Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

KNHC 260514
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 06 KNHC
0507 1606N 06833W 01464 0053 121 045 164 126 045 01550 0000000000
0507. 1605N 06834W 01464 0052 120 047 162 128 047 01549 0000000000
0508 1604N 06835W 01462 0052 119 046 158 144 047 01547 0000000000
0508. 1603N 06837W 01465 0052 117 049 158 144 051 01550 0000000000
0509 1603N 06839W 01462 0050 115 050 160 138 051 01545 0000000000
0509. 1603N 06841W 01463 0053 111 043 154 154 046 01549 0000000000
0510 1603N 06843W 01462 0051 112 041 156 152 042 01546 0000000000
0510. 1601N 06844W 01463 0049 111 041 158 156 042 01546 0000000000
0511 1600N 06845W 01463 0049 112 041 160 144 042 01545 0000000000
0511. 1558N 06846W 01464 0049 115 044 158 148 044 01546 0000000000
0512 1557N 06846W 01461 0048 118 044 160 144 044 01542 0000000000
0512. 1556N 06847W 01465 0047 116 044 158 156 049 01545 0000000000
0513 1554N 06848W 01464 0046 115 049 160 128 049 01543 0000000000
0513. 1553N 06849W 01460 0046 115 050 160 118 050 01539 0000000000
0514 1552N 06850W 01467 0046 115 048 162 122 049 01546 0000000000
0514. 1550N 06851W 01461 0045 113 045 164 128 047 01539 0000000000
0515 1549N 06852W 01463 0045 113 045 162 134 045 01541 0000000000
0515. 1547N 06853W 01463 0043 113 046 162 128 047 01539 0000000000
0516 1546N 06854W 01464 0043 112 046 160 128 047 01540 0000000000
0516. 1545N 06856W 01463 0042 110 045 160 132 046 01538 0000000000

51 knots=40.8 knots at the surface!

[SouthFloridawx]

SXXX50 KNHC 260514
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 06 KNHC
0507 1606N 06833W 01464 0053 121 045 164 126 045 01550 0000000000
0507. 1605N 06834W 01464 0052 120 047 162 128 047 01549 0000000000
0508 1604N 06835W 01462 0052 119 046 158 144 047 01547 0000000000
0508. 1603N 06837W 01465 0052 117 049 158 144 051 01550 0000000000
0509 1603N 06839W 01462 0050 115 050 160 138 051 01545 0000000000
0509. 1603N 06841W 01463 0053 111 043 154 154 046 01549 0000000000
0510 1603N 06843W 01462 0051 112 041 156 152 042 01546 0000000000
0510. 1601N 06844W 01463 0049 111 041 158 156 042 01546 0000000000
0511 1600N 06845W 01463 0049 112 041 160 144 042 01545 0000000000
0511. 1558N 06846W 01464 0049 115 044 158 148 044 01546 0000000000
0512 1557N 06846W 01461 0048 118 044 160 144 044 01542 0000000000
0512. 1556N 06847W 01465 0047 116 044 158 156 049 01545 0000000000
0513 1554N 06848W 01464 0046 115 049 160 128 049 01543 0000000000
0513. 1553N 06849W 01460 0046 115 050 160 118 050 01539 0000000000
0514 1552N 06850W 01467 0046 115 048 162 122 049 01546 0000000000
0514. 1550N 06851W 01461 0045 113 045 164 128 047 01539 0000000000
0515 1549N 06852W 01463 0045 113 045 162 134 045 01541 0000000000
0515. 1547N 06853W 01463 0043 113 046 162 128 047 01539 0000000000
0516 1546N 06854W 01464 0043 112 046 160 128 047 01540 0000000000
0516. 1545N 06856W 01463 0042 110 045 160 132 046 01538 0000000000

43.98 MPH

[SouthFloridawx]

0508. 1603N 06837W 01465 0052 117 049 158 144 051 01550 0000000000
0509 1603N 06839W 01462 0050 115 050 160 138 051 01545 0000000000

43.98

Just being conservative.

[Thunder44]

[mtm4319]

Here was the 51kt recon report:

[NONAME]

The plane is not at operational level right so those winds are not surface winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 51kt. report was not even in the convection!

[NONAME]

but is that at operational heights.

[mtm4319]

Multipliers (from P.K. in the Tropical Analysis forum):

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

51 knots was reported at 1500 meters, so the surface winds were between 38-41 knots.

