TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[AtlanticWind]

It moved .1 south and .0 west from 11pm to 2am.

reposition?

[StrongWind]

For the S Fl people, let me ask you all this.

There are two ways this storm can get to S FL, from the west, south, and the east.

1) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami.
2) It moves completely across Cuba, NEVER passing the lattitude of the Keys, and hit S FL moving DUE north.
3)It does one of the sharpest Recurves in hurricane history, passes just west of Havane (or just east) and recurves and heads NNE-NE over S Fl.

Ask yourselves, do ANY of those scenarios seem plausible?

I'm not sure, but isn't that 'three' ways?

[Windtalker1]

^Great, now bold the Yucatan part also.

I'm just saying that South Florida according to the NHC wasn't even in the cone up till tonight....Things do change!!!

[southerngale]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

Not everyone, and WHY would anyone want a major hurricane (as it's forecast now) to devastate their city?

[Normandy]

Bah I give up.

[Incident_MET]

For the S Fl people, let me ask you all this.

There are two ways this storm can get to S FL, from the west, south, and the east.

1) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami.
2) It moves completely across Cuba, NEVER passing the lattitude of the Keys, and hit S FL moving DUE north.
3)It does one of the sharpest Recurves in hurricane history, passes just west of Havane (or just east) and recurves and heads NNE-NE over S Fl.

Ask yourselves, do ANY of those scenarios seem plausible?

Normandy...can you please reexplain this point ??

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I just don't see anything at 500 to pull Ernie through FL?? I see a weakness at 700. Only thing i see at 500 is a high east of FL. It moves west into the GOM and opens the door i guess??? Mystery indeed..

[caneseddy]

Cleo did it back in August of 1964 (August 27th to be exact)..was a Cat 4 south of Haiti and then decreased to a minimal Cat 1/TS when passing over central Cuba, and got pretty much torn up and then increased to a Cat 2 between Cuba and Florida and went right over Key Biscayne as a Cat 2 and up along the coastline

All I'm pointing out is that a hurricane from the South is possible in August and that a storm passing over central Cuba from the South can intensify in that short of a distance

Can it happen? definitely...will Ernie do a Cleo but much weaker....very low probability

[Normandy]

For the S Fl people, let me ask you all this.

There are two ways this storm can get to S FL, from the west, south, and the east.

1) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami.
2) It moves completely across Cuba, NEVER passing the lattitude of the Keys, and hit S FL moving DUE north.
3)It does one of the sharpest Recurves in hurricane history, passes just west of Havane (or just east) and recurves and heads NNE-NE over S Fl.

Ask yourselves, do ANY of those scenarios seem plausible?

Normandy...can you please reexplain this point ??

Explain it more? What do u want me to explain

[CalmBeforeStorm]

1

) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami

.

Actually the storm is due SE of extreme south florida now so it would only have to move NW. Is this plausible? Why not?

[ericinmia]

For whatever its worth around 11:30pm tonight JB made a post outlining how the gfs could have been right the whole time, but that he is waiting until the morning to jump on it.

He says something to the effect that their is a weakness in the ridge that is allowing Ernesto to bump up into the ridge and not be effected by its steering hence allowing him to go farther north... He said this idea gives the GFS some credence. And that tomorrow based on what is happening he will change his call to a florida landfall...

for whatever its worth...

[CourierPR]

There must be a reason for the NHC to include Southern Florida in its latest bulletin for the first time.

[ConvergenceZone]

The models have made a big switch...and it's good news on this storm, because if this comes to Fruition, the storm is going to be severely weakened by the mountains of E. Cuba..

that is a good point Sean. IF those recent models DO verify, bye bye Ernesto...POOF!

[Droop12]

Maybe because a model has shown landfall there?

[stormspotter]

For whatever its worth around 11:30pm tonight JB made a post outlining how the gfs could have been right the whole time, but that he is waiting until the morning to jump on it.

He says something to the effect that their is a weakness in the ridge that is allowing Ernesto to bump up into the ridge and not be effected by its steering hence allowing him to go farther north... He said this idea gives the GFS some credence. And that tomorrow based on what is happening he will change his call to a florida landfall...

for whatever its worth...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

reminder to everyone in TX and elsewhere that seem so upset at why the Floridians can seem so antsy about this...

Charlie was supposed to weaken considerably upon crossing over Cuba. It did, pretty significantly, but then it hit the bath water of the GOM and blew up into a CAT4 within hours from a CAT1 status. I went to sleep late and woke up early to that suprise!

Charlie also pulled a hat trick of a right turn that took many off guard. True, his path was within the cone, but the extreme southeastern edge of the cone. Few in Charlotte county saw that one coming until they woke up and it was too late. It was on them.

Between that storm and seeing the devastation and aftermath of Katrina, I would rather be eyes wide open to ALL possibilities than complacent.

-Just as everyone in TX and all along the gulf needs to be right now until this thing hits somewhere.

[Wx_Warrior]

That would be the best news i've heard all day!!! POOOOOF

[Bailey1777]

The ridge is there and it is not weakening. The storm is still heading WNW and with every hour that it does that you need to turn your attention West(Not Texas)just West.

[mtm4319]

There was no G-IV dropsonde data tonight


G-IV flew Debby for a research project

Where have I heard that before, a potentially useful aircraft in another storm being unavailable because they were dinking around in Debby... yep, that's right, Camille.

[temujin]

Charlie was supposed to weaken considerably upon crossing over Cuba. It did, pretty significantly, but then it hit the bath water of the GOM and blew up into a CAT4 within hours from a CAT1 status. I went to sleep late and woke up early to that suprise!

Yes, this talk of Ernesto going poof! over Cuba is not realistic, unless he takes a day crossing completely over the most mountainous area of Cuba.