount as it appears as it will pick Ernesto up around the FL coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv-l.jpg

Also, even with the real data the models are E of previous runs.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

My 5Am position was 20N 76W made last night @ 2230.

11AM forecast is 21N76W
5PM is revised for 23N77W @ 70MPH
11PM tonight is 24.5N 79W near hurricane.

Watches for most of the FL E coast up to Daytona . . .

Let me know if this is not okay to start my own thread and I will post in general discussion.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Remember this is not an official forecast . . .

5AM Tuesday morning: 26N 79W 75mph moving NNW @ 12mph. Watches/Warnings S of Charleston SC.

11AM 27.5N 80W NNW @ 12mph 75mph. Warnings Cape Fear S. Watches to Va Bch.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I'm too far N and too strong. Of course this is not official, but I say E shift at 11AM as the storm looks to be right of guidance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I stopped issuing these as I could not forecast a storm to my area.