[clfenwi]

but is that at operational heights.

Yes, they are flying at 850 millibar level / 1500 meters.

[Derek Ortt]

they are flying at 5K feet

flying at 1K at night is a quick way to crash the airplane

[Thunder44]

It doesn't really change the current intensity NHC has it now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Multipliers (from P.K. in the Tropical Analysis forum):

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

51 knots was reported at 1500 meters, so the surface winds were between 38-41 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 260524
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 07 KNHC
0517 1543N 06857W 01464 0041 111 045 160 134 045 01538 0000000000
0517. 1542N 06858W 01463 0041 110 044 160 136 044 01537 0000000000
0518 1541N 06900W 01463 0040 108 042 158 152 042 01536 0000000000
0518. 1540N 06901W 01464 0039 107 040 156 156 040 01536 0000000000
0519 1538N 06902W 01462 0038 106 043 160 152 044 01534 0000000000
0519. 1537N 06903W 01464 0037 105 040 162 158 040 01534 0000000000
0520 1536N 06905W 01462 0036 101 042 162 152 044 01531 0000000000
0520. 1535N 06906W 01463 0036 098 041 160 160 042 01532 0000000000
0521 1533N 06907W 01462 0036 097 041 160 160 042 01531 0000000000
0521. 1532N 06909W 01465 0035 094 040 164 164 041 01532 0000000000
0522 1530N 06909W 01462 0034 092 039 166 162 040 01529 0000000000
0522. 1529N 06910W 01463 0033 091 037 166 160 040 01528 0000000000
0523 1527N 06911W 01463 0033 091 035 166 166 035 01529 0000000000
0523. 1526N 06911W 01462 0031 093 037 164 164 038 01526 0000000000
0524 1524N 06911W 01463 0030 099 040 166 162 041 01526 0000000000
0524. 1522N 06911W 01464 0028 100 043 166 162 043 01525 0000000000
0525 1521N 06911W 01463 0027 099 048 174 162 049 01523 0000000000
0525. 1519N 06911W 01463 0026 101 047 174 170 049 01522 0000000000
0526 1518N 06911W 01463 0026 101 047 172 172 048 01522 0000000000
0526. 1516N 06911W 01462 0024 101 048 176 170 049 01519 0000000000

[mtm4319]

Flight level winds, not surface:

[CrazyC83]

Multipliers (from P.K. in the Tropical Analysis forum):

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

51 knots was reported at 1500 meters, so the surface winds were between 38-41 knots.

At a minimum, Ernesto is holding its intensity it looks like.

[Thunder44]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 260534
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 08 KNHC
0527 1515N 06911W 01464 0023 098 045 178 172 046 01520 0000000000
0527. 1513N 06911W 01464 0022 096 041 180 168 043 01518 0000000000
0528 1511N 06911W 01462 0021 096 040 176 172 041 01516 0000000000
0528. 1510N 06912W 01463 0020 097 038 160 160 039 01516 0000000000
0529 1508N 06912W 01463 0018 098 038 162 162 039 01514 0000000000
0529. 1507N 06912W 01463 0017 099 038 158 158 039 01513 0000000000
0530 1505N 06912W 01464 0016 099 036 162 162 038 01512 0000000000
0530. 1504N 06912W 01463 0015 102 039 170 170 040 01510 0000000000
0531 1502N 06912W 01462 0013 109 041 166 166 042 01507 0000000000
0531. 1500N 06912W 01463 0010 112 042 162 162 045 01506 0000000000
0532 1459N 06912W 01466 0007 107 039 148 148 040 01506 0000000000
0532. 1457N 06913W 01460 0005 104 039 152 152 040 01498 0000000000
0533 1456N 06913W 01466 0004 110 038 160 160 039 01503 0000000000
0533. 1454N 06913W 01464 0001 114 040 164 164 043 01498 0000000000
0534 1453N 06914W 01463 5003 121 038 158 158 039 01493 0000000000
0534. 1451N 06914W 01467 5004 136 031 160 160 034 01495 0000000000
0535 1450N 06914W 01458 5004 142 027 158 158 030 01487 0000000000
0535. 1449N 06915W 01465 5004 139 030 180 180 032 01494 0000000000
0536 1448N 06916W 01462 5007 133 028 184 184 031 01487 0000000000
0536. 1447N 06918W 01461 5009 132 027 184 184 027 01485 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

VDM comming.