Invest 92 Model Map Up

[Scott_inVA]

Not much to show, especially given the GFDL has dropped it.
I'll try for the 0Z tonight especially if the GFS sees anything.

as always:
http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

ps...Happy Father's Day

[vbhoutex]

Your map confirms what I thought I saw in the models this afternoon. If this system does develop it is going to have to get across the Yucatan with the track it is currently on. Once it reaches the BOC it may have a chance, but more than likely will be pulled up to the N by the incoming trough and "landfall" near Fort Walton Beach, FL on Thurs. or Fri.only as a rainy low and nothing else.

This one has fooled us so far, as has every other system this year so who knows??? It is almost like these systems have thrown down the guantlet and said "just try and forecast me!!!"

[JetMaxx]

Yep vbhoutex, but it still makes me very nervous...

Most of Georgia and Alabama have been flooded since May 1st...16.4" here instead of the normal 5.7" (rainfall is 22" above normal in Douglasville since September 1, 2002 (past 9 1/2 months).

Lakes are above full pool (campsites and picnic areas under water); soils are saturated....rivers and streams already swollen with more scattered t-storms expected every day this week.

IF this thing were to develop even to a T.S. and slowly cross Alabama and Georgia, we could be looking at massive life threatening flash floods. I remember T.S. Alberto's record flooding well in early July of 1994...coming after a wet and stormy June had everything saturated.

Billions in damage and 39 lives lost are a testament to what could happen later this week. I just hope folks remember Alberto, and are better prepared if the worst case occurred (there were two deaths last week...both died in vehicles swept off flooded streams in west central Georgia).