TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[Trugunzn]

then whats with the hole?

[rockyman]

What concerns me most about the models today as far as the Alabama coast is concerned...24 hours ago, the models were mostly to our west, then this morning, the models were pointing straight toward us, this afternoon they were to our east, now some are back to our west again...in other words, the pendulum is swinging back and forth, and the Alabama coast is in the "middle"...kinda like a person swinging a metal detector back and forth over the sand and narrowing in on the desired object

[AtlanticWind]

I think it does not look as good tonight as earlier today , but this should be temporary

[HouTXmetro]

The 00Z GFS will be out by 11:30 or so.

KFDM, do you think the GFS will continue a westward trend, maintain, or shift back east?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good question? will find out soon..

[ALhurricane]

I still think this has a shot at bending back more west in the next few days. Yes it has reformed more to the north and does play some role. With the northward placement, Ernesto will likely 'bump' up more against the ridge as it builds in to the north in the next few days. This could certainly turn Ernest more westward.

It also important to note that the CONU model shifted way to the west the last run. It proves two things at this point...

1. A track into the eastern Gulf is not a certainty

2. The models will not have a good handle on the situation until we get some upper air dropsonde missions.

3. Despite what some have said, the GFS does not have a good handle on the situation. Hopefully the 00z run can redeem itself.

[cinlfla]

then whats with the hole?

ita just a break in the clouds, there is no eye trust me when I tell you this. not yet anyway

[Extremeweatherguy]

no change in the 11pm track. Seems like they are waiting to see what happens tonight with the models and track until making any changes one way or another.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't expect much strengthening...it possibly could weaken during the next two days...it's just getting to shear and very dry air..

Are you sure about that Sean? The NHC seems in total disagreement with you based on the below map.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20

[Stormcenter]

I still think this has a shot at bending back more west in the next few days. Yes it has reformed more to the north and does play some role. With the northward placement, Ernesto will likely 'bump' up more against the ridge as it builds in to the north in the next few days. This could certainly turn Ernest more westward.

It also important to note that the CONU model shifted way to the west the last run. It proves two things at this point...

1. A track into the eastern Gulf is not a certainty

2. The models will not have a good handle on the situation until we get some upper air dropsonde missions.

3. Despite what some have said, the GFS does not have a good handle on the situation. Hopefully the 00z run can redeem itself.

New track shifts a tad further east. It now looks like this "may" be a Florida panhandle event. But remember last night it looked like LA. coast event so things could change. Though as we get closer to landfall the models get a better handle on the situation and less track adjustments.

[wxman57]

I still think this has a shot at bending back more west in the next few days. Yes it has reformed more to the north and does play some role. With the northward placement, Ernesto will likely 'bump' up more against the ridge as it builds in to the north in the next few days. This could certainly turn Ernest more westward.

It also important to note that the CONU model shifted way to the west the last run. It proves two things at this point...

1. A track into the eastern Gulf is not a certainty

2. The models will not have a good handle on the situation until we get some upper air dropsonde missions.

3. Despite what some have said, the GFS does not have a good handle on the situation. Hopefully the 00z run can redeem itself.

CONU (consensus model) is a good model - one of the best the past few years. It's now aiming for the MS Coast (not good, my mother lives there). The GFDL, NHC, and my track all take the center inland near Pensacola Thursday night as a Cat 3. Of course, nothing at all is certain. Four days before Katrina made landfall, the models were converging on Apalachicola. For Rita, the mid TX coast. The ridge north of Ernesto could end up holding firm for a bit longer. That's all it would take for Ernesto to hit Louisiana. Mid Louisiana coast to eastern FL panhandle residents better make preparations ASAP before the public awake and see the NHC track crossing the coast and the panic starts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think this has a shot at bending back more west in the next few days. Yes it has reformed more to the north and does play some role. With the northward placement, Ernesto will likely 'bump' up more against the ridge as it builds in to the north in the next few days. This could certainly turn Ernest more westward.

It also important to note that the CONU model shifted way to the west the last run. It proves two things at this point...

1. A track into the eastern Gulf is not a certainty

2. The models will not have a good handle on the situation until we get some upper air dropsonde missions.

3. Despite what some have said, the GFS does not have a good handle on the situation. Hopefully the 00z run can redeem itself.

New track shifts a tad further east. It now looks like this "may" be a Florida panhandle event. But remember last night it looked like LA. coast event so things could change. Though as we get closer to landfall the models get a better handle on the situation and less track changes.

The new track is not really much further east. It is more of just an extension to the 5pm track which also showed a Pensacola hit.

[cycloneye]

[Stormcenter]

I still think this has a shot at bending back more west in the next few days. Yes it has reformed more to the north and does play some role. With the northward placement, Ernesto will likely 'bump' up more against the ridge as it builds in to the north in the next few days. This could certainly turn Ernest more westward.

It also important to note that the CONU model shifted way to the west the last run. It proves two things at this point...

1. A track into the eastern Gulf is not a certainty

2. The models will not have a good handle on the situation until we get some upper air dropsonde missions.


3. Despite what some have said, the GFS does not have a good handle on the situation. Hopefully the 00z run can redeem itself.

New track shifts a tad further east. It now looks like this "may" be a Florida panhandle event. But remember last night it looked like LA. coast event so things could change. Though as we get closer to landfall the models get a better handle on the situation and less track changes.

The new track is not really much further east. It is more of just an extension to the 5pm track which also showed a Pensacola hit.

That is why I said a "tad" and not alot.

I think this statement from the 10pm advisory speaks volume as to where the NHC thinks this is going "right now".

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida Keys...
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this paragraph from the 11pm disco shows how uncertain they really are in the long term:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

[El Nino]

Jeff Masters is talking about land interaction with Hispanola and as a result a more fragmented Ernesto.

[rnbaida]

I think ernesto will go right into cuba and weaken back down to a TS... Then it may reach cat 2 before hitting somewhere on the gulf coast

[Tampa_God]

It looked like the storm was going alittle bit West earlier. It stayed on a straight line and then went back WNW.

[Dean4Storms]

wxman57

Quote

"Mid Louisiana coast to eastern FL panhandle residents better make preparations ASAP before the public awake and see the NHC track crossing the coast and the panic starts."


They may do that over in LA, but we in the Panhandle have seen so much of this that there won't be any panic. I've yet to have a neighbor even question me over this yet.

[Scorpion]

Yea I think Ernesto is fixin to visit Hati

Don't let the convection fool you. It is moving WNW at this time.