Texas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not even going to attempt to select an exact landfall city right now, but I think somewhere between Victoria,TX and New Orleans,LA looks most at risk ATM.

[Wx_Warrior]

Dont be so sure Sean...NO may have a new set of problems, as any of us, next Thursday!

[cajungal]

I'm going further East, Morgan City LA..... Texas will see a couple of outer rain bands. I could be wrong, just my Opinion.

That's the area I'm leaning toward right now... i.e., the only section of Louisiana that didn't get blasted by either Rita or Katrina.

Morgan City might of not got blasted by Rita. But, I live in Terrebonne Parish just 25 miles to the west. And the levees broke and sent over 8 ft of water into Houma. Places that never flooded before. People lost everything. A Morgan City landfall is the worse case scenerio for the Houma-Thibodaux area because we will be on the dirty side. I still have a gut feeling of possible Morgan City landfall with no scientific basis. Just going on gut feeling along, but it may change. I just wish I could blink and this storm would just disappear. I feel like during hurricane season I am like Forrest Gump, run, Forrest, run!

[Shoshana]

And hasn't the area between NOLA and Houston gotten a ton of rain already the last week or so?

[Senobia]

No, we haven't Shoshana

[Shoshana]

k. I thought I saw that both NO and HOU were in some kinda flood watch earlier today.

Maybe inbetween isn't...

TY

[Yankeegirl]

Not here... no rain here today... maybe tomorrow!!

[Deputy Van Halen]

I feel like during hurricane season I am like Forrest Gump, run, Forrest, run!

That's far preferable to Forrest Gump's partner, who steered his ship right into the face of the storm, laughing with glee. Ernesto may be bringing some folks to "peace with God" soon...

And hasn't the area between NOLA and Houston gotten a ton of rain already the last week or so?

More than the last week. It's been soggy here since late June. That, of course, is particularly bad news with a possible tropical storm coming. Flooding is a big risk, plus with the soft ground, it wouldn't take too fierce of a wind to start knocking over trees. Same thing happened with Alicia...soft ground plus Cat3 winds equaled trees falling over like bowling pins.

[LaBreeze]

Yes, here in SW LA (Vermilion Parish) we've had some rather strong tropical thunderstorms almost daily over the past few days - lots of severe cloud to ground lightning and downpours.

[LAStorm01]

The toe of LA got hit, then the heal, now the arch?

[Recurve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is no reason for a storm to go south of a trough, if there is a trough. Any weakness in the ridge or southerly steering will send it more northward. But that's all speculation, a BIG if.

<<<THIS IS ALL AMATEUR OBSERVATION>>>

No reason for anyone on the Gulf coast to let down their guard. Still too early to call. Monday would be the day to see possible landfall tracks shaping up. But really, don't forget that there's no reason at this point to say Anywhere from Mexico to the Big Bend is looking more or less likely. Only the southeast coast of florida is pretty much in the clear. I'll breathe easy once it gets west of 80W. No one is in the bullseye yet, and won't be for days.

You can have gut feelings/dread at this point for specific Louisiana parishes, but it is simply way too early. Hope for a ridge. Hope for shear.

[crazycajuncane]

I know it rained for close to an hour and a half and it caused the Campus at Louisiana Lafayette to flood. There were spots of 5-7 inches of water cause the drainage is horrible.

Today there was flooding on my way to work in Broussard. They picked up 2-3 inches in less that 2 hours. These tropical storms bring A LOT of rain and we needed it, but it seems like the rain is quickly catching up to us.

I'm starting to wonder where our buddy Mr. has been hiding.

[crazycajuncane]

You can have gut feelings/dread at this point for specific Louisiana parishes, but it is simply way too early. Hope for a ridge. Hope for shear.

Hard not to wonder if next week you'll be dealing with a Cat. whatever or not. I know a lot is going on around here with a big game between Louisiana Lafayette and LSU next Sat Night in Baton Rouge.... lot's of friends and family will be all over the state next weekend... now things may change. We all I'm sure have some sort of Labor Day weekend plans... now we've got the mets saying think about those other plans in case.... ya know Hurricane plans

[HouTXmetro]

I always thought LA had the greatest chance of being struck since yesterday. I'm still calling for a Morgan City area Landfall.

[Recurve]

the latest GFDL posted by SouthFla Wx in the model thread shows Ernesto right off Mobile Bay at 126 hours as a Cat 4.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88767&start=460

[Bailey1777]

Wrong those models depend on him moving in the direction they depict and he's not. They will shift back west tomorrow. I still say Freeport area IMO.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

a few days ago I was saying baffin bay to galveston bay ground zero matagorda bay, however now I feel I may have to move up from matagorda bay to vermillion bay, however it depends on high pressure cell sets up shop and where it will position mr .enrie to go, hope there are no burts in texas where ernie can come visit

[Steve]

>>There is no reason for a storm to go south of a trough, if there is a trough. Any weakness in the ridge or southerly steering will send it more northward. But that's all speculation, a BIG if.

Of course.

I went with Texas in the "place your bets thread". Like Kevin, I've seen the 00/06 models and they are now hinting at an Eastern NC Gulf hit (an obvious possibility). But as for there being "no reason for a storm to go south of a trough", I respectfully disagree. When was the last time you saw a storm in August get picked up by a trof? It doesn't happen too regularly (either Gulf or Atlantic) near or below 25N. Bottom line? Everyone's in play with a big question mark on possible strength.

Steve

[KatDaddy]

I agree with you Kevin after viewing the latest model runs this AM. Hoping the Upper TX Coast is safe from Ernesto. Its looking better for Galveston.

[Jagno]

No, we haven't Shoshana

Here in Lake Charles we've gotten pounded by storms over the past few days but luckily they were short lived and drainage was good.