TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[miamicanes177]

00Z intensity guidance and track
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Still the 18z

no you must need to refresh or clear out your cache because its the 00Z

[cinlfla]

DESTRUCTION5 Those are the 00z models you may have to refresh your page.

[huricanwatcher]

think ya'll need to "lighten" up a bit......... so be it for funny post...... or replies....

[rnbaida]

TWC is talking more about katrina than ernesto...LOL

[mvtrucking]

Looking close up on the last visibles shows that the center is clearly moving about 290-300 degrees. Or west-northwestward. Also over the last few frames you can see that a MLC is stacking on top of the LLC...Which is a sign that this is strengthing right now. Would not suprize me if recon some time tomarrow found a eye forming.

I agree 100 % Matt. By the way SkySummit, this post is for you:

I think the storm is looking pretty nice this evening..

[CajunMama]

Another reminder please....Other members are complaining about not being able to get the information they are seeking because of all the uneccesary posts. Please be considerate and think before hitting submit. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664

If you want to chitchat join chat or post here... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88651

There are those who don't have the time to weed through alot of these posts to find information on Ernesto.

[teal61]

Hmm, really think some of you need to lighten up, some of the posts are becoming just plain ridiculous. All of this fighting is just wasting a lot of space.

Oh well, fwiw it looks like the 00z runs have shifted dare I say it...west. If I remember correctly WXman57 spoke of the CONU and said it is a very reliable model. Well the CONU has shifted 250 miles west between the 18z and 00z runs. Looks like the GFDL is further west to.

Point is its just a little early to tell where he's going, so lets just chill and see what mother nature does.

[skysummit]

Looking close up on the last visibles shows that the center is clearly moving about 290-300 degrees. Or west-northwestward. Also over the last few frames you can see that a MLC is stacking on top of the LLC...Which is a sign that this is strengthing right now. Would not suprize me if recon some time tomarrow found a eye forming.

I agree 100 % Matt. By the way SkySummit, this post is for you:

I think the storm is looking pretty nice this evening..

Yeah! mvtrucking!!!! LOL....

The I agree with you Matt. The conditions are improving. Look at the shear graphic. Notice that anticyclone just to the southwest of Ernesto. That'll soon be building over him and the rest of the NW Carribean. Also, shear has really decrease just to the west of him.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[southerngale]

COULD WE PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC AND LEAVE OUT THE PERSONAL ATTACKS AND USELESS DRIVEL CLUTTERING UP THIS THREAD?

I don't mean to sound harsh, but I'm tired of deleting posts and sending PM's when all you have to do is read the rules and the stickies at the top of the forum, and show some consideration for others.

This is getting ridiculous.

[Steve]

>>I thought it was very difficult if not impossible to tell the exact center using IR imagery. If this is true ( and i could be very wrong) the bickering about if the storm is on or off track is a waste of time and effort. I say that we should wait and see what NHC does at 11:00pm with the track and center.

You are correct.

Steve

[Trugunzn]

Ok now this thing looks like its now going to get a eye! Each frame those cloud tops got warmer and warmer between two blob. The blob west of it it blowing up even more. I think Hurricane by mourning.

[cinlfla]

Then what would be the best imagery to use at night when trying to locate a center

[HouTXmetro]

When does the next model suite come out?

[Trugunzn]

Another image. Possible eye peaking out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg
[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg[img][/img]

[JonathanBelles]

make all pictures small it reduces bandwith and accels the speed

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The 00Z GFS will be out by 11:30 or so.

[Scorpion]

No trugunzn, this is not getting an eyewall yet.

[Frank P]

on the IR loop the convection has just exploded in the past hour or so... this is by far the most convection associated thus far with Ernie

["Ice"]

Foxnews had a map of ernesto up and the three blobs were being discussed and said something about "Seperating" At that time, my sister and her husband walked in and the dogs started barking like there was no tomoorow, so I missed what was said.

[Dean4Storms]

Category -2 Tropical Storms don't have eyes.