TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[ConvergenceZone]

models are updated now, I was going to say, none of them were pointing to southern Florida at all...Still looks like Northern Florida to me for a best bet..

[Bgator]

My thing is i do not belive that it will be a DIRECT Sfla landfall, but looking at those models the NHC is the major outlyer minus the GFDL, but the rest of the models point to Tampa south, which will lead to much biggre effects to SFLA, even the BAM's(though useless) have shifted north for the first time...if the models remain the same at 8AM than serious path change should be taken!

[Bailey1777]

Another thing to watch for the near future, see how all of those models take it North of Puerto Rico. Look at where E. is right now and watch him slide just South of there.

[caneseddy]

Bailey,

I think u mean Jamaica

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg


*edited by southerngale to make the image a link - too big

[southerngale]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

Not everyone, and WHY would anyone want a major hurricane (as it's forecast now) to devastate their city?

I was referring to the people I disagree with, by now I would think you know me better than that??

I know.

I was just clarifying "for everyone" that everyone doesn't want it, and the 2nd part was just a generalized question for those who DO seem to want it....why???

[Bgator]

Another thing to watch for the near future, see how all of those models take it North of Puerto Rico. Look at where E. is right now and watch him slide just South of there.

Bailey it is NOT moving due west, and almost NO model supports a Texas or west GOM solution anymore, yet you are poised on this west thing, do you have any proof for it?

[mtm4319]

Okay, a legit 55 knots now... still not a cane though IMO. And it looks to be moving a little more west now.

[Aquawind]

Nice Pic SouthFloridawx!

Healthy alrighty..

[Bailey1777]

Bgator you can have your storm with sugar on top of it but the storm is moving WNW and will continue to. There is a ridge North of it and that's a fact. It's not coming to Texas but it's not coming to you either.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm starting to wonder if it's going anywhere...

Might be reading the last fix wrong, but is does seem to be crawling now.

[clfenwi]

I'm starting to wonder if it's going anywhere...

Might be reading the last fix wrong, but is does seem to be crawling now.

They've only made one fix this flight so far... but after sending the original message, they have since sent two corrections to it, that's what causing your confusion.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tinyurl.com/m7527


Edited by CM because of size

[Bgator]

Bgator you can have your storm with sugar on top of it but the storm is moving WNW and will continue to. There is a ridge North of it and that's a fact. It's not coming to Texas but it's not coming to you either.

O beleive me ill pass on this storm, i had wilma, and cat 1 katrina last year, no power for 12 days, ill pass on the storm, im just asking if u can point out where u see the wnw movement, to me its hard to see any right now...

[Stratosphere747]

Makes sense C.

Noticed you mentioning that in the recon thread...

[Wx_Warrior]

WOuld love to see an eye

[SouthFloridawx]

wow sorry about that size I was looking at a much smaller image.

[baitism]

WOuld love to see an eye

Not with the shear it currently is fighting...

[ConvergenceZone]

WOuld love to see an eye

Not with the shear it currently is fighting...

the shear is almost history though and the NHC mentioned this....You can even see it dissipating on the latest maps.

[Bgator]

As of 3:38 there have onyl been 2 new sat pics out, but in those 2 i see a northward, jog, maybe "wobble" lol! Maybe just an illusion, will wait for more pics!