Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[senorpepr]

Recon appears to have just left... early.

That's a training flight.

[craptacular]

Anyone think there should be a new thread started for tonight's recon?

[senorpepr]

Nah... we can use this thread.

[GeneratorPower]

Senorpepr, any chance they'll leave early?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When will we get reports in like we got with Beryl?

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[senorpepr]

Senorpepr, any chance they'll leave early?

Not really.

When will we get reports in like we got with Beryl?

Huh? What do you mean?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Every 6 hours with 3 or so vortexs a run?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[senorpepr]

Every 6 hours with 3 or so vortexs a run?

Ummm... whenever the NHC decides to go to that frequency. Remember, the number of VDMs in a mission depends on how far the plane has to fly to reach the storm. The trip to and from the storm takes a lot of fuel.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2006



since the reconnaissance aircraft departed from the tropical
storm...convection has deepened and expanded...but is still
displaced mostly east of the low-level center. The UW-CIMSS shear
analyses estimate about 15 kts of westerly shear currently
affecting Ernesto with stronger shear to the northwest. It has
been a bit difficult to determine the low-level center location and
consequently the initial intensity based upon the Dvorak shear
pattern. Due to the deepening convection and data T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB ranging from 35 kt to 45 kt...the initial intensity
has been bumped up to 40 kt. Reconnaissance aircraft will be back
in to investigate Ernesto at 0600 UTC to get a better handle on the
current position and intensity.
The initial motion is 285/14. A low- to mid-level ridge across the
southwest Atlantic continues to steer Ernesto on a west-northwest
track and should continue to do so for the next 48 to 72 hours...and
the models are in tight agreement during this period. The track
forecast becomes a bit tricky on days 4 and 5...when a weakness in
the steering pattern develops across the central Gulf of Mexico
forecast by most of the models. The official track forecast keeps
Ernesto on a general northwestward track over the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently an upper-level low is situated over eastern Cuba and
Jamaica with strong west-southwesterly winds to its southeast.
Water vapor imagery indicates this upper-level low is moving rapidly
to the west-southwest...and the models are in close agreement that
the low should end up along the eastern coast of Mainland Mexico in
3 to 4 days. This scenario should provide a very weak shear
environment for Ernesto to strengthen...and in fact the SHIPS
guidance forecasts the shear to weaken considerably in 36-48 hours
and remain weak through day 5. The official intensity forecast
over the Gulf of Mexico is nudged upward...since most of the
intensity guidance indicates an even stronger intensity than shown
below.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 14.8n 69.1w 40 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 15.6n 71.1w 45 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 16.6n 73.7w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 17.8n 76.4w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 19.0n 79.0w 60 kt...near Jamaica
72hr VT 29/0000z 22.0n 84.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 24.0n 87.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 26.0n 90.0w 85 kt

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL
STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL
DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS
BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK
IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS
ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN
BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[clfenwi]

Every 6 hours with 3 or so vortexs a run?

Here's the guidelines:

- Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of
landfall and west of 55ºW in the Atlantic.
- Up to eight 3-hourly fixes per day when a storm is forecast to be
within 300 nm of the U.S. coast, Hawaiian Islands, Puerto Rico,
Virgin Islands, DOD installations, and other DOD assets when
specified. (source: http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/06/pdf/g-chap5.pdf )

According to the POD 6-hourly fixes will start tommorow afternoon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 260410
AF302 0503A ERNESTO HDOB 01 KNHC
0403 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 258 240 000 00001 0000000000
0403. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 256 244 000 00001 0000000000
0404 1742N 06448W 00000 5003 360 000 256 246 000 00000 0000000000
0404. 1742N 06448W 00000 5004 360 000 254 246 000 00000 0000000000
0405 1742N 06448W 00000 5005 360 000 256 248 000 00001 0000000000
0405. 1742N 06448W 00000 5006 360 000 256 250 000 00000 0000000000
0406 1742N 06448W 00000 5007 360 000 252 252 000 00000 0000000000
0406. 1742N 06449W 00000 5009 360 000 250 250 000 00000 0000000000
0407 1742N 06449W 00003 5011 360 000 250 250 000 00001 0000000000
0407. 1742N 06449W 00004 5013 360 000 250 250 000 00001 0000000000
0408 1742N 06449W 00005 5014 360 000 246 246 000 00001 0000000000
0408. 1742N 06449W 00006 5014 360 000 250 250 000 00001 0000000000
0409 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 250 000 00001 0000000000
0409. 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 238 000 00000 0000000000
0410 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 238 000 00000 0000000000
0410. 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 234 000 00000 0000000000
0411 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 232 000 00000 0000000000
0411. 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 234 000 00000 0000000000
0412 1742N 06449W 00006 5015 360 000 250 244 000 00000 0000000000
0412. 1742N 06449W 00006 5014 360 000 250 242 000 00001 0000000000

[craptacular]

The real one is rolling.

[craptacular]

Matt, are you making it a long night?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah!

[Thunder44]

I'll be putting up maps for as long I'm awake.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 260424
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 01 KNHC
0417 1741N 06442W 01339 0086 119 021 168 152 021 01457 0000000000
0417. 1739N 06443W 01442 0092 103 021 164 146 022 01566 0000000000
0418 1738N 06445W 01462 0093 110 021 160 138 022 01587 0000000000
0418. 1738N 06447W 01462 0093 122 024 162 142 025 01592 0000000000
0419 1738N 06449W 01651 0101 125 023 156 130 024 01790 0000000000
0419. 1738N 06452W 02030 0122 125 022 134 110 025 02192 0000000000
0420 1738N 06454W 02345 0132 126 022 116 090 023 02524 0000000000
0420. 1737N 06456W 02621 0147 128 023 098 080 023 02816 0000000000
0421 1736N 06458W 02916 0164 129 023 080 068 023 03129 0000000000
0421. 1735N 06500W 03194 0185 124 022 066 054 023 03430 0000000000
0422 1735N 06502W 03436 0199 114 023 050 046 024 03687 0000000000
0422. 1734N 06504W 03682 0214 109 022 040 022 023 03948 0000000000
0423 1734N 06506W 03914 0228 112 023 022 014 024 04195 0000000000
0423. 1733N 06508W 04122 0238 104 023 006 006 024 04416 0000000000
0424 1733N 06510W 04329 0225 100 024 003 003 025 04633 0000000000
0424. 1732N 06513W 04544 0240 105 022 011 011 023 04865 0000000000
0425 1732N 06515W 04752 0266 112 021 023 025 023 05099 0000000000
0425. 1731N 06517W 04857 0274 105 019 031 037 019 05213 0000000000
0426 1730N 06519W 04869 0277 099 019 031 035 019 05227 0000000000
0426. 1730N 06522W 04864 0278 089 018 033 035 018 05223 0000000000

[Thunder44]