TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[Scorpion]

I notice some nice outflow to the northeast.

[jenmrk]

Approx how long do the recon missons take?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I've been tracking the front blob you can see a little rotation underneath it.

From the last visibles and the 8:00 coordinates, I'm pretty sure the center is right in the middle of the first blob and I don't think it's going to miss the tip of Haiti by alot.

[rnbaida]

models cannot make up their mind!!!

[gopherfan21]

There is still a possibility it could hit Cuba and die there.

No. I believe we have had the discussion about Cuba's highlands many times before. No.

[Normandy]

Well I cannot spot the Low center on IR-Channel2, which isn't necesarilly a good thing

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you put on the overlay, it looks like this is following the forecast track perfectly right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[TampaFl]

Animated model plots from SFWMD showing trends.


http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2006

Robert

[Scorpion]

Well I cannot spot the Low center on IR-Channel2, which isn't necesarilly a good thing

What do you mean?

[Normandy]

^Meaning its bad because the shear is lessening.

[rnbaida]

what do you guys think winds will be at 11pm?

[Steve H.]

I didn't mean that his comment was necessarily funny, Alan could well be right. But I don't know about hitting Cuba and dieing. I don't think that's what he meant. Regarding the IR image above, the circulation is definitely in the leftmost blob. There is No Eye trying to form at this point. Once the ULL moves well out of the picture, the shear will drop off and we'll see a hurricane tomorrow at some point. That''s if it avoids land during the day tomorrow. Then we may see an eye, but I really think we won't see an eye 'til it gets into the SE GOM......(if it ever does)

[LSU2001]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

To me it looks like the ULL northwest of the storm is rapidly pulling away and disipating somewhat. this could lead to less shear and more strengthening. What do ya'll think?
tim

[Trugunzn]

maybe new center? between 2 blobs now?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I don't expect much strengthening...it possibly could weaken during the next two days...it's just getting to shear and very dry air..

[cinlfla]

I didn't mean that his comment was necessarily funny, Alan could well be right. But I don't know about hitting Cuba and dieing. I don't think that's what he meant. Regarding the IR image above, the circulation is definitely in the leftmost blob. There is No Eye trying to form at this point. Once the ULL moves well out of the picture, the shear will drop off and we'll see a hurricane tomorrow at some point. That''s if it avoids land during the day tomorrow. Then we may see an eye, but I really think we won't see an eye 'til it gets into the SE GOM......(if it ever does) :wink:

WEll in that case I have been tracking the right blob....yea me
DO you think a new center will form?

[Trugunzn]

Maybe moving north of Jamaica isnt good. Could really intensify!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6237ca.jpg


*edited by southerngale to make the image a link - too large

[Scorpion]

I don't expect much strengthening...it possibly could weaken during the next two days...it's just getting to shear and very dry air..

No, this period was supposed to be the worst. Ernesto is just getting into more favorable conditions. See that ULL pulling out?

[Trugunzn]

nice outflow:



between those two blobs the clouds are getting warming making me wonder!

[Brent]

Maybe moving north of Jamaica isnt good. Could really intensify!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6237ca.jpg

Yikes.