TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

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Scorpion

#21 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:36 pm

I notice some nice outflow to the northeast.
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jenmrk
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#22 Postby jenmrk » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:37 pm

Approx how long do the recon missons take?
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#23 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:37 pm

cinlfla wrote:I've been tracking the front blob you can see a little rotation underneath it.


From the last visibles and the 8:00 coordinates, I'm pretty sure the center is right in the middle of the first blob and I don't think it's going to miss the tip of Haiti by alot.
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rnbaida

#24 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:37 pm

Imagemodels cannot make up their mind!!!
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#25 Postby gopherfan21 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:38 pm

There is still a possibility it could hit Cuba and die there.


No. I believe we have had the discussion about Cuba's highlands many times before. No.
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#26 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:39 pm

Well I cannot spot the Low center on IR-Channel2, which isn't necesarilly a good thing
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#27 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:39 pm

If you put on the overlay, it looks like this is following the forecast track perfectly right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
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#28 Postby TampaFl » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:39 pm

Animated model plots from SFWMD showing trends.


http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2006

Robert 8-)
Last edited by TampaFl on Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Scorpion

#29 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:39 pm

Normandy wrote:Well I cannot spot the Low center on IR-Channel2, which isn't necesarilly a good thing


What do you mean?
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#30 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:40 pm

^Meaning its bad because the shear is lessening.
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rnbaida

#31 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:41 pm

what do you guys think winds will be at 11pm?
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#32 Postby Steve H. » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:41 pm

I didn't mean that his comment was necessarily funny, Alan could well be right. But I don't know about hitting Cuba and dieing. I don't think that's what he meant. Regarding the IR image above, the circulation is definitely in the leftmost blob. There is No Eye trying to form at this point. Once the ULL moves well out of the picture, the shear will drop off and we'll see a hurricane tomorrow at some point. That''s if it avoids land during the day tomorrow. Then we may see an eye, but I really think we won't see an eye 'til it gets into the SE GOM......(if it ever does) :wink:
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#33 Postby LSU2001 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:41 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

To me it looks like the ULL northwest of the storm is rapidly pulling away and disipating somewhat. this could lead to less shear and more strengthening. What do ya'll think?
tim
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#34 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:41 pm

maybe new center? between 2 blobs now?
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#35 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:43 pm

I don't expect much strengthening...it possibly could weaken during the next two days...it's just getting to shear and very dry air..
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#36 Postby cinlfla » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:43 pm

Steve H. wrote:I didn't mean that his comment was necessarily funny, Alan could well be right. But I don't know about hitting Cuba and dieing. I don't think that's what he meant. Regarding the IR image above, the circulation is definitely in the leftmost blob. There is No Eye trying to form at this point. Once the ULL moves well out of the picture, the shear will drop off and we'll see a hurricane tomorrow at some point. That''s if it avoids land during the day tomorrow. Then we may see an eye, but I really think we won't see an eye 'til it gets into the SE GOM......(if it ever does) :wink:



WEll in that case I have been tracking the right blob....yea me
DO you think a new center will form?
Last edited by cinlfla on Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#37 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:44 pm

Maybe moving north of Jamaica isnt good. Could really intensify!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6237ca.jpg


*edited by southerngale to make the image a link - too large
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Scorpion

#38 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:44 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I don't expect much strengthening...it possibly could weaken during the next two days...it's just getting to shear and very dry air..


No, this period was supposed to be the worst. Ernesto is just getting into more favorable conditions. See that ULL pulling out?
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#39 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:45 pm

nice outflow:

Image

between those two blobs the clouds are getting warming making me wonder!
Last edited by Trugunzn on Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#40 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:46 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Maybe moving north of Jamaica isnt good. Could really intensify!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6237ca.jpg


Yikes.
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