BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1
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Jevo
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Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1
Ominous words by Mr. Stewart this morning
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
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Track towards peninsular Florida!
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Look at this close in near where the Nhc has the center. There appears to be a warm spot. Its hard to tell it could easly be a cooler cloud but I don't think so. It was moving north-northwestward for the first half of this frame. But then over the last 2 frames shows it going more west-northwest again. So it most likely will clip the northern eyewall on land but the center could still stay off shore. Remember dennis went right over. We will see.
zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
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SouthFloridawx
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For the people in the morning.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270900
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE
REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE
IS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62
KT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
EYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING
OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96
HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE
TRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
THAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA.
EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS
CURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT
...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS
VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY
BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
MODEL FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 73.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270900
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE
REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE
IS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62
KT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
EYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING
OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96
HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE
TRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
THAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA.
EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS
CURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT
...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS
VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY
BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
MODEL FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 73.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Jevo
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alot of people going to wake up with the Hurricane title in this thread and jawdrop....... classic example of diurnal strengthening.... Sunday is going to be an interesting day nonetheless.. Especially for Monroe county EOC
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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terstorm1012
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SouthFloridawx
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704
URNT12 KNHC 270850 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/08:34:20Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
072 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 3052 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 104 deg 069 kt
G. 346 deg 007 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 6 C/ 3059 m
J. 14 C/ 3039 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 17 CCA
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z
MAX FL WIND 0F 78KTS FROM 850MB
80MPH
URNT12 KNHC 270850 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/08:34:20Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
072 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 3052 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 104 deg 069 kt
G. 346 deg 007 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 6 C/ 3059 m
J. 14 C/ 3039 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 17 CCA
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z
MAX FL WIND 0F 78KTS FROM 850MB
80MPH
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TheEuropean
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What a change to wake up to.
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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SouthFloridawx
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fci wrote:What a change to wake up to.
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
I said in the TS thread... there is going to be so much crow handed out, they will be extinct.
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Matt, I mentioned that in the other thread ,the steering currents should take it WNW over the next 6-12hrs probably ploughing through central Cuba (Well eastern central Cuba!) as a cat-2/3. That'd be my punt right now given how slack the shear is presently. The Bermuda high has re-postioned itslef so that for at least the next 6-12hrs it should take a more westerly track then before.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:fci wrote:What a change to wake up to.
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
I said in the TS thread... there is going to be so much crow handed out, they will be extinct.
If this thing goes the way we fear, it may be the largest helping of crow we have seen in a very long time.
Now... a whole new set of questoins and analysis needs to take place:
What do Cuba and Haiti do to the strength of Ernesto?
Where does he emerge?
How much reintensification takes place?
Does he REALLY turn left when he emerges and then turn right again after visiting the GOM?
Does he even make it to the GOM?
Wow, we are in fairly uncharted waters here...
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Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at this close in near where the Nhc has the center. There appears to be a warm spot. Its hard to tell it could easly be a cooler cloud but I don't think so. It was moving north-northwestward for the first half of this frame. But then over the last 2 frames shows it going more west-northwest again. So it most likely will clip the northern eyewall on land but the center could still stay off shore. Remember dennis went right over. We will see.
zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
I'm looking at the GHCC site and there seems to be eyelike feature moving NNW still, and could go over the the western penisular and also just about miss Cuba on this course.
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Oh My God!!! I'm I still asleep - surely this must be some kind of nightmare. Lord, what have I done to deserve this 
And the poor guy on here that was getting blasted for suggesting another Charlie like scenario two days ago. Ughhh! I just want to throw something against the wall! Anyway, now that I had my emotional outburst, lets hope this thing really weakens over Cuba.
I'm I still asleep - surely this must be some kind of nightmare. Lord, what have I done to deserve this
And the poor guy on here that was getting blasted for suggesting another Charlie like scenario two days ago. Ughhh! I just want to throw something against the wall! Anyway, now that I had my emotional outburst, lets hope this thing really weakens over Cuba.
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